Author Topic: Maybe we should just elect Trump president  (Read 904475 times)

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #855 on: February 23, 2016, 05:08:39 pm »
Trump 42
Rubio 26
Cruz 22
Kasich 7
Carson 5
Quoted for posterity before he attempts to change it when he realizes his numbers add up to 102%.
LVMH

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #856 on: February 23, 2016, 05:18:03 pm »
Ironically, they could both still beat you.

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #857 on: February 23, 2016, 05:18:46 pm »
The SideHutch combo poll average which comes reasonably close to 100%:

Trump 40
Rubio 25.5
Cruz 25
Kasich 5
Carson 3
Deez Nuts 1
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Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #858 on: February 23, 2016, 05:19:30 pm »
Ironically, they could both still beat you.
Yes, they very well could. And there would be no shame in losing to the SideHutch Combo Poll Average. None at all.
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hutch

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #859 on: February 23, 2016, 06:04:32 pm »
listen Julian, you got zero cred as its pretty plain you are just rehashing nate silver's polls plus numbers...


i may revisit my numbers as i'm disheartened by how close to yours and sidehatch they are....

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #860 on: February 23, 2016, 07:02:51 pm »

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #861 on: February 23, 2016, 07:43:51 pm »
listen Julian, you got zero cred as its pretty plain you are just rehashing nate silver's polls plus numbers...


i may revisit my numbers as i'm disheartened by how close to yours and sidehatch they are....
Nate Silver is aggregating polls and weighting certain ones more. I  doing the same with a different blend. If we come out close, it's because we are using the same (publicly available) data in. If you want to get into a statistical fight with "guesses" against people who are actually spending some time doing research and looking at numbers, that's not on me. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

EDIT: ftr, I credit Rasmussen much higher than 538.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2016, 07:46:11 pm by Julian, Authenticated LUXUROPHILE »
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hutch

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #862 on: February 23, 2016, 07:56:20 pm »
listen Julian, you got zero cred as its pretty plain you are just rehashing nate silver's polls plus numbers...


i may revisit my numbers as i'm disheartened by how close to yours and sidehatch they are....
Nate Silver is aggregating polls and weighting certain ones more. I  doing the same with a different blend. If we come out close, it's because we are using the same (publicly available) data in. If you want to get into a statistical fight with "guesses" against people who are actually spending some time doing research and looking at numbers, that's not on me. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

EDIT: ftr, I credit Rasmussen much higher than 538.

well its awfully convenient that you're coming out with exact the same numbers.. same thing you did in SC...even Nevada you just copied his prediction to the decimal!

if your guesses are just going to be Nate Silver regurgitated then there isn't any point...anybody can do that..


Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #863 on: February 23, 2016, 08:16:29 pm »
listen Julian, you got zero cred as its pretty plain you are just rehashing nate silver's polls plus numbers...


i may revisit my numbers as i'm disheartened by how close to yours and sidehatch they are....
Nate Silver is aggregating polls and weighting certain ones more. I  doing the same with a different blend. If we come out close, it's because we are using the same (publicly available) data in. If you want to get into a statistical fight with "guesses" against people who are actually spending some time doing research and looking at numbers, that's not on me. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

EDIT: ftr, I credit Rasmussen much higher than 538.

well its awfully convenient that you're coming out with exact the same numbers.. same thing you did in SC...even Nevada you just copied his prediction to the decimal!

if your guesses are just going to be Nate Silver regurgitated then there isn't any point...anybody can do that..


I mean, he's average polls with some weight. An averaging of polls with no weighting is like 98% similar to Silver. Am I just not supposed to look at polls at all? Seriously asking. Are we just supposed to guess? Is reading coverage poisoning the well?
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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #864 on: February 23, 2016, 08:21:59 pm »
I'm picking the Chargers to go all the way.

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #865 on: February 23, 2016, 08:25:22 pm »
Let me explain my process. I take the 538 and realpol polls lists. Find the mean. Average that with the Rasmussen poll. Then I make micro-adjustments based on my own reading of the race. (For example if 2 people are within a percentage but I feel the order is wrong like in SC, I'll re order. Or if someone is several points off ill arbitrarily soften the difference and attach the extra percentage to the top candidates - why my % were so far off on bottom three in SC). Then I make sure my numbers add up to 100% and arbitrarily add the tenths of percentages needed to make it do so. It's not scientific but it has the veneer thereof. In other words, it's somewhat proprietary to me.
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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #866 on: February 23, 2016, 09:41:45 pm »
come on relaxer, your going to sit this one out again!
Hope she went down on you!
slack

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #867 on: February 24, 2016, 09:54:15 am »
Well done, Hutch. Other than the bottom two (which we all got wrong), you were pretty spot on.
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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #868 on: February 24, 2016, 10:01:30 am »
In other words, it's somewhat proprietary to me.

Until now.  Mwahahaha.  Mwahahaha! MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA!
« Last Edit: February 24, 2016, 10:06:02 am by jaded »

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Maybe we should just elect Trump president
« Reply #869 on: February 24, 2016, 10:10:11 am »
In other words, it's somewhat proprietary to me.

Until now.  Mwahahaha.  Mwahahaha! MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA!
I'M RUINED!!!
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