In a rare occurence, I'm lecturing this morning in an international relations course on the situation in Pakistan. In a previous career I worked with Pakistani lawyres and judges to help modernize their 1991 constitution, efforts that were quashed with Musharraf's coup.
Lucky for you, I will share my Cliff Notes so you don't have to take the course. You will not be graded or tested on the following material. You will simply be able to sound like you know what you're talking about at a cocktail party this weekend.
PAKISTAN ?? You should care more about this particular country??s civil unrest than the others occuring today for one reason ?? they have the bomb!
Players:
General Pervez Musharraf (Self-Appointed President, head of the Army)
Benazir Bhutto (former Prime Minister ?? 80??s and 90??s)
Nawaz Sharif (former Prime Minister ?? 90??s)
Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry (Chief Justice 2000??s)
In 1998, while Pakistan was at war with India over the Kashmir region, Pakistan tested a nuclear weapon. The Clinton administration and the UN immediately imposed economic sanctions on Pakistan. In 1999, General Pervez Musharraf, attacked Indian forces in Kargil (part of Kashmir), according to then Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, Musharraf did this on his own authority.
In October of 1999, under pressure from the US Government to seek a diplomatic end to the Kashmir conflict, Sharif tried to replace Musharraf as head of the Army while he was out of the country. Unfortunately for Sharif, the Army was loyal to Musharraf, cleared the airport of Sharif??s police forces and allowed Musharraf to return to Pakistan. Musharraf promptly suspended the Constitution in the Coup, declared himself Chief Executive of Pakistan and promised elections ??soon.? Sharif was then sent to exile in Saudi Arabia.
In 2001, without an election, Musharraf declared himself President of Pakistan so that he could represent Pakistan??s interests in meeting with India over the future of the Kashmir region (and how two nuclear powers who distrust each other will live next to each other). This angered the judges, who forced Musharraf to hold elections by Oct 2002. An interesting world event occurred on the way to those elections: Sept 11, 2001.
In preparing the attack of Afghanistan, the Bush administration called the former US ally (they had sent troops to the previous gulf war) and asked them which side they were on: the terrorists or those fighting the terrorists? Musharraf declared his support for the anti-terrorist forces in early 2002 and upset the Islamic western half of his country, known to be friendly to the Taliban and Al Qaeda (Osama Bin Laden is suspected of still being in the western tribal region of Pakistan). The Bush Adminsitration promptly lifted many sanctions against the Musharraf led Pakistan and supplied the government with between $4-$10 Billion of military aid to fight Al Qaeda in the western region.
In April, Musharraf, on the heels of this anti-terrorism pronouncement, held a referendum to ask the people to extend his term as Presidency for 5 years. The legality of the referendum was questioned and the vote itself was seen as fraudulent. Musharraf, under international political pressure, apologized for the referendum and held elections in October of 2002. Pro-Musharraf parties then elected Musharraf as President of Paksitan while the opposition parties sat the elections questioning the legality of Musharraf running for President.
Fast forward five years, and Musharraf??s term is coming to an end. This time the lawyers and the judges were prepared to fight Musharraf on Constitutional grounds, namely that the Pakistani Constitution forbids a standing member of the Army from running for the office of the President. In March of this year, Musharraf relieved Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry from his duties as Chief Justice, hoping to appoint a judge sympathetic to Musharraf. This sent the lawyers and the judges to the streets in protest and Musharraf relented. The Supreme Court then reiterated that Musharraf could not be President and in the Army at the same time. At question was whether or not he could run for President while in the Army - so Musharraf ran for President promising to step down if he was elected. The Supreme Court allowed the election withholding their decision on the legality of Musharraf??s run for office until Nov. 15. In the meantime, Sharif attempted to return to Pakistan to announce his candidacy for the office, however, on the runway, he was charged with corruption while in office and promptly returned to Saudi Arabia.
Another former Prime Minister returned to Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto. She had been in self exile avoiding her own corruption charges. The exact agreement between her and Musharraf is in question, however, Musharraf allowed her to return with immunity. The speculation is possibly one of two things: (1) she has the popular support that Musharraf does not have and possibly promised her the Prime Minister role if she helped him get re-??elected? to the Presidency or (2) under the previous guise Msuharraf allowed her back in the country, planned her assassination in order to frame the extremists so that he can declare a state of emergency and maintain power.
Well, an assassination attempt on Bhutto failed (Musharraf is not letting international police organizations help with the investigation as to who attempted to assassinate Bhutto) and remember that Supreme Court decision? The Supreme Court attempted to beat Musharraf to the State of Emergency by announcing the decision on the legality of his candidacy on the 5th instead of the 15th. Musharraf caught wind of this announcement and, as you??ve seen this past week, Musharraf declared a State of Emergency, suspended the constitution and the elections, rounded up approximately 5,000 judges (including the Supreme Court Justice and those in his court not loyal to Musharraf), lawyers, and political party heads. The lawyers then took the streets in calculated protests (as a lawyer, I don??t think I??ve ever been more proud of the profession then I was earlier in the week to see them defy Musharraf and his police, putting themselves in grave danger on behalf of the pro-democracy people in Pakistan). Musharraf promised (again) to hold new elections in Feb and that he would (again) step down as head of the Army. The international community said that they were going to let Pakistan sort this out until there was mass public protest. Bhutto then organized a mass protest for this morning, however Musharraf squashed it, put Bhutto under house arrest for ??her safety? and blockade the protesters in Bhutto??s home city. Bhutto promises to attempt to take to the streets again with her supporters next week.
So for the first time since the perestroika, a nuclear nation is experiencing civil unrest, and while it??s an exciting time in Pakistan, it??s a frightening time for the rest of the world, especially with Al Qaeda prominently in the country.
