ORIOLES

[shemptiness]

12-17 since the break.

And 16-21 to start the season.  And yet they're only 2 back.  If anyone doesn't think the Angels are going to rattle off a couple 8-2 stretches in a row and be one of the wild card teams, let's put some money in a pay pal account.

The world is a better place when big money teams fail.

[shemptiness]

I am just happy they're still in the hunt in August. 

As usual, you've got the proper attitude.  What the O's, Pirates and A's are doing has been fun to watch.

So the 3 teams you mentioned should just be happy to be in the race while your Angels are predestined to win it?  How condescending.  I guess the Angels are now the Yankees of the West.

[vansmack]

I'm not alone in this line of thinking, and I'm certainly not saying this without a lot to back it up. I'm not just trying to piss off Orioles fans, because I rather like them.

This will come down to pitching, and neither the A's nor the Orioles have a single pitcher with 170-200 innings pitched in a single season (save for oft-injured Brandon McCarthy who did it only last year and has spent 2-months on the DL this year and Bartolo Colon who hasn't done it in 7 years).  The longer the season goes, the more these tired arms are going to start showing kinks in the armor.  Only a foolish man would bet against (LAA) Weaver, Wilson, Haren, Grienke or (TB) Price, Shields, Hellickson and Moore or (ChiW) Sale, Floyd, Liriano, Peavy or (Det) Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Porcello.  The AL Wild Card Race is deep with strong arms....the question is who's the odd man out between the White Sox, Tigers, Angels or Rays?  My hope is that the Central teams beat each other up and only one makes it. 

I'm sorry, but I just don't see how Oakland's staff or Baltimore's staff has the horses to go the last 45 games.  Especially the Orioles - they're the only team in baseball with a +.500 record and a negative run differential, and it's not even close at -43.  That stuff catches up to you eventually.

The NL race is a little different.  The Pirates actually do have some arms with experience in Burnett, Coreia, Bedard and Rodriguez.  Even Karstens and Macdonald have thrown 170 innings in a season.  They just might not have the offense to contend with Atlanta or St Louis.  The Giants pitching staff is coming around and Dodgers all of a sudden have some depth.  I would love to see the Pirates break the drought, but I think Lincecum will save the Giants and the Cardinals and Braves battle it out for the second spot.

But hey, I've been wrong once.  Ask hutch.

[K8teebug]

You're not pissing me off by saying that.  I think most of us Orioles fans, especially those of us who watch (almost) all the games have been wondering when this will end.  But, it's not ending.  They're scrappy.  And Hamel is probably going to come back in a few weeks.  We've got a great bullpen and we've got a manager who knows what he's doing.  Plus, the Orioles have fight.  They have scrappiness like I haven't seen since the late 90's.

As they said in 1989 - WHY NOT?

[Got Haggis?]

At the Jane's Addiction show last night in bmore, Perry Farrell gave the Orioles a shoutout last night for doing well, heh

[James Ford]

How tired can the Orioles starters be? They're onto the second string at this point. And Hammel will be returning after a nice rest. I'd say it's the Nats who should be worrying about tired arms.

Baseball players these days are such pussies. Back in my day, they had four man rotations and the pitchers routinely threw 250+ innings. Now you have pitchers (Troy Patton, i'm looking at you) going on the DL for falling down in a fucking parking garage.

[HoyaSaxa03]

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-05-29/news/31890940_1_suitcase-injury-brewers-manager-ron-roenicke

[vansmack]

How tired can the Orioles starters be? They're onto the second string at this point.

It was even worse that when I was laying out the starting rotations, I couldn't name but 2 of Baltimore's current starters off the top of my head - and I watch a lot of baseball.  Again, not a good sign down the stretch.

[chaz]

This brings up interesting questions about teams down the stretch.  Looking for workload stats by starting rotation (pitch count, innings pitched) but can't find anything.

[vansmack]

This brings up interesting questions about teams down the stretch.  Looking for workload stats by starting rotation (pitch count, innings pitched) but can't find anything.

I use baseball-reference.com and total them up myself. 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/

Then the team, then the year.  Click on the individual's name to get a history of what they've done previously.


For example:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2012-pitching.shtml

[shemptiness]

... the Orioles - they're the only team in baseball with a +.500 record and a negative run differential, and it's not even close at -43.  That stuff catches up to you eventually.

Run differential a flawed statistic

The Red Sox were +41 going into last night's game. 

[imbecile]

... the Orioles - they're the only team in baseball with a +.500 record and a negative run differential, and it's not even close at -43.  That stuff catches up to you eventually.

Run differential a flawed statistic

The Red Sox were +41 going into last night's game. 

An interesting article and right here we have two really arguments against it.  Are the O's really 11th best team in the AL and the Nats the best in baseball (before last nights game)?  Probably not.  However, every year, by the end of the year it's a stat that usually shakes out as an accurate predictor of playoff teams.  Granted not perfect, but I'm certainly in the camp that looks at run differential instead of wins and losses up until the final few weeks of the season. 

In the end, I think the O's will be a victim of their division like always; even in an off year the competition is just too good in the division and with the whole AL plodding along with the exception of the Yanks and Rangers, the Jays and Sox are clearly looking at that extra wild card this year and will up their game.  I think the Rays/Jays/Sox/O's all play each other pretty hard here on out and none of them make it.

[vansmack]

Run differential a flawed statistic

I wish people would stop stealing sh!t off our board. 

But look, the guy gives one example in the last 5 years and says it's flawd (which is the correct spelling on this board).  I will admit that it's not perfect, nothing ever is, but in the last 20 years it's held up pretty well.

I think the '05 Padres (who won their division with an 82-80 record) and the '97 Giants are the other exceptions to make the playoffs with a negative run differential since the Wild Card was added. 

So 3 out of the 68 teams to make the playoffs since the Wild Card was introduced have had a negative RD (or less than 5%).  All were from the NL where pitching rules over offense to a greater degree (even more interesting is that they were all from the NL West - I'll have to think about what that means), and 2 were swept in the NLDS, 1 was swept in the NLCS.

I don't think I'm going out on a limb here by saying that it doesn't look good for the O's given their pitching staff and that they're in the AL.

[K8teebug]

I say never say never.

The stats are against the Orioles.  negative run differential, 12 left fielders this season, the worst defense record in baseball.

But they're still winning games. 

[vansmack]

but I think Lincecum will save the Giants

Melky just got banned 50 games.  I'd like to revise this...