Originally posted by Rhett Miller:
I haven't read Baseball Prospectus before this year, but they seem to be dead wrong on a number of predictions about how teams will do, as well as individual player performances. Have you found this to be true? Is this year an anomoly so far?
I don't read their team projections with a careful eye, usually. I do pay attention to the smaller projections for offensive categories(should score more runs, should steal more bases, etc.). It's so hard to make predictions in January in print, and not be able to change them when people get injured and players get traded. If they are particularly bad right now, I wonder if those results will hold true at the end of the season? Maybe I'll check past issues. I know they completely missed the 2002 Angels, but who didn't?
What I really like about BP is their methodology for having more than the usual categories for stats. The stats are basically useless to everybody but sabermatricians and die-hard Fantasy/Roto players, but their methodology has always been of keen interest to me. I can't explain it really, but I've always been interested in the intricacies of baseball: lefties vs. righties, how it is impossible to measure the value of players relative to one another because of the differences in opposition and ballparks, years played, etc.
As far as use, I mainly use BP for Fantasy Baseball and their translated stats about day/night, LHP/RHP, ballpark analysis and monthly performance for day to day rosters. But I read BP for its methodology.
