Author Topic: COVID-19 2020  (Read 263027 times)

Space Freely

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #225 on: March 13, 2020, 09:46:32 am »
If most of us are going to get the virus, wouldn't it be better to get it earlier than later, especially if you only get it once?

I mean, the younger you are, the better. No better time than now.

And might as well get it now, before the hospitals are overrun.

I wish I was 25 not 52.

Do we  basically have to turn off our lives and live like hermits until a vaccine is developed and put into use?

hutch

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #226 on: March 13, 2020, 09:53:19 am »
But according to something I read the virus may mutate and come back stronger...this is apparently what happened in 1918 with influenza

The guy who ran Obamacare tweeted 1 million Americans will die...I could not believe it...not only the number but that he would tweet that out

contradiction

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #227 on: March 13, 2020, 09:56:31 am »
Roughly speaking, if 50% of Americans are infected (possible?) and the fatality rate is 1% (possible!), 1.6 million people will die.

hutch

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #228 on: March 13, 2020, 09:58:55 am »
I hear you but thatís insane

Do we really think half of Americans will get it?

Yada

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #229 on: March 13, 2020, 09:59:58 am »
I hear you but thatís insane

Do we really think half of Americans will get it?

Wouldn't be surprised... but I think also there's a big difference between "getting it" and getting sick... I think many people will get it and you won't know it or will have very minor symptoms.

Space Freely

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #230 on: March 13, 2020, 10:08:18 am »
I hear you but thatís insane

Do we really think half of Americans will get it?

Angela Merkel said 70% of Germans will get it. She's probably no more of an infectious disease expert than I am but she probably has better firsthand  sources than I do.

contradiction

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #231 on: March 13, 2020, 10:09:46 am »
A few factors to consider:

Community transmission is a big big deal.  The virus is in the wild, and you can get it without knowing how or where you got it from.  Hogan announced yesterday that this has already begun to happen in Maryland, and that is why schools are closed.

You are contagious before you feel sick. This means that testing is a trailing indicator of how many people you have already infected.  Testing doesn't help prevent the spread of the disease, and since we don't have a cure, it doesn't really inform treatment.

There is a good chance that the virus will wane over the summer, will mutate slightly and will come back like gangbusters next fall and winter.  The seasonal flu does this. The common cold does this. The Spanish flu (1918) did this, but the second wave was far more deadly than the first. They think that the people who got sick during the first wave of Spanish flu were conferred some immunity to the second wave.

80% of the infected will recover with minor to moderate symptoms.  20% will have major symptoms requiring medical intervention or hospitalization.  1% will die.  These numbers have been fairly consistent over time, and correcting for outliers.

contradiction

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #232 on: March 13, 2020, 10:12:02 am »
So yeah, if only 20% get it and 1% die, then it's only 660K people.

Space Freely

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #233 on: March 13, 2020, 10:27:34 am »
So yeah, if only 20% get it and 1% die, then it's only 660K people.

There are nearly 3 million deaths in the United States per year. I guess the question is what percent of that 660K or 1.5 million or whatever were people who were going to die anyway?

Julian, Adroit TASTEMAKER

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #234 on: March 13, 2020, 10:31:21 am »
So yeah, if only 20% get it and 1% die, then it's only 660K people.
I donít get out of bed for less than a million deaths.
LVMH

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contradiction

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #236 on: March 13, 2020, 10:33:55 am »
So yeah, if only 20% get it and 1% die, then it's only 660K people.

There are nearly 3 million deaths in the United States per year. I guess the question is what percent of that 660K or 1.5 million or whatever were people who were going to die anyway?

This would be on top of the "background deaths" you cite.

hutch

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #237 on: March 13, 2020, 11:13:01 am »
Heilung I forget but you work in public health?

Good stuff..thanks

Space Freely

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #238 on: March 13, 2020, 11:45:46 am »
My Trump voting, Fox News watching in-laws claim they don't have the virus because they can still hold their breath and count to 10.

Isn't that really the only test you need?

contradiction

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Re: COVID-19 2020
« Reply #239 on: March 13, 2020, 11:52:33 am »
Heilung I forget but you work in public health?

Good stuff..thanks

I dont. But I'm highly selective about where I get my info.  This is a great source. Sign up for their situation reports!

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/index.html