Dean Blows Iowa...

[ratioci nation]

one voter at a time
 
 I now have the feeling this is going to be a long and brutal Dem primary... handing reelection to Georgie Boy    :mad:  
 
 not that Dean would have necessarily beat him with the easy primary win it seemed he might have a few weeks ago

[ggw]

Dean would never beat Bush.  Opposition to the war is not a platform that sells to the general public.  It does well for enticing the iPod crowd, but that's about it.
 
 A Kerry-Edwards ticket would have a much better shot.
 
 And forget about Clark.  He's going nowhere either.

[Barcelona]

I was in Spain recently and I was surprised by how people there are following the primaries (4 years ago, they hardly knew what the Iowa primary was). Even though the Spanish government supports Bush and all the lies he keeps telling, more than 80% of Spaniards opposed the war (everyone wants to get rid of Saddam but not through these lies). Anyway, people I talked to in Spain tend to follow Wesley Clark, the general perception is that he seems capable of stealing some moderate conservative votes to George W. I hope this is the case.

[Bags]

I agree with ggw.  It's way too early to believe there's only one viable candidate, which folks were doing with Dean.  A lot could happen.  At the time of the Iowa caucuses in 1992, I didn't really know who Bill Clinton was.

[ratioci nation]

Originally posted by ggwâ?¢:
 the iPod crowd

Rhett is that you?
 
 until about 6 months ago I really liked Kerry, but his strengths are his weaknesses, he is too polished, and does not offer enough to make people choose him over Bush, he could make it close, but I don't think he could win
 
 I really can't stand Clark
 
 I liked Dean at first, but he seems pretty disingenuine the last couple of months, he takes back what he says too often, I don't really like any of them, I just don't want Bush in office
 
 either way, being in DC, my vote does not matter, maybe it is back to nader for me    :roll:

[eros]

Yeah, this is depressing.  Should be interesting to see how Clark does in NH next week.
 
 I think he's the party's best chance because he would be the most immune to the negative campaign tactics perpetrated by King George, Rove, and the rest of the Republicans.

[ratioci nation]

Originally posted by Bags:
  At the time of the Iowa caucuses in 1992, I didn't really know who Bill Clinton was.

Clinton was also dead in the water as late as 1995, but it is a different climate now, and George has a lot of money, a whole lot.

[ratioci nation]

I also think it would be a good idea for the Dems to adopt a winner take all primary system.

[stu47]

I kind of figured this would happen in Iowa....now, if dean blows New Hampshire, I'd say forget it
 
 I'm not necessarily enthusiastic about any of the democratic canditates, but I favor Dean and, to a lesser extent Clark, because they get it....Bush will not play fair in the fall, and it will do little good for them to treat it as a business as usual campaign....
 
 nothing against kerry and edwards, but senators are too used to compromising....that's why so few of them tend to get elected (at least recently)

[ggw]

Originally posted by pollard:
 Clinton was also dead in the water as late as 1995, but it is a different climate now, and George has a lot of money, a whole lot.

I'm telling you, Bush can be beaten (not that I'm necessarily hoping for that outcome), but only by a Kerry-Edwards ticket.  This neo-liberal crap that's been the flavor of the month won't last past the vernal equinox.  Like it or not, it's still a centrist-Clintonian world.
 
 Kerry is a respected vet.  Kerry has a very wealthy wife.  Edwards can bring in beaucoup bucks from the trial lawyers, and he can appeal to the Southern moderates (if that's not an oxymoron).  The democrats can take California easily, Pennsylvania (Heinz), Ohio, and probably New York.  They have to make some inroads in the south, which is the lock the GOP is counting on.  The Green Stater, Howard Dean, with his "civil unions" and his Birkenstock-clad, patchouli wearing absentee wife, won't sell well in the south or in middle-America.

[ratioci nation]

Yes Kerry is a respected veteran.  But just to play Devil's advocate, there are weakness with the strengths you have mentioned.  For one thing, Edwards is not exactly a down home boy.  He is a wealthy trial attorney, that will be used aganst him well I don't think he will be able to play the southern boy card very successfully.  Kerry is a Massachusetts Democrat, I don't think that will play well in a lot of middle America either, Iowa is not necessarily a good indicator.   And I think most people will have a hard time identifying with Teresa Heinz.  But your points are good ones.  On issues though, I just don't see what Kerry could use to differentiate himself in a way that would resonate with the public.

[J'Mal]

They all suck.  It doesn't matter who wins.
 
 Bush will steal less of your money but he will spend the country into the ground, pay for it by devaluing the dollar, and make everyone go to church.  If you don't go to church, you go to mars.  So be good.
 
 Clark will push the button.  He's wacky.  He's really the Martin Sheen president.... from The Dead Zone.
 
 Dean and the rest will eliminate the kulak class, seize the means of production from the capitalists and create a dictatorship of the proletariate.  you can make tractors or till the fields, bourgeouis pigs.

[ggw]

Originally posted by pollard:
  Yes Kerry is a respected veteran.  But just to play Devil's advocate, there are weakness with the strengths you have mentioned.  For one thing, Edwards is not exactly a down home boy.  He is a wealthy trial attorney, that will be used aganst him well I don't think he will be able to play the southern boy card very successfully.  Kerry is a Massachusetts Democrat, I don't think that will play well in a lot of middle America either, Iowa is not necessarily a good indicator.   And I think most people will have a hard time identifying with Teresa Heinz.  But your points are good ones.  On issues though, I just don't see what Kerry could use to differentiate himself in a way that would resonate with the public.

Voters are pretty well-divided now.  There's a massive "anybody-but-Bush" constituency on the left, so basically, the fight is still for the middle.  The left wing of the party are the ones who would be most likely to be turned off by Heinz, but since they will vote for whichever Dem gets the nod, that doesn't matter much.  
 
 Edwards' former profession and his many, many millions are a potential liability, but from the limited amount of stuff I've heard, he reportedly played fair (or at least as fair as a trial lawyer can play).  If he can cast himself as an anti-Corporate man, that will do well as the Tyco and Martha Stewart cases get settled.

[ratioci nation]

I also wonder how Teresa Heinz's history would play with the middle in terms of her previous marriage.  Could they cast it as tragedy and rediscovered love?  Or to be crass, Senator Hopping?  Will it matter, will it come up at all?

[ggw]

Originally posted by pollard:
  I also wonder how Teresa Heinz's history would play with the middle in terms of her previous marriage.  Could they cast it as tragedy and rediscovered love?  Or to be crass, Senator Hopping?  Will it matter, will it come up at all?

As long as she wasn't diddling Kerry before she buried Heinz, I don't think it's a big deal.  Plus, she's a closet Republican, which could bring in some moderates.  It's all about the center.  As long as there's no Nader, I don't think the candidate has to worry about alienating the left-wing of the Democrat party, who just want Bush out.