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=> GENERAL DISCUSSION => Topic started by: sweetcell on September 15, 2009, 12:45:36 pm

Title: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on September 15, 2009, 12:45:36 pm
Hope the show was good because that Buff/NE game was great

the show was great, totally worth missing the game - based on what they've been showing on the highlights, only the last 2 minutes were really spectacular.  i caught the first quarter on the TV and listened to the second quarter on my drive down to the club and it didn't look/sound that amazing.  i'm a big new england fan, so that might have had something to do with it...

first time i've heard of this:

American Indians look to high court
WASHINGTON -- A group of American Indians who find the Washington Redskins name offensive wants the Supreme Court to take up the matter.

The group late Monday asked the justices to review a lower court decision that favored the NFL team on a legal technicality.

The seven Native Americans have been working through the court system since 1992 to have the Redskins trademarks declared invalid. A U.S. Patent and Trademark Office panel ruled in their favor in 1999, but they've since suffered a series of defeats from judges who ruled that the plaintiffs waited too long to bring their suit in the first place.

A lawyer for the group says he'd like to see the court decide once and for all whether the Redskins name defames Native Americans.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4474771
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: serpent boy on September 15, 2009, 12:52:23 pm
As a diehard Bengals fan, I'll forever be haunted by Stokley's fluke catch on Sunday. Ugh.

The Bills and Raiders had tough last minute losses, but at least they weren't Stokleyed.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on September 15, 2009, 01:05:26 pm
because:

(http://upnextinsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/128916932453498410.jpg)

(yes, the hamburger network now does sports (http://upnextinsports.com/))
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: HoyaSaxa03 on September 15, 2009, 02:59:48 pm
first time i've heard of this:

enjoy:

http://abovethelaw.com/2009/05/quinn_emanuel_redskins_reservations.php
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: BookerT on September 15, 2009, 03:53:55 pm
As a diehard Bengals fan, I'll forever be haunted by Stokley's fluke catch on Sunday. Ugh.

The Bills and Raiders had tough last minute losses, but at least they weren't Stokleyed.

yeah the bills and raiders just choked and/or were stupid at the end. the bengals finally put together a great drive to take the lead and then got stokleyed. i'm on the bengals bandwagon this year because i thought this was the best "hard knocks" yet, so that was rough.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: DeathFromAbove1979 on September 16, 2009, 03:26:55 am
I dunno what Id do if they changed the name. It would probably be something as lame as the Capitals, or the Nationals. Why can't we get something badass? Seriously? The front running names for the Nats were 'The Washington Monuments' and 'The Washington Greys'. What the hell.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface on September 16, 2009, 06:21:38 am
I always assumed if they had to change the name, they'd change it to the Washington Skins, since most fans truncate it to that anyway.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: K8teebug on September 16, 2009, 08:05:28 am
I do not like the Patriots.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: imbecile on September 16, 2009, 08:29:33 am
I dunno what Id do if they changed the name. It would probably be something as lame as the Capitals, or the Nationals. Why can't we get something badass? Seriously? The front running names for the Nats were 'The Washington Monuments' and 'The Washington Greys'. What the hell.

I think the only name that would remotely keep people from going absolutely crazy, would be to right one of the great wrongs and give DC back the Bullets!

You're more than likely correct though, it'd be a pretty crap-tastic patriotic/political name of some-kind.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on September 16, 2009, 11:41:55 am
i'd say the skins are more likely to win in the courtroom than the playoffs
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: thatguy on September 16, 2009, 02:55:48 pm
they don't need to change the name, they just need to change the logo:

(http://www.wexfordpotatoes.com/images/rooster.jpg)
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on September 16, 2009, 05:48:12 pm
they don't need to change the name, they just need to change the logo:

(http://www.wexfordpotatoes.com/images/rooster.jpg)

POTW
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: walkonby on September 16, 2009, 06:41:39 pm
did anybody catch the interview on stern with michael strahan.  funny antics he revealed that went on in the locker room with players while he was on the giants.  such as peeing on each other in the shower, taking pictures of their balls and putting it on other players cell phones screensavers, how one time the center (during a game) cut a hole in his uniform so his balls would hang out and eli manning would touch them with each snap.  what is going on with these manly men football payers.  fun stuff!!   :o
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on September 16, 2009, 09:05:11 pm
how one time the center (during a game) cut a hole in his uniform so his balls would hang out and eli manning would touch them with each snap. 

you just made me spit red wine all over my keyboard.  thanks, bitch :D

didn't realize football players, or NY giants at least, were so testicularly focused...
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: chaz on September 17, 2009, 10:54:54 am
Anybody hear about the TV ratings for the first week of NFL games?  The sunday game between the Giants and Redskins was the most watched regular season game EVER.

I'm actually reeling over this news.  I'd kind of thought that the NFL had reach maximum market saturation....so personally this comes as not really good news to me.  This will stoke the fires even more to penetrate other markets, with horrible ideas like moving some regular season games to London etc.  Shit they are talking about having a fucking team in Europe in the next 10 years.  Ughh.

Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on September 17, 2009, 12:04:15 pm
Anybody hear about the TV ratings for the first week of NFL games?  The sunday game between the Giants and Redskins was the most watched regular season game EVER.

I'm actually reeling over this news.  I'd kind of thought that the NFL had reach maximum market saturation....so personally this comes as not really good news to me.  This will stoke the fires even more to penetrate other markets, with horrible ideas like moving some regular season games to London etc.  Shit they are talking about having a fucking team in Europe in the next 10 years.  Ughh.

i had no idea.  wow.

i have friends in denmark who are HUGE packers fans (i know... wtf).  they stay up until 4 AM on sunday nights/monday morning watching NFL. 

i wonder if the players union would oppose having a team in yurp.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on September 17, 2009, 12:04:41 pm
i thought it was the most watched regular season sunday opener ever, but impressive none the less
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: hutch on September 17, 2009, 12:14:13 pm
People are absolutely starved for American Football....

I don't get the game myself... 1 hour of play and 3 hours of commercials/sitting around...

But maybe I don't get the game because of the type of game the Redskins have been playing since I moved here 16 years ago..

Back in the mid-80s I enjoyed watching the 49ers.. That was a team! what with Montana/Young, Rice, Clark, Craig, Lott!


Oh and can't believe I forgot this: and BIll Walsh coaching! Boy was he ahead of his time.. I went to High School with his daughter Liz actually..
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: BookerT on September 17, 2009, 12:35:30 pm
(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2453/3674817005_4399f38ced.jpg)
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on September 17, 2009, 01:01:59 pm
I don't get the game myself...

that because no argentinians are in the NFL.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 17, 2009, 01:49:24 pm
i thought it was the most watched regular season sunday opener ever, but impressive none the less

What difference does 10 Million veiwers really make?

1995 Kansas City Chiefs-Dallas Cowboys game that averaged 35.7 million viewers
2009 Washington Redskins-New York Giants game that averaged 25.1 million viewers
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on September 17, 2009, 01:58:50 pm
i was going to say there usually are a couple of 4:45 games a year that do 20+ ratings, usually do to a compelling match up and/or a favorable map. the skins/giants map was one of the best i've seen ever
http://the506.com/nflmaps/2009/01-FOX-L.html
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 17, 2009, 02:09:37 pm
They had a ton of coverage, yes.  That's the ratings benefit of a Thursday night game and 2 Monday night games.  The Charger game would certainly have been a Sunday late game, and perhaps one of the NE/Pitt games.

I was having a conversation with my brother-in-law this morning about having a team in LA and I told him that it would kill TV for him.  To illustrate:

WEEK 2 IN LA

Early games: NE @ NYJ and  NO @ PHI

Late Game: BAL @ SD

Compared to....

WEEK 2 IN SF

Early Game: OAK @ KC

Late Game: SEA @ SF

There's no comparison, really.  The NFL Package is a must in the Bay Area.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 17, 2009, 02:15:54 pm
I don't get the game myself...

that because no argentinians are in the NFL.

Ha ha...nice one, but even I will admit to missing those nut job Gramatica boys.  Someone will sign one of them as a replacement for a week or two just for the unintentional comedy value...
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: walkonby on September 17, 2009, 03:41:15 pm
I don't get the game myself...

that because no argentinians are in the NFL.

http://www.nfl.com/players/martingramatica/profile?id=GRA271265
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Venerable Bede on September 17, 2009, 03:58:14 pm
They had a ton of coverage, yes.  That's the ratings benefit of a Thursday night game and 2 Monday night games.  The Charger game would certainly have been a Sunday late game, and perhaps one of the NE/Pitt games.

I was having a conversation with my brother-in-law this morning about having a team in LA and I told him that it would kill TV for him.  To illustrate:

WEEK 2 IN LA

Early games: NE @ NYJ and  NO @ PHI

Late Game: BAL @ SD

Compared to....

WEEK 2 IN SF

Early Game: OAK @ KC

Late Game: SEA @ SF

There's no comparison, really.  The NFL Package is a must in the Bay Area.

or at least knowing someone who has the package.

there was a writer, i think on page 2, defending the nfl blackout rule and used the same rationale as this. . .instead of being forced to watch 2 potentially crappy local teams, you get the national games, which are, presumably, better than your local teams. 
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on September 17, 2009, 05:00:57 pm
the ticket is vital unless you root for the team in your town. i couldnt take going back to bars at this point
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 17, 2009, 05:07:55 pm
there was a writer, i think on page 2, defending the nfl blackout rule and used the same rationale as this. . .instead of being forced to watch 2 potentially crappy local teams, you get the national games, which are, presumably, better than your local teams. 

Ha ha, that's pretty funny.  I don't mind the blackout rule as I've never been a fan of a local team and it's very close in terms of which would happen first: (1) me moving to Pittsburgh and (2) Heinz field not selling out a game I would want to watch.  I wouldn't hold my breath for either.

I could see why other small market team fans would be upset though.

Anyhow, I think it's only NY and SF that have the two teams in the same media market and thus get screwed.  I know there are complaints about the secondary media market, but I don't think it's anywhere near as bad as those two cities.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on September 17, 2009, 05:30:38 pm
pittsburgh has tons of lawyers and hospitals, team smackie would fit right in

my dad was telling me about in the early 70's they didnt show games locally at all, so people would drive to erie to watch the steelers in a motel. like the whole motel would yell all during the game. hard to believe these days

it is pretty funny to watch my cousins act as ticket brokers on fall friday and saturday nights, though
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: DeathFromAbove1979 on September 17, 2009, 09:15:41 pm
Anybody hear about the TV ratings for the first week of NFL games?  The sunday game between the Giants and Redskins was the most watched regular season game EVER.

I'm actually reeling over this news.  I'd kind of thought that the NFL had reach maximum market saturation....so personally this comes as not really good news to me.  This will stoke the fires even more to penetrate other markets, with horrible ideas like moving some regular season games to London etc.  Shit they are talking about having a fucking team in Europe in the next 10 years.  Ughh.


I went to watch the game at Hard Times in Fairfax, and it was damn slow. It was more packed last season, and a lot more packed for just regular season Caps games. I thought it would be pakced with another QB and another coach on the chopping block, plus a divisional game? Season opener? I was surprised.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 18, 2009, 03:19:33 pm
pittsburgh has tons of lawyers and hospitals, team smackie would fit right in

Ah, but it's missing one big integral part of my life - the Ocean.  I did the river thing when I lived in Budapest (and to an extent DC though the shore was within driving distance) and I'll never do it again.  Smackie needs big blue to survive.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 18, 2009, 03:21:10 pm
my dad was telling me about in the early 70's they didnt show games locally at all, so people would drive to erie to watch the steelers in a motel. like the whole motel would yell all during the game. hard to believe these days

I've heard similar stories about Connecticut hotels for NY football fans.  Incredible how hard it was to be a fan back then...
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 21, 2009, 03:35:25 pm
pittsburgh has tons of lawyers and hospitals, team smackie would fit right in

Since I won't really be talking about the game in Chicago for a couple more days, I thought I would point out that even this ringing endorsement of Pittsburgh from my favorite rag (http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14460542) won't be changing my stance on this.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on September 21, 2009, 03:51:20 pm
worse than the lack of ocean would be the weather in my opinion. this past weekend was the first time in 7 years i went to pennsylvania and it didnt rain at all
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 24, 2009, 07:03:06 pm
If I were a fan of either of these teams, I would think this is a blessing...

Lions, Raiders games blacked out locally this weekend (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4500240)

Guess that means I don't get to watch Brandon Marshall single handedly destroy my fantasy team this weekend.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Venerable Bede on September 25, 2009, 03:43:22 pm
If I were a fan of either of these teams, I would think this is a blessing...

Lions, Raiders games blacked out locally this weekend (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4500240)

Guess that means I don't get to watch Brandon Marshall single handedly destroy my fantasy team this weekend.

Simmons. . . .

LIONS (+6.5) over Redskins
It's time for the Miller Lite Call of The Week, where I either praise a call that I loved or defend a call thought to be previously indefensible. This week, we're tackling the NFL's *unfortunate* blackout of the Redskins-Lions game, which could prevent Detroit fans from seeing their team's first win in years. And yes, it's literally been years. Plural.

Why put asterisks around the word *unfortunate*? Thanks to the blackout, Detroit fans now get treated to a much better game: Niners-Vikings. For gamblers, fantasy addicts and general football addicts in the Detroit area, what would you rather watch: your decrepitly hopeless team gunning for its 20th straight defeat, or two playoff teams battling with about 10 fantasy guys involved? I'm voting for Niners-Vikes! By refusing to turn out for the Lions, Detroit fans shrewdly improved their own viewing options and inspired downtrodden NFL cities across America to do the same. Now that's a great call of the week.

i think this is about the same thing we've all brought up about the positives of the blackout rule.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on September 27, 2009, 12:41:02 pm
anyone know where one can watch NFL games online?  i know the sunday night game is streamed live on cbs.com, any others? 

i'm stuck out in way rural VT today, with little hope of getting a network feed.  i've already moved sheep and tossed hay bales this morning, so i'm all good on outdoor activities...
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: serpent boy on September 27, 2009, 01:06:05 pm
http://www.atdhe.net/
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on September 27, 2009, 01:16:41 pm
anyone know where one can watch NFL games online?  i know the sunday night game is streamed live on cbs.com, any others? 


Directv subscribers who have a Sunday Ticket subscription can watch the games online at directv.com.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 07, 2009, 12:22:49 pm
(http://upnextinsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/128978878908801637.jpg)

apparently rush limbaugh wants to pwn them too (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-rams-ownership&prov=ap&type=lgns). some aren't too happy about it (http://views.washingtonpost.com/theleague/panelists/2009/10/rush-limbaugh-st-louis-rams-freeman.html).
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on October 07, 2009, 12:24:41 pm
I forgot about this thread....I'm moving my comment here.

It's amazing what a 3-1 start can do for your hopes of signing a holdout rookie:

Crabtree signs with 49ers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4538482)

And to add further speculation to the Jets tampering charges, within hours of Crabtree's signing, the Jets trade for Braylan Edwards.  Interesting.  Very interesting.

Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on October 07, 2009, 12:33:54 pm
the browns really fail at the draft, dont they
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: ggw on October 07, 2009, 12:38:44 pm
Redskins are 3.5 point underdogs to winless Carolina.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on October 07, 2009, 12:53:46 pm
i'm just going to say it: the talk around town has been way too negative. i'm not a skins fan by any stretch, and the negativity is funny to me, but at the end of the day they only lost one game they should have won. its week 5
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Venerable Bede on October 07, 2009, 01:51:18 pm
I forgot about this thread....I'm moving my comment here.

It's amazing what a 3-1 start can do for your hopes of signing a holdout rookie:

Crabtree signs with 49ers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4538482)

And to add further speculation to the Jets tampering charges, within hours of Crabtree's signing, the Jets trade for Braylan Edwards.  Interesting.  Very interesting.


i'm gonna go with the jets got caught and walked away. . .leaving only the niners.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 07, 2009, 01:52:47 pm
they only lost one game they should have won.

on the other hand, one could say that they won two games that they easily could have lost.  9-7 and 16-13 aren't exactly confidence-inspiring decisive victories.  they have problems generating yards & points.  folks might be going overboard with negativity but it's not like it's unfounded.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on October 07, 2009, 01:59:20 pm
the browns really fail at the draft, dont they

Last 10 years of first round picks:

1999 Tim Couch QB   
2000 Courtney Brown DE 
2001 Gerard Warren DT   
2002 William Green RB
2003 Jeff Faine C 
2004 Kellen Winslow II TE 
2005 Braylon Edwards WR   
2006 Kamerion Wimbley LB
2007 Joe Thomas OT
2007 Brady Quinn QB
2008 No Pick
2009 Alex Mack C

Thomas, Wimbley and Faine have been productive, especially Thomas (Faine has been more productive elsewhere).  But yes, the rest have not panned out. 
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: ggw on October 07, 2009, 02:19:17 pm
i'm just going to say it: the talk around town has been way too negative. i'm not a skins fan by any stretch, and the negativity is funny to me, but at the end of the day they only lost one game they should have won. its week 5

They are 2-1 against teams that have a combined record of 1-10 and won those two games by a combined 5 points.  They have scored the fourth fewest points of any team in the league and have done so with the softest schedule in the league.  And the owner makes Al Davis look like a reasonable man.  They really are pretty awful. 
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: renton007 on October 07, 2009, 02:20:01 pm
Simmons likes Washington; make what you will out of that prediction.

Redskins are 3.5 point underdogs to winless Carolina.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Mobius on October 07, 2009, 02:42:40 pm
At Michigan, early in his career, Braylon was a great talent with a bad tendency to drop balls and not be 'on the same page' as the coaching staff.  Lloyd Carr was able to get through to Braylon, get him on board, and he fulfilled the promise of the #1 jersey and became a Wolverine legend.

In Cleveland, after emerging as a star (and great guy in the community btw), he regressed back to the old Braylon.  I think this was simply nature taking its course when a great talent, with a 'complicated' personality, gets trapped in a negative atmosphere of incompetant coaches, damaged QBs, bad organization, and a town that turns out to be a bad fit (he's a Michigan guy after all!)

Some would say NYC is a bad place for a 'head case' like Braylon.  I think its going to be a tremendous fit.  The Jets have transformed into a mature, winning organization under Rex Ryan and Sanchez appears to be a real NFL QB with superstar potential.  I think he will thrive in this winning situation after sabotaging himself in the cesspool he just got out of.  

The Skins are in the midst of the easist 5 game stretch I can recall ever seeing - StL, Detroit, Tampa, Carolina and KC have all been atrocious minor league teams this year.  And the Skins have looked right at home amongst these sh*t teams so far.  So as they say, it is what it is. . . .why would you expect anything else from a Snyder/Cerrato team?

Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: serpent boy on October 07, 2009, 06:15:29 pm
It's a good year to be a Bengals fan after all!

I was pretty down after they got Stokleyed in week 1, but now Cincy is heading into Baltimore for a chance to take control of the division.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on October 07, 2009, 08:26:08 pm
they only lost one game they should have won.

on the other hand, one could say that they won two games that they easily could have lost.  9-7 and 16-13 aren't exactly confidence-inspiring decisive victories.  they have problems generating yards & points.  folks might be going overboard with negativity but it's not like it's unfounded.
but they won them

look the skins werent going to be scoring alot this year anyway. they'll be mediocre but its the defense that is their strength. and its. week. 5
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: miss pretentious on October 08, 2009, 08:57:13 am
the browns really fail at the draft, dont they

Last 10 years of first round picks:

2009 Alex Mack C

Thomas, Wimbley and Faine have been productive, especially Thomas (Faine has been more productive elsewhere).  But yes, the rest have not panned out. 

(http://i200.photobucket.com/albums/aa304/svurandomness/SecretWorldAlexMack_S1.jpg)
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on October 08, 2009, 12:05:57 pm
Miss P - FTW!!!

Incredible memory...
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 11, 2009, 01:03:22 pm
lol: players to limbaugh: DO NOT WANT (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4551010)
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 11, 2009, 03:05:46 pm
question for the football gurus:

detroit was down 14-6.  they score a touchdown, 14-12.  they kick the PAT, 14-13, but why didn't they try for a two-point conversion?  succeed, and you've got a tied game.  fail, and you're down by 2 - same difference as being down by 1, no?  a field goal will still give you the lead...

explanation that i came up with: lions just don't trust their ability to score 2.  at all.

thoughts?
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface on October 11, 2009, 03:12:22 pm
It was early in the game. There is a common thought that you do not want to go for 2 earlier than you need to because if you miss it, you lose the "momentum" you gained from scoring.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface on October 11, 2009, 03:17:35 pm
Also if you miss the 2 point conversion, and are down two, and the Steelers score a TD, you're now down 9 (2 scores). If you kick the extra point and the Steelers go on to score a TD, you're only down 8 (considered 1 score).
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on October 11, 2009, 04:30:03 pm
Successful One Point Conversion rate: 99%
Successful Two Point Conversion rate: 42%

Take those numbers and decide how many possessions are left in the game.  It's not worth risking the total number of points scored that early in the game, but when there are fewer possessions left, it's more worth taking the risk.

EDIT: HEre you go.  I found this study describing what I laid out above:
http://www.isds.duke.edu/~dalene/chance/chanceweb/133.sackrowitz.pdf
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: ggw on October 11, 2009, 10:25:21 pm
K.C. should have gone for two on that TD at the end of the fourth quarter.  Clearly they have forgotten that YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!  HELLO?!?
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on October 12, 2009, 10:35:02 am
It was early in the game. There is a common thought that you do not want to go for 2 earlier than you need to because if you miss it, you lose the "momentum" you gained from scoring.
agreed, you dont go for 2 until the 4th quarter. plus it was an interception return for a touchdown, you'd have to have your offense come out cold for one play. going for two after a long drive when they have some rhythm going makes more sense to me
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Venerable Bede on October 12, 2009, 01:54:39 pm
K.C. should have gone for two on that TD at the end of the fourth quarter.  Clearly they have forgotten that YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!  HELLO?!?
yeah, but i think the chefs can build on this. . .
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: serpent boy on October 12, 2009, 03:30:39 pm
I wish I had gone to the game in Baltimore yesterday. Instead, I cheered like a maniac from the confines of my apartment.

Cardiac Cats! :)
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: ggw on October 12, 2009, 03:38:22 pm
The Redskins are the first team to play their first six games against winless teams.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface on October 12, 2009, 03:40:39 pm
The Redskins are the first team to play their first six games against winless teams.

Imagine how terrible the Dan Snyder misfit posse will look when they actually play a team that can beat someone other than the Dan Snyder misfit posse!
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: chaz on October 14, 2009, 05:22:00 pm
Today there are exactly 1000 listings on CL for the skins/chiefs this sunday.  I'm betting it's more and that CL can only return 1000 results for any query.  I saw lower bowl seats for as low as $35 each. 

I'm a life long skins fan.  But watching them suffer is giving me great pleasure.  I hope danny reaps what he sows 1000x over.  He'll probably live as long as Al Davis........
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 14, 2009, 05:38:33 pm
i've actually never been to an NFL game, despite the fact that it's right up there with hockey as my favorite sport.  given how big the field is and the fact that it's a game of inches (at times), i never felt i was missing much... but these ridiculously cheap seats may have me at fedex this sunday.  i've seen seats between the 35's, first five rows, for $80.  crazy.

edit: it's just occurred to me - there will inevitably be a lot of empty seats on sunday.  no need to spring for first five rows, one could conceivably get 20th row and just walk down :D
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on October 14, 2009, 07:49:41 pm
The TV Timeouts will drive you crazy at your first NFL game.

The tailgating - awesome.
The crowd - generally awesome.
Seeing the entire play develop on the wide field (not just a close up on the QB or the lines) - awesome.
The TV timeouts every set of downs, TD, injury, change of possession or challenge - The death knell of watching the NFL live and in person.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Mobius on October 15, 2009, 12:04:11 am
if you've never been to an nfl game, why start with such a sh*tty game??   Just because you have a gift certificate to applebee's doesn't mean you should eat there.   Actually, a better comparison would be making your first concert a Creed show at Nissan.





Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface on October 15, 2009, 10:59:46 am
KC and Washington could actually be fairly competitive. Two equally terrible teams make for just as exciting of a game as two championship contenders.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 15, 2009, 11:18:07 am
Forecast for Sunday, Oct 18:  Showers & Wind, High of 48°

unless that changes: no thanks. 

mobius: yes, i agree, would be better to go see a less shitty game.  however, i refuse to pay big bucks to a scalper and i don't wanna sit up in the nose-bleeds.  this game offered me the possibility of getting good seats below face... but i guess you get what you pay for.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: hutch on October 15, 2009, 11:31:40 am
The Redskins are horrendously boring to watch and it has been so since 1993.... Win or lose they generally do not deliver good entertainment.... Not in the way some of the other teams do.. There's something about them that makes watching their games similar to a visit to the dentist. Its not about them being terrible- in my opinion- as much as it is about them being terrible to watch.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Mobius on October 15, 2009, 11:36:41 am
KC and Washington could actually be fairly competitive. Two equally terrible teams make for just as exciting of a game as two championship contenders.


If you bet significant money on one of the teams.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: chaz on October 15, 2009, 12:50:16 pm
It doesn't matter who they play.  Any skins game is snoozefest these days.  A horrible horrible product.  I don't know why I even watch anymore.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 16, 2009, 10:34:33 am
limbaugh ousted from Ram-buying group "because of Obama"... i'm loving this sh*t:

With Limbaugh out, Faulk to join bid?

ST. LOUIS -- Conservative radio personality Rush Limbaugh lashed out at NFL union leader DeMaurice Smith, activists Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson and the media a day after being dropped from a group trying to buy the St. Louis Rams.

On his syndicated show Thursday, Limbaugh said he was approached by St. Louis Blues chairman Dave Checketts earlier this year about participating in a Rams bid. Checketts assured him his involvement as a minority investor had been vetted by the NFL, he said.

"I said to him at this meeting, 'Are you aware of the firestorm?' He said 'We wouldn't have approached you if we hadn't taken care of that,' " said Limbaugh, a conservative favorite who is reviled by many liberals.

Limbaugh added that Checketts had told him his involvement had been cleared at the "highest levels of the NFL."

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and Colts owner Jim Irsay each expressed misgivings this week at a league-wide meeting about Limbaugh's involvement, with Goodell saying Limbaugh had made "polarizing" comments and Irsay vowing to vote against him.

On Wednesday, Checketts said Limbaugh had been dropped from the bid.

"This reflects where we're moving in an ethical nature," said Dan Lebowitz, executive director of the Center for Sports and Society at Northeastern University.

"The league has 78 percent African-American players," Lebowitz said. "Do you bring in someone who has made racist statements to own a team that's largely made up of players the owner has made slurring statements about?"

With Limbaugh out, the Checketts group is sifting through new investors. A person familiar with the process said global financier and philanthropist George Soros is not under consideration to be a part of the Checketts group. Former Rams running back Marshall Faulk could be part of it, a source said.

Checketts is a ways away from reconfiguring the investment group, as the Rams are a ways from being sold at this point.

During a 15-minute counterattack at the start of his show, Limbaugh said he believes he's been made an example by a players' union seeking leverage in talks over a new collective bargaining agreement. What happened to him was an illustration of "Obama's America on full display," the commentator said.

Limbaugh's history hurt his participation in the bid. In 2003, he was forced to resign from ESPN's "Sunday NFL Countdown" after saying of the Eagles' Donovan McNabb: "I think what we've had here is a little social concern in the NFL. The media has been very desirous that a black quarterback do well."

According to transcripts posted on his Web site, in 2007 Limbaugh said: "The NFL all too often looks like a game between the Bloods and the Crips without any weapons. There, I said it."

Limbaugh blamed Smith, executive director of the NFLPA and an "Obama-ite," along with Sharpton and Jackson, whom he referred to as "race hustlers," for Checketts' decision to drop him. He said his sacking was an example of the political clout wielded by President Barack Obama's administration.

"What is happening to the National Football League, what is about to happen to it, has already happened to Wall Street, has already happened to the automobile business," Limbaugh said.

Limbaugh said he was victimized in the media by "misreporting, lying, repeating the lies while also saying 'Limbaugh denies,' repeating the made-up quotes, the blind hatred."

"Believe me, the hatred that exists in this is found in the sportswriter community, it's found in the news business, it's found in the race hustler business," Limbaugh said.

Limbaugh said Checketts telephoned on Tuesday, asking him to withdraw from the group. Limbaugh responded that he wouldn't withdraw and that Checketts would have to "go public and fire me," and thought the news would be made public Thursday morning.

Smith, the NFLPA head, last week voiced his objections to Limbaugh's bid with Goodell, and urged players to speak out. Sharpton and Jackson also attacked Limbaugh's involvement, asserting that Limbaugh's track record on race should exclude him.

Limbaugh said the real reason he's out is the NFLPA's attempt to influence negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement. "It's designed to intimidate the owners, frighten the owners, and say, 'We're running this league now, gang, not you,' " Limbaugh said.

Limbaugh said he's "lost nothing" because of the episode and vowed to continue being the "biggest non-paid promoter of the sport."

The Checketts group is among a reported half-dozen bidders for the Rams, and would keep the team in St. Louis. The children of the late Georgia Frontiere, who inherited the team upon her death in January 2008, announced in June that they had hired the investment firm Goldman Sachs to review assets of the estate, including the football team.

All franchise sales must be approved by 24 of the NFL's 32 teams -- an ownership group that is overwhelmingly white, conservative and focused on the bottom line, which could have suffered if fans or advertisers were angered by Limbaugh.

"There's an argument that says the very principles Rush espouses -- the free market -- are what did him in," said the conservative radio host Michael Smerconish. "This IS the free market. These are private businessmen who made a decision about what was in the best business interest of their thriving venture.

"It's definitely ironic. There's a bit of hypocrisy here as well," Smerconish said, citing a study that showed 70 percent of NFL owners' political contributions went to Republicans. "Through their dollars they are very supportive of the sort of politics that Rush talks."

Said the Rev. Al Sharpton, who was a loud voice of opposition to Limbaugh's bid: "It's remarkable in that he was denied by other powerful whites. At the end of the day, his own peers said, 'You are a liability.' Even the rich and powerful do not want to be identified with racism."

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4562338
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on October 16, 2009, 12:28:34 pm
He got everything he wanted out of it.  Attention, free press and something else to bitch about.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 17, 2009, 08:03:03 pm
for tomorrow's skins-chiefs game, stubhub has uppers for $8, lowers for $35, and 4th row on the 50 year line for $79... between the sucky team and the horrible weather, looks like people can't give their tickets away.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on October 18, 2009, 10:19:48 pm
to me the worst part of seeing a game live is peeing and missing half a quarter

rush was screwed by the free market system. maybe he should buy a team in france
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 19, 2009, 12:30:05 am
weather turned out to be much nicer than predicted.  game turned out to be as bad as predicted.

anyone wanna cop the "but it's only week X" routine?

rush was screwed by the free market system. maybe he should buy a team in france

early contender for POTW.  may or may not stand, but it's solid.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Mobius on October 19, 2009, 12:32:36 am
It f*cking sucks that team owners aren't accountable.  The Redskins make me sad
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: ggw on October 19, 2009, 01:31:00 am
It f*cking sucks that team owners aren't accountable.  The Redskins make me sad

As a small boy, Daniel Snyder loved the Redskins. As a small man, he bought them.
Quickly the dark cloud of his stewardship descended over Redskin nation......

Focused only on increasing his own power, he has rendered this historic franchise and its loyal fans powerless.
He is the taker of life, wealth and happiness.  He yields only darkness and doom??

He is the man we know now as??

DARTH SNYDER

www.darthsnyder.com

Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Mobius on October 19, 2009, 11:01:36 am
Aint it hard when you discover that
He really wasnt where its at
After he took from you everything he could steal.

How does it feel
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 20, 2009, 06:15:01 pm
Redskins Hold Press Conference To Announce They Are Still Sort Of A Football Team

(http://www.theonion.com/content/files/images/Jim-Zorn.article_large.jpg)

WASHINGTON?Washington Redskins head coach Jim Zorn held a press conference Sunday to reassure fans that, despite an inability to effectively execute their offense, defense, or special teams, the Redskins were still somewhat comparable to a real football team. "It's been a tough season so far, and even though we are 2-4, we still have players, uniforms, Motorola headsets?all the components that technically constitute an NFL team, sort of," Zorn said while grimacing and making a "so-so" gesture with his hand. "Sure, I was stripped of play-calling responsibilities by team management, and I really don't have any clue who will play quarterback for us this Sunday, but I swear to you, in a weird, very convoluted way, we are in the NFL." Placing his hand over the microphone, Zorn then spoke briefly with an unidentified man near the stage, and announced that, for what it's worth, the organization owns the Internet domain name washingtonredskins.com through 2010.

http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/redskins_hold_press
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on October 20, 2009, 06:28:20 pm
I actually thought the news on the ticker during Sunday night football was an onion headline:

"Redskins Zorn Stripped of Play-Calling Duties"

And I thought to myself (or actually, venerable can tell you that I thought it out loud), "He's the fucking head coach - who has the power to take that away from him who wouldn't rather just take away his job all together?"

Turns out there's another layer between the Head coach and the owner who isn't only in charge of player personnel (like a GM).  Front office cheif Vinny Cerrato took those duties away and didn't give them to the Offensive Coordinator, instead hiring an outsider and calling him "offensive consultant."

Seriously, how many layers can they possibly have and wonder why things are still going so badly?
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: chaz on October 20, 2009, 08:40:45 pm
My favorite onion sports headline ever was "Randy Moss Complains he's Getting the Ball too Much.

Every day I go the post online and expect to see the headling that Zorn's been canned. 
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: ggw on October 21, 2009, 01:02:24 am
"offensive consultant."

Translation = "Future Interim Head Coach"
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Mobius on October 21, 2009, 01:11:58 am
i wish there were two sherms, like the two bobs in office space


Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: chaz on October 21, 2009, 11:40:10 am
"offensive consultant."

Translation = "Future Interim Head Coach"
He won't be head coach if there is an interim. 
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: chaz on October 21, 2009, 03:37:11 pm
I was reading another article about the controversy surrounding the Redskins name today, this one centered around the skins' unofficial mascot Chief Zee.

And it occurred to me...At this point it would not surprise me is Danny went along with the pressure at some point and changed the name.  First of all, as with any logo/uniform change there is the obvious financial windfall assoaciated with schwag sales with the new logo/whatever.  Danny likes the $$ so it would be a no brainer on this front. 

Changing the name would draw the ire of many long time fans to be sure.  But let's face it...the majority would would eventually get over it and step in line like everyone else.

The other win win for Danny would be public opinion.  Not only is he hated in DC, but he's seen (accurately) by most people around the country as a spoiled buffoon that knows nothing about football who is driving the team into the ground.  What better PR move to repair the public perception than to ditch a trademark that is seen not only as offensive to native americans and many others but also outdated and out of touch with the times?  It's a move that would also provide a huge smoke screen to the larger issue, that being a floundering disfunctional club that is losing its grip on its fanbase.

Thoughts?????
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 21, 2009, 04:02:39 pm
DC football is way too steeped in tradition.  in fact, at the moment the ONLY thing the team really has going for it is tradition (aka loyalty).  zero chance, IMO, that they change the name and try to re-build the brand under a new banner. 

(but if they do, i hear that the name  "the bullets" is available...)
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Mobius on October 21, 2009, 05:03:55 pm
i wish there were two sherms, like the two bobs in office space





I wrote this without realizing there actually ARE two Sherms . . . heretofore unknown offensive coordinator Sherman Smith! 

Vinny: So, Jim, what's happening? Aahh, now, are you going to go ahead and have that Gameplan for us this afternoon?
Zorn: No.
Vinny: Ah. Yeah. So I guess we should probably go ahead and have a little talk. Hmm?
Zorn: Not right now, Vinny, I'm kinda busy. In fact, look, I'm gonna have to ask you to just go ahead and come back another time. I got a meeting with the Sherms in a couple of minutes.
Vinny: I wasn't aware of a meeting with them.
Zorn: Yeah, they called me at home.   



Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: chaz on October 21, 2009, 05:49:13 pm
Apparently the two Sherms is causing confusion in the headsets on gameday.

What do you think, Sherm?
Who, me?

I predict a massive clusterfuck getting the plays in on time this sunday.  The skins can't manage a game to save their lives as it is.  Now the plays will go from Sherm up in the booth, down to Zorn on the sidelines and then into the qb. 

As a skins fan I'm just waiting for double-secret rock bottom.  Only then can the healing begin.  Bring on the carnage.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on October 21, 2009, 06:30:00 pm
I wrote this without realizing there actually ARE two Sherms . . . heretofore unknown offensive coordinator Sherman Smith! 


Haha, I laughed because I thought you knew they had two guys in charge of the offense named Sherm....It's gonna be awesome.  NFL films (or at least Coors Light) need to do something with this....
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on October 21, 2009, 08:04:29 pm
all i have to say is sports talk radio in the dc area has been amazing lately
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: chaz on October 21, 2009, 11:50:04 pm
All I have to say to the skins going into monday night is stay medium boys, stay medium.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on October 27, 2009, 09:50:23 am
All I have to say to the skins going into monday night is stay medium boys, stay medium.
 
not sure what "stay medium" means, but i'm pretty sure they didn't do it last night.  didn't do much of anything, really.  awful, awful team.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Mobius on October 28, 2009, 11:58:12 pm
Dan Snyder has so many similarities to Jay Gatz.  He's like the Shitty Gatsby.  This young shadowy character from unexpectedly humble beginnings with business savvy who made good gonneggions and grew sketchy businesses (telemarketing?) and created an expansive facade which ultimately masked a kind of pathetic character at the core.  Unfortunately its the Redskins floating in the pool.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: ggw on November 20, 2009, 11:45:13 am
The economic rationale for Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th down against the Colts:

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf)

 
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Seth Hurwitz on November 20, 2009, 01:08:29 pm
I agreed with Belichick

if Peyton started in his end zone with 2 minutes left and the game on the line, he would've scored

anything to try & keep the ball out of his hands was worth the attempt, because the alternative was lose anyway
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on November 20, 2009, 01:10:31 pm
The economic rationale for Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th down against the Colts:

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf)

 

That paper talks mostly about going for it in your opponents zone - it doesn't really create a rationale for going for it in your own zone.  Also, it creates no varibale for time remaining, nor is there a varibale for time remaining vs lead to protect - two huge factors in this decision particular decision.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface on November 20, 2009, 01:47:49 pm
Dan Snyder has so many similarities to Jay Gatz.  He's like the Shitty Gatsby.  This young shadowy character from unexpectedly humble beginnings with business savvy who made good gonneggions and grew sketchy businesses (telemarketing?) and created an expansive facade which ultimately masked a kind of pathetic character at the core.  Unfortunately its the Redskins floating in the pool.
Wow, that's actually a really good analogy.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Venerable Bede on November 20, 2009, 04:36:50 pm
perhaps posnanski does a better job (http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/16/going-for-it/?8e632ba0)

"The Patriots best PERCENTAGE chance was to go for it on fourth down."

it's going to take a long time for these types of statistics to reach the level it has in baseball.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on November 20, 2009, 07:48:23 pm
perhaps posnanski does a better job (http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/16/going-for-it/?8e632ba0)

As usual, you simply site a blog without any recognition of what's going on.  You didn't even watch the end of the game....

Nonetheless, give the credit where it's due:  Brian Burke of the New York Times is actually the one who did all the work and said that the best percentage chance was to go for it.  Posnanski did nothing besides read Burke's piece and quote it verbatim.  At he least he gave the proper citation, which you failed to do here.

Secondly, you are using the averages of the NFL.  Where's the increased chance a defense has to stop an offense because the team on defense has the offense's signals because they've been illegally videotaping the offense for years?  Surely there has to be some derivitave for that right? 

Obviously I'm joking, but I'm using that as an example that there are too many variables for "simple" analysis to explain decisions. 

Where's the home vs road analysis?  How many of those under 2:00 minute touchdonws were good offenses vs bad defenses or vice versa?  How many of those were with 1,2 or 3 timeouts?  Healthy offenses versus healthy defenses?  All of these are simple factors that should be taken into consideration that are completely ignored by Brian Burke.         

Guess what, sports don't live in a vaccuum and that's why you can't use simple theory to explain it.

Bottom line, he ruined his defense's confidence for the rest of the season by his arrogance to win one single football game.  Where's the analysis for the effect of that?  Oh wait, you can't measure psyche in a vacuum.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on November 20, 2009, 07:52:46 pm
it's going to take a long time for these types of statistics to reach the level it has in baseball.

76-86
76-86
75-87

Maybe these levels for statistics in baseball were a bit overblown?
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Venerable Bede on November 20, 2009, 08:25:56 pm

Where's the home vs road analysis?  How many of those under 2:00 minute touchdonws were good offenses vs bad defenses or vice versa?  How many of those were with 1,2 or 3 timeouts?  Healthy offenses versus healthy defenses?  All of these are simple factors that should be taken into consideration that are completely ignored by Brian Burke.         

i think this answered your own question......baseball has all sorts of stats, night games in july versus pitchers coming off of 100+ pitch starts. . .yet, football doesn't yet have the stats you want, and until it does, we have to deal with what football does have, and that's on a 4th down and 2 yards or less, the average NFL team is successful 60% of the time.  the individual coach can then ratchet that number up or down depending on the variables, and belichick came to the conclusion that his best chance to win the game (YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME), was to go for it on 4th down (whether the play call was the correct one, which i think is what this argument really boils down to, is a completely separate question).  i think that the statistical analysis supports that conclusion.  but, the NFL old timers, the ones who punt on 4th and 1 from the opponents 45 yard line, say that's ridiculous. . . .and i'm not buying it.  brian burke, easterbrook and all the others, have made a significantly compelling case that belichick made the right decision......you have 4 downs, not 3 downs and oh well, let's punt....

as for baseball. . . moneyball showed how to use an undervalued statistic to help allow for a small market team to compete. . .obp, which was undervalued, is now probably overvalued.....and baseball has progressed beyond obp, now it ops, ops+, era+, win shares and so forth. . .football has nothing that even comes close to this.

Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on November 20, 2009, 08:40:20 pm
but, the NFL old timers, the ones who punt on 4th and 1 from the opponents 45 yard line, say that's ridiculous. . . .and i'm not buying it.

4th and 1 from the opponents 45 is a completely different argument than 4th and 2 from your own 28 with 2 minutes to go and a 6 point lead.  Nobody young or old in football not named Belicheck has said this was a good idea.  Just a bunch of "stat" heads who you've already admitted are not using a full deck for their equations.

On Sunday you and I have always thought you should go for it on 4th and 1 from the opponents 45, but mostly because punters not named Sepulveda suck.  I'm only sad that we weren't watching the game together so I wouldn't have to listen to your contrarian ways because you find it chic to agree with guys like Easterbrook.  If you were there, you would have called it a bad idea.  And you would have been right.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on November 20, 2009, 09:16:09 pm
Bottom line, he ruined his defense's confidence for the rest of the season

bottom line?  hyperbole much?
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on November 20, 2009, 09:21:24 pm
bottom line?  hyperbole much?

OK.  45 is the over under, with the Pats being an 11 point favorite.  (45/2)-(11/2)=17.

I'll take the over on the Jets scoring 17 points.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on November 20, 2009, 09:28:07 pm
first, i'd take that bet mostly 'cause it'll give us grounds for smack (!) talk.  name your proposed wager.

second, the link between the jets scoring more than the vegas line gives them credit for is a very very tenuous way of proving that the pat's D is done for the season.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: godsshoeshine on November 21, 2009, 03:01:55 pm
only massholes who care more about baseball during the winter think going for it on 4th down was a good idea. and even then only 45% of left handers at night

Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: Venerable Bede on November 23, 2009, 03:44:08 pm
first, i'd take that bet mostly 'cause it'll give us grounds for smack (!) talk.  name your proposed wager.

second, the link between the jets scoring more than the vegas line gives them credit for is a very very tenuous way of proving that the pat's D is done for the season.

so, what did sweetcell win?

Pats defense, productive offense beat Jets 31-14 (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/recap?gid=20091122017)
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on November 23, 2009, 04:15:30 pm
sweetcell won nothing, we never agreed to a wager.  but i'll claim the moral victory, "i told you so" is reward enough.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: vansmack on November 23, 2009, 08:47:01 pm
sweetcell won nothing, we never agreed to a wager.  but i'll claim the moral victory, "i told you so" is reward enough.

And I conceded at halftime via text message.  Sanchez was horrible and all the USC guys I was with said you can forget about him playing in 50 degrees or below weather.  I should have waited for the Drew Brees week to shoot my mouth off.
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on November 23, 2009, 09:26:51 pm
I should have waited for the Drew Brees week to shoot my mouth off.

except that the saints are averaging over 30 points a game as is.  they'd have to score 50+ points to prove that a defense has serious issues.  somehow i doubt the pats will let brees & co run away with 50+ points (however the pats won't keep pace with the saints).
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: sweetcell on November 24, 2009, 03:22:30 am
all the USC guys I was with said you can forget about him playing in 50 degrees or below weather. 

great trait to have when playing in new york, in the AFC (north) East...
Title: Re: 2009-2010 NFL discussion thread
Post by: ggw on December 17, 2009, 11:40:32 am
Vinny Cerrato resigns:

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=293&sid=1842940

Now if only Dan Snyder would resign...