4 days left

[lionforce5]

Zogby is predicting a Kerry win (Daily Show last night), and has been saying since about April that this election is Kerry's to lose, based on the fact that undecideds tend to lean toward the challenger, as well as the recent surge in new voter registrations, where democrats outnumber republicans by a 4:1 ratio in some areas.  I wouldn't be surprised if we have a new President in January.
 
 Good thing too.  Rehnquist looks like he may need to retire earlier than he'd like.

[Bartelby]

Bags:  That was an incredible article in The American Conservative.  I'm predicting Kerry, and here's why:
 
 When I was at Voodoo Music Fest in New Orleans a few weeks ago, I shared space with about 80,000 people - mostly college kids.  I asked everyone I was in line with or standing next to if they were going to vote.  To a person, they were all fired up - and registered - and voting for KERRY.  Now maybe Republican college kids don't "do" rock festivals, but certainly out of forty or fifty people, I would have found ONE??!!
 
 I couldn't get to all the stages, but of the bands I heard, (including a Board favorite, The Pixies)  each played at least one anti-war, anti-Bush song, and the crowds went NUTS.  Because college kids don't have landline telephones, and cannot be easily polled, their "voices" are missing from most state/party polls.  I think the 18- to 24 year olds of America WILL vote, and I think they will take the White House away from the Bush family - at least until Jeb  tries to "one up" his brother.  I predict Kerry - with a significant popular vote margin...You go, kids.  Save America!

[twelsh737]

well being from Zogby land (he was my older sister's high-school history teacher) lets just say he can sometime miss. I know he is famous for making predictions before anyone else but lets just say sometime his methods make me wonder. Plus I know a ton of the guys who actually make the phone calls for Zogby and we would be lucky if they were not totally stoned at work.

[Charlie Nakatestes, Japanese Golfer]

Guess what? Most people don't go to music festivals, regardless of party affiliation.
 
 And most people aren't 18-24.
 
 By the same token, you could also argue that it's the gays that are going to win it for Kerry.
 
 A better argument might be that female voters will win it for Kerry.
 
 

Originally posted by Suki:
  Bags:  That was an incredible article in The American Conservative.  I'm predicting Kerry, and here's why:
 
 When I was at Voodoo Music Fest in New Orleans a few weeks ago, I shared space with about 80,000 people - mostly college kids.  I asked everyone I was in line with or standing next to if they were going to vote.  To a person, they were all fired up - and registered - and voting for KERRY.  Now maybe Republican college kids don't "do" rock festivals, but certainly out of forty or fifty people, I would have found ONE??!!
 
 I couldn't get to all the stages, but of the bands I heard, (including a Board favorite, The Pixies)  each played at least one anti-war, anti-Bush song, and the crowds went NUTS.  Because college kids don't have landline telephones, and cannot be easily polled, their "voices" are missing from most state/party polls.  I think the 18- to 24 year olds of America WILL vote, and I think they will take the White House away from the Bush family - at least until Jeb  tries to "one up" his brother.  I predict Kerry - with a significant popular vote margin...You go, kids.  Save America!

[Venerable Bede]

Originally posted by tbmtt:
  well being from Zogby land (he was my older sister's high-school history teacher) lets just say he can sometime miss. I know he is famous for making predictions before anyone else but lets just say sometime his methods make me wonder. Plus I know a ton of the guys who actually make the phone calls for Zogby and we would be lucky if they were not totally stoned at work.

yeah, zogby's recent state polls have been all over the place.  he's doing an online chat at 4 today on washingtonpost.com, so maybe he's got some answers.

[ggw]

According to something a little less anecdotal -- college kids break about 50% to 40% in favor of Kerry:
 
 http://www.iop.harvard.edu/
 
 

Originally posted by Suki:
 When I was at Voodoo Music Fest in New Orleans a few weeks ago, I shared space with about 80,000 people - mostly college kids.  I asked everyone I was in line with or standing next to if they were going to vote.  To a person, they were all fired up - and registered - and voting for KERRY.  Now maybe Republican college kids don't "do" rock festivals, but certainly out of forty or fifty people, I would have found ONE??!!
 
 I couldn't get to all the stages, but of the bands I heard, (including a Board favorite, The Pixies)  each played at least one anti-war, anti-Bush song, and the crowds went NUTS.  Because college kids don't have landline telephones, and cannot be easily polled, their "voices" are missing from most state/party polls.  I think the 18- to 24 year olds of America WILL vote, and I think they will take the White House away from the Bush family - at least until Jeb  tries to "one up" his brother.  I predict Kerry - with a significant popular vote margin...You go, kids.  Save America!

[Venerable Bede]

and kids prefer bush 52% to 48%
 
 http://teacher.scholastic.com/scholasticnews/indepth/election_countdown/activities/poll_pres/index_backup2.asp

[joz]

Originally posted by Rhett Miller:
  Has anybody else heard stories that Bush may have had a stroke a number of years ago, and that's why he is so loopy?

Maybe it was that pretzel he choked on a few years back...cut off the oxygen to his brain for a few seconds too many and killed the remaining brain cells that hadn't already been decimated by cocaine and liquor.

[joz]

Originally posted by Venerable Bede:
  and kids prefer bush 52% to 48%
 
  http://teacher.scholastic.com/scholasticnews/indepth/election_countdown/activities/poll_pres/index_backup2.asp

i read this article a few days ago and had to laugh...i mean, the guy rarely uses a word containing more than 3 syllables and speaks in short, simple sentences. no wonder 5th graders relate to him better. plus he looks like a chimpanzee...what kids don't like people who make funny faces all the time?

[Barcelona]

Is there a final day in the US for conducting polls and campaigning? In Spain you can do both up to 48 hours before the election.

[Venerable Bede]

Originally posted by Barcelona:
  Is there a final day in the US for conducting polls and campaigning? In Spain you can do both up to 48 hours before the election.

nope. . you campaign until the polls close.  and pollster's move to exit-polling to get people as they leave.

[Barcelona]

Originally posted by Venerable Bede:
   

Originally posted by Barcelona:
  Is there a final day in the US for conducting polls and campaigning? In Spain you can do both up to 48 hours before the election.

nope. . you campaign until the polls close.  and pollster's move to exit-polling to get people as they leave. [/b]

It's the same in Spain and I guess everywhere, you can conduct a poll the same day of the election and make it public once the schools are closed. However, are we still going to see Bush and Kerry campaign on Monday?

[Venerable Bede]

Originally posted by Barcelona:
   

Originally posted by Venerable Bede:
   nope. . you campaign until the polls close.  and pollster's move to exit-polling to get people as they leave.

It's the same in Spain and I guess everywhere, you can conduct a poll the same day of the election and make it public once the schools are closed. However, are we still going to see Bush and Kerry campaign on Monday? [/b]

they'll go back to their home towns to vote, and since texas and massachusetts aren't in play this year, in the battleground states, there will be volunteers 90 feet from the entrance handing out vote bush or vote kerry fliers to everyone passing by. . .course, there will be a ton of other volunteers there as well passing out fliers for other candidates in other races (like house, senate, state races or propositions).
 
 the exit-polling results have been causing problems ever since network started using them.  for example, the polls in alaska close at 1 am eastern time. . .so, by the time the polls close in alaska, the election could be decided. also consider, polls in the east close around 7 or so at night, which is 4 out west, and networks start announcing winners. . .tends to decrease voting totals, especially in cases of landslides in the east.  plus, the 2000 election had its own share of issues, namely, the exit-pollsters got bad data on florida. . so, networks called florida for gore early in the night, then had to change it, then gave it to bush, then changed it again.  
 
 i thought that in england, there's only like a month of campaigning allowed and it's over before they vote.  i could be wrong, but i know some countries do put a moratorium on campaigning before a vote.

[joeavrage]

I think two things are going to happen...
 
 1. For the first time so far in this election, I actually think Kerry will win it (would have put money on Bush up until this week). I think the facts that a) voter registration has been so high b) Kerry looks solid in Pennsylvania and good for Ohio, and most importantly c) that every poll is basically garbage because they don't count cellphone-only users, (who are mostly young and urban and will on the whole lean about 60% towards Kerry).... mean that if the polls stay as tight as they are until next Tuesday, Kerry will take the election with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and might even swing a couple of others his way.
 
 2) I also think there's going to be chaos because of all the ballot issues, and the huge number of lawyers and lawyer wanna-bes who are out in the swing states ready to litigate whenever they see a chad on the floor.

[Venerable Bede]

Originally posted by My Cat Can DJ:
  c) that every poll is basically garbage because they don't count cellphone-only users, (who are mostly young and urban and will on the whole lean about 60% towards Kerry)....
 

from yesterday's post:
 
 At the same time, pollsters argue that the proportion of people who use only a cell phone is tiny. There may be 169 million cell phones in purses or strapped to the belts of Americans, but the overwhelming majority are owned by people who still have a traditional telephone in their home and are reachable by pollsters.
 
 Early this year, a face-to-face survey of 2,000 randomly selected adults found that only 2.5 percent had cell phone service and no traditional home phone. The figures were slightly higher among 18- to-24-year-olds and renters, reported Peter Tuckel of Hunter College in New York, which conducted the study with veteran pollster Harry O'Neill.