THE NEWSHOUR WITH JIM LEHRER to Broadcast in High-Definition Format Beginning Monday, December 17, 2007 Which brings me to
Tech Prediction #4: 2008 will be the long anticipated year of REAL HD Revolution The Satellite industry (most notably DirecTV) has now given the cable network channels a platform to deliver HD Content, and it will be up to the Networks to finally provide the HD content. This is the year they do it.
The Major Networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX) have been doing a decent job of HD content for it's primetime shows, and everyone knows sports has been driving the broadcast HD bandwagon for sometime. And now the cable network channels will finally catch up.
DirecTV offers over 75 different HD channels and will likely have 150 by the end of 2008, the Networks finally have a reason to invest in HD. Content was always the problem, but by the end of 2008, the majority of the TV Americans watch most often will be available in HD.
So that leaves two problems: (1) Other content deliverers and (2) the price of HD TVs. The other content delivers vary per type of delivery. The Cable networks are in big trouble. BIG. They are desperately trying to use existing infrastructure (coaxial cable) to broadcast HD content. This is a losing battle, but one they will continue to fight with switching technologies and other highly touted possible solutions. Bottom line, I wouldn't be investing in Cable companies in the near future. The Fiber Optic companies are in pretty good shape, and I think FiOS stands to gain the most of the newer companies to take a lot of business from Cable co's in 2008. AT&T on the other hand is in for a big shock - they built a network with copper to the door (instead of Fiber to the door like FiOS) - this will prove disasterous in the HD revolution. Dish has a decent chance of surviving if they invest in new satellites - but they are way behind DirecTV these days and slipping faster everyday.
As for the price of HD TVs, they have been falling very quickly, and with a decent sized HDTV (26inch) below $400, I think it's not unreasonable to see an HDTV below $300, maybe even $250 by the end of the year. With the price of iPods rising, it makes the HDTV at $250 for the teenagers bedroom the Xmas gift de jour of 2008.
When Comedy Central goes HD in 2008, you'll know I was on to something here.