XM performance theater

[Bags]

Why on earth do you think they'll get 75% of the market?
 
 And how many alternative, indie, etc. channels do they have?  Unless it's 10 or more, I'm not even considering it.

[J'Mal]

Originally posted by Bagster:
  Why on earth do you think they'll get 75% of the market?
 
 And how many alternative, indie, etc. channels do they have?  Unless it's 10 or more, I'm not even considering it.

Well, right now they have about 87% of the market.  Congress will not permit the FCC to issue any more satellite radio licenses until at least 2007 and there just isn't the spectrum available, not to mention the barriers to entry are hideous (it's very expensive to get the satellites up, and all the distribution channels are pretty much locked up).  The only other competitor, sirius, just makes mistake after mistake and is behind in every conceivable way imaginable, from a screwy satellite configuration that makes home reception difficult, to chipset and hardware design problems, to inferior programming (very heavy on talk, with very repetitive hits-based music)....
 
 There is a new indie channel and a classic alternative channel, as well as a mainstream alternative channel and a hard alternative channel.  So I guess that's about 4.  And each of them is light years ahead of the crap you get on FM.  You don't actually NEED ten indie channels, because you really can leave it on one really good one all day.
 
 Anyway, there's no reason not to try it.  If there's something wrong with you and you don't like the service, just return the equipment.  There's no contract and they pro-rate it if you paid in advance.

[paige]

Originally posted by mankie:
   

Originally posted by lily1:
  but is there anyway you can sign up for notifications of these tapings thru xm?

Just be really nice to paige and she'll hook a sister up I'm sure. [/b]

maybe    or you can just check out xmradio.com and they have some good info there.
 
 i'm glad everyone who went liked it!! xm is such an awesome building. although i would get stir crazy when i was down in Music 6 (XMLM) it was always insanely dark. when i would go outside, the sun would be so bright i felt like i was going to die. random story, i know.
 
 xm/satellite radio services will soon become fairly commonplace i'm sure. look at dvds - remember when they used to seem so state of the art?

[kosmo vinyl]

i'll just say it was very cool being able to see a band that rocked my formative years in such a intimate setting... there were 20 of us there.  the band sounds great and i gonna get my hands of thier new cd sharpish.  
 
 according to one of the xmradio folks they will announce upcoming taping on the website but that getting info on how to get the invite list will come from the band or record label.  
 
 i knew that "talking in your sleep" would be mentioned and while the song, and but not the video, was a bit cringeworthy.   the band has stripped the gloss and it now rocks harder than the orginial version.   even the orginial recording is miles better than most of whats consider top 40 today.  the band hopes to start playing the clubs again and even without monster drummer clem burke, johnny "bee" bancky(?) fills out the seat quite nicely.

[Bags]

Originally posted by J'Mal:
   

Originally posted by Bagster:
  Why on earth do you think they'll get 75% of the market?
 
 And how many alternative, indie, etc. channels do they have?  Unless it's 10 or more, I'm not even considering it.

Well, right now they have about 87% of the market.  Congress will not permit the FCC to issue any more satellite radio licenses until at least 2007[/b]

Okay, you're talking percentage of the satellite market -- I thought you were talking radio market.  Still, 100 million subscribers seems like an awful lot; how many are there now?
 
 I don't listen to radio at all (except Howard Stern every morning).  So I'm not comparing it to that.  And it's true, if the alternative station is like WOXY or KEXP, I suppose one or two good ones would do.  Do they post their playlists anywhere so you can peruse them to see what they play?

[Bags]

Originally posted by kosmo vinyl:
  i'll just say it was very cool being able to see a band that rocked my formative years in such a intimate setting... there were 20 of us there.  the band sounds great and i gonna get my hands of thier new cd sharpish.

Very awesome, Kosmo.  I grew up in Clearwater, FLA, and one year while I was in high school, so like '84 - '85, The Romantics played Busch Gardens, which was SO cool because it was at night after the park closed, but the rides were all open!  And there was beer, and I had a good fake I.D.  What a great night that was.  You're right, the Romantics really rock more than folks remember....

[edbert]

So this Bruce Kelly guy is talking to the band between tunes- and the singer is talking about The Kinks and other stuff that inspired him in the 60's- [Bruce:] " Yes, me too, I'm based on all that stuff... the..uhh.... DC5, and ... um"  [Romantics singer:] "MC5??" [Bruce:] "MC5, yeah!"

[ggw]

Originally posted by Bagster:
  Okay, you're talking percentage of the satellite market -- I thought you were talking radio market.  Still, 100 million subscribers seems like an awful lot; how many are there now?
 

They hit 1 million subscribers this week.
 
 I recall reading that XM projected a market of over 40 million.  Sirius will eventually go bankrupt so they are not much of a problem.
 
 I'd guess they need roughly 10,000,000 subscribers just to cover annual operating expenses and their guaranteed payments to GM.  I don't think they will get to that point next year.  Moreover, they've raised $2.0 billion in capital, so there are a lot of hands in the pot.
 
 I think they will do fine in the end, but it will be several years before they get there.

[kosmo vinyl]

The Romantics are about the nicest bunch of guys you'll ever see... lots of autographs and taking pictures with the fans.
 
 I asked if there were any plans for a club tour I the near future and the answer was yes.  Some may disagree but seeing them in the parking lot of a football stadium lacks the same atomsphere of seeing them sweatin' in a club.

[J'Mal]

Originally posted by ggw™:
 They hit 1 million subscribers this week.
 

Not exactly. They announced they did 1m "recently," but for obvious reasons won't say exactly when.  At the Q3 run rate it would be 10/26 but probably more like 10/20-10/22 for reasons too extended to discuss here.
 
   

I recall reading that XM projected a market of over 40 million.  Sirius will eventually go bankrupt so they are not much of a problem.
 

40m is very low.  For example, there are 16m new cars sold each year.  GM, which is rapidly moving toward making XM available throughout its line, moves 5m of those.
 
 Sirius will either go bankrupt or have another constructive bankruptcy to screw the shareholders but their SDARS license belongs to the bondholders and the signal will continue in some form or other.  But some of their mistakes have really cost them permanently.
 
   

I'd guess they need roughly 10,000,000 subscribers just to cover annual operating expenses and their guaranteed payments to GM.
 

Nope.  They've consistently stated cash flow break even -- where cash takes care of operating expenses -- is 2.4m subs and that happens no later than November, 2004.  True profitability is later, yes.  The GM deal is a bargain.
 
   

Moreover, they've raised $2.0 billion in capital, so there are a lot of hands in the pot.
 

Well, make sure one of those hands is yours.  Or, don't get rich.  Your choice.  Fact is there are not enough shares out there.  The float is some 100m shares, of which 40m are out short, and whenever some mutual fund says "get me $10m of XM," there goes a half million shares.
 ----------------------
 Bagster --
 
 Here's the page for XMU, the indie channel...
 http://www.xmradio.com/programming/channel_page.jsp?ch=43
 
 Most recently available playlist:
  http://www.xmradio.com/pdf/XMU-Musiculum-10.20.03.pdf

[Bags]

I think you're making a big leap that to think that, because GM will put the equipment in the cars, every new car owner will become a subscriber.
 
 And from what I've heard, the new cars that are "satellite ready" aren't only that, "ready"  -- you still have to buy the equipment to go in the car.  That's a BIG hurdle for folks to get over.

[Bags]

I'll give you this; the playlist looks good!

[paige]

Originally posted by Bagster:
  I'll give you this; the playlist looks good!

 check out the other ones too.

[J'Mal]

Some automakers like Audi have "satellite ready" and then you pay the dealer to pop in a satellite tuner box.
 
 But GM is all from the factory.  They don't do dealer installs.  Honda, another XM shareholder, is now making XM standard equipment in all Acura RL and TL and all Honda Accords with leather.
 
 The takeup rate is averaging 70%, and the churn rate on subscribers picked up through car sales is no different than the overall churn rate, about 1% per month -- negligible.   The dealers that know what they're doing are seeing as much as 80% activation within 30 days, and the cars with XM sell faster than the ones without.  The customers are happier, and that's the idea.
 ------
 Thing about that playlist is that, while good, you will find yourself discovering other types of music you probably didn't know you'd be into.
 
 Try it.  You've got nothing to lose.

[ggw]

What's your angle here J'Mal?
 
 Your heavily pumping a stock with a ytd return of 500%
 
 Are you with Columbia?