The 2020 thread....

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

I'm a little shocked that Trumps approval rating avg on 538 is still in the 40s

He was in the 36-37 around the Comey firing in May 2017
He was around 39 during the gov't shutdown

I know it's unlikely that he'll go below 35 even if he shoots someone on 5th ave
I would have thought it would have been lower considering the last 4 weeks/4 months

He does look like he's getting it where it hurts in the swing states
Biden...has an average advantage of 3 points or greater in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin...which is all that really matters

Alas, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people

‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.

Also, if you ask the top brass at the GOP "is trump going to win" for a news article that will appear in politico, of course, they are going to say "we are going to win in a landslide" and not have to back it up with actual facts

[kosmo vinyl]

Alas, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people

So much truth in this, given the fact that some feel being asked/required to wear a  mask is unconstitutional...

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

some feel being asked/required to wear a  mask is unconstitutional...

[kosmo vinyl]

some feel being asked/required to wear a  mask is unconstitutional...

The GIF game is very strong here...

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

I'm a little shocked that Trumps approval rating avg on 538 is still in the 40s

He was in the 36-37 around the Comey firing in May 2017
He was around 39 during the gov't shutdown

I know it's unlikely that he'll go below 35 even if he shoots someone on 5th ave
I would have thought it would have been lower considering the last 4 weeks/4 months

He does look like he's getting it where it hurts in the swing states
Biden...has an average advantage of 3 points or greater in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin...which is all that really matters

Alas, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people

‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.

Also, if you ask the top brass at the GOP "is trump going to win" for a news article that will appear in politico, of course, they are going to say "we are going to win in a landslide" and not have to back it up with actual facts

I think one of the important distinctions is polling of likely voters shows over 50+% very likely voting for Biden — a mark Hillary never got over. It is super hard to get people to change their mind once it’s made up, a reason Trumps approva rating floor is so high, but also a giant concern for him because that 50+% consistent figure for Biden gives him a very narrow electoral needle to thread to victory. Much more narrow than the one in 2016.

[hutch]

Not to mention what sidehatch refuses to accept: Hillary was leading until James Comey interfered


Some people just can’t accept that


The polls weren’t actually very wrong if at all but some people just want to believe what they want to believe




Why did Hillary go speak in Michigan or close her campaign in Pennsylvania? Cause they knew...they had the polls

Of course one shouldn’t walk around telling people it’s in the bag don’t bother to vote....everyone should vote..duh


But I would argue the situation is only improving for Biden with the spike in covid in FL and AZ...

Add that spike to what happened in MI and PA - key electoral states-from covid and I really think the outlook for Trump is pretty dire

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Not to mention what sidehatch refuses to accept: Hillary was leading until James Comey interfered

can confirm

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

I think one of the important distinctions is polling of likely voters shows over 50+% very likely voting for Biden

didn't smakie post an Economist article that Dems pretty much have to get 53-54% of the popular vote to win the Electoral college

I don't know how the GOP can look at you with a straight face and say that is a fair election

[hutch]

They don’t! They look at you with a straight face and tell you it’s rigged against them!

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

I think one of the important distinctions is polling of likely voters shows over 50+% very likely voting for Biden

didn't smakie post an Economist article that Dems pretty much have to get 53-54% of the popular vote to win the Electoral college

If he did, then either The Economist is wrong or you are missing some nuance. Hillary was 100,000 votes away from an electoral win and only garnered 48.x% of the popular vote. 53% might be some figure that guarantees it when you normalize for states but anyone telling you there is no path for Biden to win electoral college with a mere 51-49% popular vote lead is wrong. The demographics (especially in suburbs) have changed in 3.5 years.

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

If he did, then either The Economist is wrong or you are missing some nuance.

Both those seem likely candidates

[hutch]

Ugh..I have to go with candidate b

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Is it wrong for me to get joy out of the stories coming from this twitter account
Republican Voters Against Trump @RVAT2020

[grateful]

I'm a little shocked that Trumps approval rating avg on 538 is still in the 40s

He was in the 36-37 around the Comey firing in May 2017
He was around 39 during the gov't shutdown

I know it's unlikely that he'll go below 35 even if he shoots someone on 5th ave
I would have thought it would have been lower considering the last 4 weeks/4 months

He does look like he's getting it where it hurts in the swing states
Biden...has an average advantage of 3 points or greater in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin...which is all that really matters

Alas, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people

‘We’re thinking landslide’: Beyond D.C., GOP officials see Trump on glide path to reelection
Conventional indicators suggest the president’s bid for a second term is in jeopardy. But state and local GOP officials see a different election unfolding.

Also, if you ask the top brass at the GOP "is trump going to win" for a news article that will appear in politico, of course, they are going to say "we are going to win in a landslide" and not have to back it up with actual facts

No matter what you do or how you look at it, 1/3 of America is and will always be crazy.

http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2005/10/lunch-discussions-145-crazification.html

[hutch]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/18/politics/americans-unhappy-polling-analysis/index.html