930 Forums
=> GENERAL DISCUSSION => Topic started by: edbert on October 28, 2003, 10:21:00 am
-
anyone ever go there to see a concert taping- was it a fun experience or a hassle? Are all the performances some fixed length? Most importantly, what are the parking options in the middle of the day?
-
how do you find out about these? are they always during the day?
-
funny you should mention this... i'm off right now to see a taping of the romantics with 44 other fans :D full details later!
-
Me too. Me too. Is there free parking on the street around there, a garage or what?
-
Inre finding out about these- I just happened to go to the Romantics website to sample their new tracks after reading a review, and there was a message there about it. I'm guessing that it's usually some combination of band guestlist and XM employees on their lunch hour at these
-
They have an unbelievable studio. Sonically it is completely dead and everything is state of the art. The nice thing is, when bands go through there the recording generated is pretty much complete and ready to stick on a CD. They might want to remix a bit but that's often not gonna be necessary. Hopefully we'll see lots of bands walk out of that place with a practically free ready-made live CD...
But that "talking in your sleep" song... arghhhh.... it's up there with "every breath you take" in the over-played to death category....
-
but is there anyway you can sign up for notifications of these tapings thru xm?
-
Originally posted by lily1:
but is there anyway you can sign up for notifications of these tapings thru xm?
Just be really nice to paige and she'll hook a sister up I'm sure.
-
I'm back from my little field trip to XM which was quite fun. Wow! Amazing facilities there, how are they ever gonna make money? I guess they're saving by not getting the best air talent- the host dj Bruce was such a bad communicator it's hard to believe he gets paid for talking. A couple of the other djs were there including miss super-sexpot heidi selexa ("who puts the X in XM"), unfortunately sitting directly behind me so I couldn't ogle her during the show. Romantics were solid and the sound was great. Had fun hanging out with kozmo before the show. Fugazi will apparently be playing there soon
-
Maybe you scared him? Bruce Kelly was very engaging and quite a gabber when I met him a while back. Mercury is quite a talent, too...
They're gonna make more money than the bureau of engraving and printing as the subscribers pour in and the cost of running the operation remains relatively flat -- it cost x billion dollars to serve the first customer but zero to serve the second customer... scalability, my boy... if you're not yet a subscriber definitely check it out...
-
I can get WRNR loud and clear even though I live in DC. Yeah I'd get XM if it weren't for that
-
Originally posted by J'Mal:
They're gonna make more money than the bureau of engraving and printing as the subscribers pour in and the cost of running the operation remains relatively flat -- it cost x billion dollars to serve the first customer but zero to serve the second customer... scalability, my boy... if you're not yet a subscriber definitely check it out...
How many subscribers can they realistically get?
How much in Senior Secured Debt is outstanding?
How much Convertible Preferred was issued to General Motors, Honda, DirecTV Clear Channel, Columbia Capital, et al...?
How long will they continue to need new funding?
-
When am I going to get a new job?
-
Originally posted by ggw™:
How many subscribers can they realistically get?
Eventually satellite radio will be standard in all cars, to the extent of air conditioning or other former luxuries that became necessities. That, plus home and commercial applications, and seeing as they're likely going to get 75% of the market, I'd say upwards of 100m subscribers.
How much in Senior Secured Debt is outstanding?
You can look it up in the 10-K. Anyone's guess but my calculation is full dilution will come in at about 200m shares. They're very aggressive at reducing the dilution, for example, they instituted a DSPP earlier this year and used the funds to retire a bunch of convertible warrants with a 3.18 strike price. Debt service isn't a problem, they're going to be CFBE next year.
How much Convertible Preferred was issued to General Motors, Honda, DirecTV Clear Channel, Columbia Capital, et al...?
See above.
How long will they continue to need new funding?
They don't. They're fully funded to CFBE next fall, but they might actually reap a windfall when the insurance $ on the satellite issues comes in, since they floated a little secondary to fund construction and replacement of the satellites and now the insurance companies can go get fucked. XM has already suggested what they'd do with the extra cash -- take out dilution.
These guys are smart, they're smarter than you and me put together to the nth degree and even smarter than rhett.
As for WRNR, or whatever, sorry, it's OK for regular radio but 99 channels less than XM and not as good as the comparable XM channels, XMU 43/XM Cafe 45.
-
Originally posted by thirsty moore:
When am I going to get a new job?
Reply Hazy Try Again
-
Why on earth do you think they'll get 75% of the market?
And how many alternative, indie, etc. channels do they have? Unless it's 10 or more, I'm not even considering it.
-
Originally posted by Bagster:
Why on earth do you think they'll get 75% of the market?
And how many alternative, indie, etc. channels do they have? Unless it's 10 or more, I'm not even considering it.
Well, right now they have about 87% of the market. Congress will not permit the FCC to issue any more satellite radio licenses until at least 2007 and there just isn't the spectrum available, not to mention the barriers to entry are hideous (it's very expensive to get the satellites up, and all the distribution channels are pretty much locked up). The only other competitor, sirius, just makes mistake after mistake and is behind in every conceivable way imaginable, from a screwy satellite configuration that makes home reception difficult, to chipset and hardware design problems, to inferior programming (very heavy on talk, with very repetitive hits-based music)....
There is a new indie channel and a classic alternative channel, as well as a mainstream alternative channel and a hard alternative channel. So I guess that's about 4. And each of them is light years ahead of the crap you get on FM. You don't actually NEED ten indie channels, because you really can leave it on one really good one all day.
Anyway, there's no reason not to try it. If there's something wrong with you and you don't like the service, just return the equipment. There's no contract and they pro-rate it if you paid in advance.
-
Originally posted by mankie:
Originally posted by lily1:
but is there anyway you can sign up for notifications of these tapings thru xm?
Just be really nice to paige and she'll hook a sister up I'm sure. [/b]
maybe :D or you can just check out xmradio.com and they have some good info there.
i'm glad everyone who went liked it!! xm is such an awesome building. although i would get stir crazy when i was down in Music 6 (XMLM) it was always insanely dark. when i would go outside, the sun would be so bright i felt like i was going to die. random story, i know.
xm/satellite radio services will soon become fairly commonplace i'm sure. look at dvds - remember when they used to seem so state of the art?
-
i'll just say it was very cool being able to see a band that rocked my formative years in such a intimate setting... there were 20 of us there. the band sounds great and i gonna get my hands of thier new cd sharpish.
according to one of the xmradio folks they will announce upcoming taping on the website but that getting info on how to get the invite list will come from the band or record label.
i knew that "talking in your sleep" would be mentioned and while the song, and but not the video, was a bit cringeworthy. the band has stripped the gloss and it now rocks harder than the orginial version. even the orginial recording is miles better than most of whats consider top 40 today. the band hopes to start playing the clubs again and even without monster drummer clem burke, johnny "bee" bancky(?) fills out the seat quite nicely.
-
Originally posted by J'Mal:
Originally posted by Bagster:
Why on earth do you think they'll get 75% of the market?
And how many alternative, indie, etc. channels do they have? Unless it's 10 or more, I'm not even considering it.
Well, right now they have about 87% of the market. Congress will not permit the FCC to issue any more satellite radio licenses until at least 2007[/b]
Okay, you're talking percentage of the satellite market -- I thought you were talking radio market. Still, 100 million subscribers seems like an awful lot; how many are there now?
I don't listen to radio at all (except Howard Stern every morning). So I'm not comparing it to that. And it's true, if the alternative station is like WOXY or KEXP, I suppose one or two good ones would do. Do they post their playlists anywhere so you can peruse them to see what they play?
-
Originally posted by kosmo vinyl:
i'll just say it was very cool being able to see a band that rocked my formative years in such a intimate setting... there were 20 of us there. the band sounds great and i gonna get my hands of thier new cd sharpish.
Very awesome, Kosmo. I grew up in Clearwater, FLA, and one year while I was in high school, so like '84 - '85, The Romantics played Busch Gardens, which was SO cool because it was at night after the park closed, but the rides were all open! And there was beer, and I had a good fake I.D. What a great night that was. You're right, the Romantics really rock more than folks remember....
-
So this Bruce Kelly guy is talking to the band between tunes- and the singer is talking about The Kinks and other stuff that inspired him in the 60's- [Bruce:] " Yes, me too, I'm based on all that stuff... the..uhh.... DC5, and ... um" [Romantics singer:] "MC5??" [Bruce:] "MC5, yeah!"
-
Originally posted by Bagster:
Okay, you're talking percentage of the satellite market -- I thought you were talking radio market. Still, 100 million subscribers seems like an awful lot; how many are there now?
They hit 1 million subscribers this week.
I recall reading that XM projected a market of over 40 million. Sirius will eventually go bankrupt so they are not much of a problem.
I'd guess they need roughly 10,000,000 subscribers just to cover annual operating expenses and their guaranteed payments to GM. I don't think they will get to that point next year. Moreover, they've raised $2.0 billion in capital, so there are a lot of hands in the pot.
I think they will do fine in the end, but it will be several years before they get there.
-
The Romantics are about the nicest bunch of guys you'll ever see... lots of autographs and taking pictures with the fans.
I asked if there were any plans for a club tour I the near future and the answer was yes. Some may disagree but seeing them in the parking lot of a football stadium lacks the same atomsphere of seeing them sweatin' in a club.
-
Originally posted by ggw™:
They hit 1 million subscribers this week.
Not exactly. They announced they did 1m "recently," but for obvious reasons won't say exactly when. At the Q3 run rate it would be 10/26 but probably more like 10/20-10/22 for reasons too extended to discuss here.
I recall reading that XM projected a market of over 40 million. Sirius will eventually go bankrupt so they are not much of a problem.
40m is very low. For example, there are 16m new cars sold each year. GM, which is rapidly moving toward making XM available throughout its line, moves 5m of those.
Sirius will either go bankrupt or have another constructive bankruptcy to screw the shareholders but their SDARS license belongs to the bondholders and the signal will continue in some form or other. But some of their mistakes have really cost them permanently.
I'd guess they need roughly 10,000,000 subscribers just to cover annual operating expenses and their guaranteed payments to GM.
Nope. They've consistently stated cash flow break even -- where cash takes care of operating expenses -- is 2.4m subs and that happens no later than November, 2004. True profitability is later, yes. The GM deal is a bargain.
Moreover, they've raised $2.0 billion in capital, so there are a lot of hands in the pot.
Well, make sure one of those hands is yours. Or, don't get rich. Your choice. Fact is there are not enough shares out there. The float is some 100m shares, of which 40m are out short, and whenever some mutual fund says "get me $10m of XM," there goes a half million shares.
----------------------
Bagster --
Here's the page for XMU, the indie channel...
http://www.xmradio.com/programming/channel_page.jsp?ch=43 (http://www.xmradio.com/programming/channel_page.jsp?ch=43)
Most recently available playlist:
http://www.xmradio.com/pdf/XMU-Musiculum-10.20.03.pdf (http://www.xmradio.com/pdf/XMU-Musiculum-10.20.03.pdf)
-
I think you're making a big leap that to think that, because GM will put the equipment in the cars, every new car owner will become a subscriber.
And from what I've heard, the new cars that are "satellite ready" aren't only that, "ready" -- you still have to buy the equipment to go in the car. That's a BIG hurdle for folks to get over.
-
I'll give you this; the playlist looks good!
-
Originally posted by Bagster:
I'll give you this; the playlist looks good!
:D check out the other ones too.
-
Some automakers like Audi have "satellite ready" and then you pay the dealer to pop in a satellite tuner box.
But GM is all from the factory. They don't do dealer installs. Honda, another XM shareholder, is now making XM standard equipment in all Acura RL and TL and all Honda Accords with leather.
The takeup rate is averaging 70%, and the churn rate on subscribers picked up through car sales is no different than the overall churn rate, about 1% per month -- negligible. The dealers that know what they're doing are seeing as much as 80% activation within 30 days, and the cars with XM sell faster than the ones without. The customers are happier, and that's the idea.
------
Thing about that playlist is that, while good, you will find yourself discovering other types of music you probably didn't know you'd be into.
Try it. You've got nothing to lose.
-
What's your angle here J'Mal?
Your heavily pumping a stock with a ytd return of 500%
Are you with Columbia?
-
They even have BBC World Service for all you Anglophillies out there. That's right, listen to footie on the speaky box.
-
Originally posted by edbert:
I can get WRNR loud and smarmy even though I live in DC. Yeah I'd get XM if it weren't for that
If those are your 2 choices...well, let's just say I feel for you, pal.
-
Columbia? Heavens no, I'm with me. I do have some shares, which I got prior to becoming a very satisfied subscriber. It's not like I fell in love with the service and rationalized the investment decision later. Quite the opposite.
Yes, that 500% this year is nice but it ain't nowhere near where it's going to go. Even Barron's, those wild-eyed irrational exuberists, ran the math earlier this year and concluded quite reasonably that at a mere 10m subscribers XM has 1.5-1.8/year of earnings... so go put a nominal growth multiple on that...
All that aside, the quality and value of the service speaks for itself. This is a forum for people who love music, and if you love music there's really nothing better than XM. If you think I'm just talking my book and full of poo poo, fine. But you'd be missing out.
-
Originally posted by J'Mal:
Columbia? Heavens no, I'm with me. I do have some shares, which I got prior to becoming a very satisfied subscriber. It's not like I fell in love with the service and rationalized the investment decision later. Quite the opposite.
Yes, that 500% this year is nice but it ain't nowhere near where it's going to go. Even Barron's, those wild-eyed irrational exuberists, ran the math earlier this year and concluded quite reasonably that at a mere 10m subscribers XM has 1.5-1.8/year of earnings... so go put a nominal growth multiple on that...
All that aside, the quality and value of the service speaks for itself. This is a forum for people who love music, and if you love music there's really nothing better than XM. If you think I'm just talking my book and full of poo poo, fine. But you'd be missing out.
yeah, what he said.
minus that stock mumbo-jumbo. i'm no investment expert, but i do know awesome stuff when i see/hear it.