Author Topic: The MLB Thread  (Read 615057 times)

vansmack

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1290 on: June 25, 2015, 09:47:29 am »
I had no dog in the fight, but the Rays/Jays game I attended today may have been the most exciting MLB game I've ever attended.

And sadly, my wife actually loved Tropicana Field.

Wow, you were there for that?  Quite the pitchers duel - I turned it on in the 5th when he was perfect....
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shemptiness

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Space Freely

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1292 on: June 26, 2015, 11:53:36 am »
I had no dog in the fight, but the Rays/Jays game I attended today may have been the most exciting MLB game I've ever attended.

And sadly, my wife actually loved Tropicana Field.

Wow, you were there for that?  Quite the pitchers duel - I turned it on in the 5th when he was perfect....

Yep, that was it.

Space Freely

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1293 on: June 26, 2015, 11:56:33 am »
At 26-25, the tie for first is the worst record to lead the AL East on June 1 in the history of the division.

And just 25 days later, the AL East has four teams  four or more games above .500, is +12 overall for W/L, and +115 on overal run differential.

vansmack

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1294 on: June 27, 2015, 08:51:46 pm »
An errant Angels warmup throw between innings just concussed Robinsons Cano.  #because,Seattle

Also, they?re the most consistent .500 team, going 5-5 in their last 10, 10-10 in their past 20 and 15-15 in their last 30.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2015, 02:28:46 am by vansmack »
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shemptiness

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1295 on: June 28, 2015, 12:42:29 pm »
An errant Angels warmup throw between innings just concussed Robinsons Cano.  #because,Seattle

Also, they?re the most consistent .500 team, going 5-5 in their last 10, 10-10 in their past 20 and 15-15 in their last 30.


Kubacheck

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1296 on: June 28, 2015, 01:52:53 pm »
^^^ Jesus, look how far back (and fast) that ball rebounds off his head.....

shemptiness

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1297 on: June 29, 2015, 05:03:55 pm »

vansmack

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1298 on: June 29, 2015, 10:34:27 pm »
Why Bryce Harper is eclipsing Mike Trout in fantasy baseball
Ron Shandler, Fantasy

It's taken four years, but the planets are finally starting to align.

Coming into the 2011 season, the fantasy world was excited about the arrival of two of the most talented prospects the sport had ever seen. Bryce Harper was the consensus No. 1 prospect coming into that season. Mike Trout was safely within the top five.

Both were supposed to take the sport by storm. Yet both were still years from being able to share a beer legally. It had been a long time since such talented players might make an impact at such a young age.

The scouting reports described Harper as having prodigious power. That was an easy call after he hit 31 home runs in only 228 at-bats in his last year at the College of South Nevada. Trout had tremendous speed, amassing 56 stolen bases at two Class A stops in 2010.

Harper was the power guy. Trout was the speed guy.

In the four years since, each has taken a different path.

Trout hit the ground running, posting a historic 2012 campaign -- 30 homers, 49 stolen bases, .326 batting average -- and has maintained elite productivity every year since. He has fulfilled the speed expectations and added far more power than anyone expected.

Harper has battled inconsistency and injuries -- knee bursitis in 2013, a torn thumb ligament in 2014 -- that have cost him much playing time. Along the way, there were small signs that he might one day reach the potential we had expected.

And as of Sunday:

Trout Vs. Harper
PLAYER   HR   RBI   R   SB   AVG   R$
Mike Trout   18   41   52   8   0.304   $33
Bryce Harper   24   57   52   3   0.345   $41
Note: R$ is short for rotisserie value, a gauge that is benched against the caliber of offense each season.

Some analysts believe that once these players' careers are over, Harper will have the more impressive lifetime stat line.

That's a bold statement, and somewhat counterintuitive given the huge head start Trout has in this race. But it might not be completely off the wall.

For starters, both are still ridiculously young. Neither is old enough to rent a car at the "adult" rate. It's conceivable that both could be looking at careers that extend beyond 20 years.

Here are some interesting trends from Trout's career so far:

Mike Trout Production, 2011-2015
YEAR   BA   OBA   SLG   CT%   BABIP   R$
2011   .220   .281   .390   76%   .247   -$2
2012   .326   .399   .564   75%   .383   $45
2013   .323   .432   .557   77%   .376   $43
2014   .287   .377   .561   69%   .349   $38
2015   .304   .386   .581   75%   .341   $37

Typically we'd expect to see some growth during the early years of a player's career. Trout's trends are mostly flat or declining, clearly because he started out at such a high level. His batting average on balls in play has been normalizing over time, indicating that his future batting averages might settle closer to .300 than .325.

And despite the high levels, his rotisserie value -- a gauge that is benched against the caliber of offense each season -- has also been in a slow decline.

After Trout's 2012 breakout, I was asked what the chances were that it would be the best year of his career. I said "99 percent." I'll stand by that statement.

Here are the similar gauges for Harper:

Bryce Harper Production, 2012-2015
YEAR   BA   OBA   SLG   CT%   BABIP   R$
2012   .270   .340   .477   77%   .310   $23
2013   .274   .368   .486   78%   .306   $20
2014   .273   .344   .423   70%   .352   $10
2015   .345   .473   .735   75%   .370   $42

While there are similarly flat trends for some of these metrics, Harper's 2015 performance to this point far exceeds anything he's done before. We don't know whether he can sustain these levels for three more months, or if he can even stay healthy during that time, but these numbers do exceed those Trout is currently producing.

Admittedly, it's not a strong argument for either player's Hall of Fame worthiness 25 years from now. But if these four years represent just the beginning of a 20-year run, there's still plenty of time for either to win this battle.

A look at future fantasy stars

For those fantasy leaguers entranced by each year's shiny new things, Harper and Trout are both old news. The important names now are players like Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, Joc Pederson and Carlos Correa.

It seems the hype that preceded these players was exceeded only by the rush to roster them. Is chasing the hype always the best approach? And if we use Trout and Harper as the benchmarks for levels worth chasing, how has this year's young talent crop measured up so far?

Rookie Production, Rotisserie Value
PLAYER   BA   OBA   SLG   CT%   BABIP   R$
Kris Bryant   0.277   0.379   0.455   65%   0.386   $22
Joey Gallo   0.222   0.319   0.476   54%   0.310   $4
Byron Buxton   0.120   0.185   0.200   64%   0.386   -$3
Joc Pederson   0.251   0.392   0.541   65%   0.301   $23
Carlos Correa   0.304   0.328   0.536   73%   0.368   $6

These are all small samples, but you can still see which players are already lacking in some key metrics.

The biggest takeaway? Almost all have depressed contact rates, a key skill that will filter down into all their other stats. Players who can't manage a 72 percent level could wind up looking up at a .250 batting average.

This is what immediately separates this group from any thought that they could approach Trout/Harper levels. Note that both Trout and Harper showed significantly better contact in their rookie year than any of this year's top prospects.

But all is not lost. Buxton had a 78 percent contact rate at two minor league stops this year. Correa's contact rate was up above 80 percent while in the minors. While they might not have the same level of power as players like Bryant, Gallo and Pederson, Buxton and Correa might have more long-term potential.

The big power bats will likely be feast-or-famine commodities. They might be Giancarlo Stanton one year, Chris Carter the next, so be prepared for both of those outcomes.
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grateful

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1299 on: June 30, 2015, 06:50:42 am »
Thank you for this important analysis.

shemptiness

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1300 on: June 30, 2015, 12:16:21 pm »
Hello 'Moneyball'

'Dipoto, according to sources, believes that the coaches too often rely on ?feel? while teams such as the AL West-leading Astros are at the forefront of incorporating data. The coaches, in turn, seemingly do not trust the information they are given, and either are not willing or able to translate it for the players.'

vansmack

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1301 on: June 30, 2015, 01:19:42 pm »
Hello 'Moneyball'

'Dipoto, according to sources, believes that the coaches too often rely on ?feel? while teams such as the AL West-leading Astros are at the forefront of incorporating data. The coaches, in turn, seemingly do not trust the information they are given, and either are not willing or able to translate it for the players.'

Pujols was the most vocal to Dipoto about how last years team was stronger offensively.  That's not good..
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vansmack

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1302 on: June 30, 2015, 01:20:47 pm »
Thank you for this important analysis.

I'm available upon request.

However, using fantasy analysis to decide who's better is an amazingly poor way to go about it...
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Kubacheck

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1303 on: June 30, 2015, 05:05:17 pm »
Thank you for this important analysis.

I'm available upon request.

However, using fantasy analysis to decide who's better is an amazingly poor way to go about it...

unless you're drafting a fantasy team....

vansmack

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Re: The MLB Thread
« Reply #1304 on: July 01, 2015, 09:14:27 am »
Hello 'Moneyball'

'Dipoto, according to sources, believes that the coaches too often rely on ?feel? while teams such as the AL West-leading Astros are at the forefront of incorporating data. The coaches, in turn, seemingly do not trust the information they are given, and either are not willing or able to translate it for the players.'

Pujols was the most vocal to Dipoto about how last years team was stronger offensively.  That's not good..

DiPoto reportedly packed up his office last night. This is not the right year for me to change jobs....
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