2009-2010 NFL discussion thread

[Mobius]

i wish there were two sherms, like the two bobs in office space

I wrote this without realizing there actually ARE two Sherms . . . heretofore unknown offensive coordinator Sherman Smith! 

Vinny: So, Jim, what's happening? Aahh, now, are you going to go ahead and have that Gameplan for us this afternoon?
Zorn: No.
Vinny: Ah. Yeah. So I guess we should probably go ahead and have a little talk. Hmm?
Zorn: Not right now, Vinny, I'm kinda busy. In fact, look, I'm gonna have to ask you to just go ahead and come back another time. I got a meeting with the Sherms in a couple of minutes.
Vinny: I wasn't aware of a meeting with them.
Zorn: Yeah, they called me at home.   

[chaz]

Apparently the two Sherms is causing confusion in the headsets on gameday.

What do you think, Sherm?
Who, me?

I predict a massive clusterfuck getting the plays in on time this sunday.  The skins can't manage a game to save their lives as it is.  Now the plays will go from Sherm up in the booth, down to Zorn on the sidelines and then into the qb. 

As a skins fan I'm just waiting for double-secret rock bottom.  Only then can the healing begin.  Bring on the carnage.

[vansmack]

I wrote this without realizing there actually ARE two Sherms . . . heretofore unknown offensive coordinator Sherman Smith! 

Haha, I laughed because I thought you knew they had two guys in charge of the offense named Sherm....It's gonna be awesome.  NFL films (or at least Coors Light) need to do something with this....

[godsshoeshine]

all i have to say is sports talk radio in the dc area has been amazing lately

[chaz]

All I have to say to the skins going into monday night is stay medium boys, stay medium.

[sweetcell]

All I have to say to the skins going into monday night is stay medium boys, stay medium.

 
not sure what "stay medium" means, but i'm pretty sure they didn't do it last night.  didn't do much of anything, really.  awful, awful team.

[Mobius]

Dan Snyder has so many similarities to Jay Gatz.  He's like the Shitty Gatsby.  This young shadowy character from unexpectedly humble beginnings with business savvy who made good gonneggions and grew sketchy businesses (telemarketing?) and created an expansive facade which ultimately masked a kind of pathetic character at the core.  Unfortunately its the Redskins floating in the pool.

[ggw]

The economic rationale for Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th down against the Colts:

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf

 

[Seth Hurwitz]

I agreed with Belichick

if Peyton started in his end zone with 2 minutes left and the game on the line, he would've scored

anything to try & keep the ball out of his hands was worth the attempt, because the alternative was lose anyway

[vansmack]

The economic rationale for Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th down against the Colts:

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf

 

That paper talks mostly about going for it in your opponents zone - it doesn't really create a rationale for going for it in your own zone.  Also, it creates no varibale for time remaining, nor is there a varibale for time remaining vs lead to protect - two huge factors in this decision particular decision.

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

Dan Snyder has so many similarities to Jay Gatz.  He's like the Shitty Gatsby.  This young shadowy character from unexpectedly humble beginnings with business savvy who made good gonneggions and grew sketchy businesses (telemarketing?) and created an expansive facade which ultimately masked a kind of pathetic character at the core.  Unfortunately its the Redskins floating in the pool.

Wow, that's actually a really good analogy.

[Venerable Bede]

perhaps posnanski does a better job

"The Patriots best PERCENTAGE chance was to go for it on fourth down."

it's going to take a long time for these types of statistics to reach the level it has in baseball.

[vansmack]

perhaps posnanski does a better job

As usual, you simply site a blog without any recognition of what's going on.  You didn't even watch the end of the game....

Nonetheless, give the credit where it's due:  Brian Burke of the New York Times is actually the one who did all the work and said that the best percentage chance was to go for it.  Posnanski did nothing besides read Burke's piece and quote it verbatim.  At he least he gave the proper citation, which you failed to do here.

Secondly, you are using the averages of the NFL.  Where's the increased chance a defense has to stop an offense because the team on defense has the offense's signals because they've been illegally videotaping the offense for years?  Surely there has to be some derivitave for that right? 

Obviously I'm joking, but I'm using that as an example that there are too many variables for "simple" analysis to explain decisions. 

Where's the home vs road analysis?  How many of those under 2:00 minute touchdonws were good offenses vs bad defenses or vice versa?  How many of those were with 1,2 or 3 timeouts?  Healthy offenses versus healthy defenses?  All of these are simple factors that should be taken into consideration that are completely ignored by Brian Burke.         

Guess what, sports don't live in a vaccuum and that's why you can't use simple theory to explain it.

Bottom line, he ruined his defense's confidence for the rest of the season by his arrogance to win one single football game.  Where's the analysis for the effect of that?  Oh wait, you can't measure psyche in a vacuum.

[vansmack]

it's going to take a long time for these types of statistics to reach the level it has in baseball.

76-86
76-86
75-87

Maybe these levels for statistics in baseball were a bit overblown?

[Venerable Bede]

Where's the home vs road analysis?  How many of those under 2:00 minute touchdonws were good offenses vs bad defenses or vice versa?  How many of those were with 1,2 or 3 timeouts?  Healthy offenses versus healthy defenses?  All of these are simple factors that should be taken into consideration that are completely ignored by Brian Burke.         

i think this answered your own question......baseball has all sorts of stats, night games in july versus pitchers coming off of 100+ pitch starts. . .yet, football doesn't yet have the stats you want, and until it does, we have to deal with what football does have, and that's on a 4th down and 2 yards or less, the average NFL team is successful 60% of the time.  the individual coach can then ratchet that number up or down depending on the variables, and belichick came to the conclusion that his best chance to win the game (YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME), was to go for it on 4th down (whether the play call was the correct one, which i think is what this argument really boils down to, is a completely separate question).  i think that the statistical analysis supports that conclusion.  but, the NFL old timers, the ones who punt on 4th and 1 from the opponents 45 yard line, say that's ridiculous. . . .and i'm not buying it.  brian burke, easterbrook and all the others, have made a significantly compelling case that belichick made the right decision......you have 4 downs, not 3 downs and oh well, let's punt....

as for baseball. . . moneyball showed how to use an undervalued statistic to help allow for a small market team to compete. . .obp, which was undervalued, is now probably overvalued.....and baseball has progressed beyond obp, now it ops, ops+, era+, win shares and so forth. . .football has nothing that even comes close to this.