The Armageddon Election 2024 Or Apocalypse 2024

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

can I tell you how much it ginds my gears that dem twitter sounds just like maga with the "where did 15 million votes go"

dude they didn't go anywhere, other than sitting on the couch
dems didn't turn out, it's not a conspiracy

[gavroche]

To me Trump was brilliant to talk up tariffs because it was a way of saying to people “I will do something to help you keep your job.” I think this played well in PA. It’s just politics something Harris seemed to have no clue about. During the election you promise people a bunch of stuff you think they want to try and get their vote.

addressing the voting public's economic concerns is great politicking.  but doing it via straight-up lies and taking advantage of their lack of knowledge?  there has to be another way. 

should kamala have said "when i become president, i will order the Treasury to print more money and every american will receive $10,000 in cash, thus ensuring our economic recovery"?  would have been popular, and horrible policy.  at what point does it become an insult to the public's intelligence?

I don't actually think the policies matter.  Harris came up with policies for black men and hispanic (admittedly late in the game).  It's more about how you talk about them, and sounding like you authentically understand their issues and concerns.  And of course giving people someone to blame for it.  Trump gave us immigrants, trans-people and Joe Biden.  We didn't really have anyone to blame.

Also, it seems obvious to me that a lot of people have covid restrictions remorse.  They would rather have a few less relatives than pay so much for eggs.

[sweetcell]

sweets any updates on Ukraine?

Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of being elected.

is the caveat that we have to wait until Jan 21?

WARNING: long, meandering reply below.

trump isn't allowed negotiating with foreign governments until the afternoon of Jan 20 (Logan Act) so yeah we'll have to wait.  he could release his plan before then (along with his healthcare plan, his infrastructure plan, etc..).

mood in Ukraine, based on what i'm seeing, is a mix of resignation and resolve.  they survived the first 6-8 months of the conflict against a fresh and fully armed russian army with minimal help so continuing the fight against a depleted russia isn't something they're going to back away from, even without US support - it'll just be harder and more painful. 

other rando thoughts/observations:
- trump hasn't released *any* details of his peace plan.  the best guess is he will use military aid for UA and sanctions relief for RU as carrots and sticks to force a deal which would include UA ceding occupied territories.  but lots of other speculation out there, like trump could continue arms deliveries in exchange for access to UA's natural resources, specifically mining.
- European leaders need to figure out the path forward, since this is a european conflict.  they no longer have the luxury of dithering given how uncertain future US support is.  doing nothing and letting UA fall isn't an option for the EU.  worryingly it will take years to fully ramp up EU arms production.  in the short-term they might need to buy supplies from the US, South Korea, etc
- Politico is reporting that Biden is trying to rush remaining aid to UA as quickly as possible, the assumption being that anything that isn't delivered by Jan 20 will be stopped.  currently, perception of the biden admin is mixed at best: lots has been promised but actual deliveries are lagging, and his emphasis on escalation management (AKA don't do anything that even has a chance of pissing off the ruzzians) gives the impression that he doesn't actually want UA to win the war, so he delivers just enough to keep them in the fight.  the ban on using western weapons on ruzzian territory is hugely unpopular (some hope that with the election over, he'll lift this prohibition - tbd).  so maybe a shakeup in Washington is needed to move the needle...
- some Ukrainians are maintaining cautious optimism: trump is fickle and can't be predicted.  so far Zelensky has sent a congratulatory message to him, while putin is refusing to since ruzzia still considers the US to be a hostile nation.  maybe putin is just keeping up appearances and they're chatting behind the scenes, or maybe Zelensky can get trump on his side by stroking his ego and telling him he could be a hero by saving UA... who knows.
- there are modestic forced that could push trump in UA's corner or at least prevent a full abandonment.  a good number of GOP senators are strongly pro-Ukraine so they'll be pushing him.  if trump abandons UA and it falls to ruzzia, that would make trump look bad - he promised a deal & peace, so having ruzzia win on his watch isn't a look he wants.
- finally, Ukrainians and their supporters are rightfully more fearful of vance than they are of trump, as he is vehemently anti-Ukraine and is seen as much less flexible on the issue than trump.

[hutch]

There’s a lot to unpack and a lot of different factors that explain Trump’s win.

I think the first one and most important is that a majority of Americans like Trump. I know survey after survey says they have an unfavorable opinion of him but I don’t buy it. Fundamentally they like him and admire him. Maybe many have an unfavorable opinion but they just can’t help liking him deep down.  Maybe many just don’t want to admit it to themselves. They see themselves in him. They may not think he is a role model and that he is flawed and a bit of a clown but they look at themselves in the mirror and see the same thing. In a way the line from the movie Nixon still applies but sort of in reverse : “They look at you (JFK) and see who they want to be. They look at me (Nixon) and see who they really are.” If it hadn’t been for Covid he would have easily been reelected in 2020.

I think a second factor that touches on the first is Americans have just gotten more selfish and meaner.  Just the day to day I observe is so different from 25 years ago. Why has this happened? Part of it has to be social media and part of it is people have been struggling. It’s been tough times with small exceptions since Bill Clinton. We haven’t had a big and sustained economic boom in a quarter century. This has made things a bit more desperate with everyone in it for themselves no matter who they have to step on. It’s a law of the jungle mentality about chasing the Benjamin’s. 25 years ago people had to that point maybe had a job or two their entire lives while now many go from one job to another over and over and over again. A lot of things people used to take for granted like pensions have been whittled away. Consequently it’s a harsher landscape and everything is ok if you are trying to get yours. And that’s why Trump lying, cheating and scamming half the world doesn’t register: people look up to him for it and think I would do the same thing if I could. And that’s why inflation is such a big deal: because for a quarter century the economic landscape has been harsh for most Americans and inflation is making these same people poorer. Imagine if you are trying to save to send a kid to college and the cost of college keeps going up and now on top of that your groceries are going up. You are fucked! You can’t catch a break! Every time it looks like you are going to catch a break you get 9-11, the Great Recession, tepid growth during Obama..things begin to improve under Trump and COVID then inflation. You just can’t catch a break. So you get bitter and you begin to blame the “illegal” immigrants etc. And the government ignores you and tells you inflation has come down when what they mean is the rate of inflation has come down. You are still fucked! College costs don’t go down and your salary hikes were outstripped by inflation for a couple of years. You are behind where you used to be.

[Space Freely]

Are you saying most women see themselves in Trump?