So I've been thinking about Pakistan, but was waiting until I could fully process the assassination of Benazir Bhutto before sharing my thoughts.
While most of the media focused the first couple of weeks after her assassination on who killed her and how she died, I've decided that I don't care (well, it's not that I don't care, it's more that I don't think it's the most important angle). Originally, the interesting stories to me were (1) the lack of succession in Pakistani poltical parties, (2) the effects of moving the election to February, and (3) the overall effect on Pakistan. But lately I've become more intrigued about (4) the effects it has globally, because after all, the only reason we're more concerned about this particular Muslim country and it's problems over other Muslim countries is one thing: they possess a nuclear weapon.
(1) Succession: Pakistani's, even the well educated ones, can't get past their tribal allegiances. That is the simple answer for why everyone is looking to the Bhutto family to take over the PPP, even if that means a crook (Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari) or a 19 year old kid (Bhutto's son, Bilawal). It's a shame really because after the lawyers took to the streets to defy Musharraf, not one of them is seen as capable of running the PPP simply because his last name is not Bhutto. Zardari is blamed for Bhutto's corruption charges and isn't well liked, while Bilawal is still in college. Things are not looking good for the PPP for the next ten years.
(2) Elections: Despite the (shocking) calls from the west(ern media) to postpone the elections, both opposition parties (Bhutto's PPP and Sharif's PML) were opposed to changing the date. I wish I could say that they, like me, feel that democracy is bigger than any one person and the elections must go on. But no. They know that any more time given to Musharraf would allow him to put the security forces in place to rig an election. Postponing the election was not a good move.
(3) Pakistan's Future: More riots. Simply put, no matter who loses the election, they will take to the streets. Depsite a small precentage of Islamic extremists, they are quite effective in keeping Pakistan from becoming a true democracy. Add to that a Military dictatorship with a well entrenched military-intelligence program, and the likelihood of free elections creating a consensus of Pakistani's feeling like the government is one they can trust with a military that will protect them from the extremists is all but gone with the death of Bhutto.
(4) Global effects: This one matters most in my eyes. The death of Bhutto stopped two key strategic advances. One, she was going to rat Musharraf out to the American Congress ahead of the election so that election monitors would no what to look for ahead the (then) January election. And second, and perhpas more important, she had promised to turn over Abdul Qadeer Khan, the former head of Pakistan's nuclear program who has been selling nuclear secrets to China, Libya, Iran, North Korea, the Taliban in Afghanistan and, perhaps, Al-qaeda. I am looking forward to reading "
The Nuclear Jihadist," a fascinating tale about
the Man Who Sold the World's Most Dangerous Secrets...And How We Could Have Stopped Him.
