Nostradamus 2020 election edition

[hutch]

Post any predictions here by Monday night...


I think the following are interesting... they are what I am thinking about these last few days


1. % of eligible voters that will vote... I guess it’s barely over 50% usually (about 140 million in 2016)

2. Do democrats flip Senate?

3. Popular vote percentages for Biden and Trump

4. Electoral college split out of 538 total with 270 needed for win

5. Will we have a clear result Tuesday that Trump accepts win or lose?

[Space Freely]

Elaine Chao is Anonymous.

[Hatch, guerrilla-poserll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Elaine Chao is Anonymous.

nope...Sidehatch is Anonymous, get it straight!

[sweetcell]

imma callin' a blue wave:

1. 65% - yeah, you heard me.
2. yes
3. Biden 52%, trump 45%
4. Biden 335, Trump 203
5. doesn't matter whether the result is clear or not: trump won't accept his loss on tuesday or any other day.  but answering the question: late tuesday (actually wednesday morning), reputable news outlets will project a biden win but will not be able to confirm it.

[WALKonBack]

I predict:

1.  I will vote, in a small town firehall
2.  I will get my, I Voted sticker
3.  I will go on with my, life.

[Hatch, guerrilla-poserll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

this is a tricky number 1. % of eligible voters that will vote... I guess it’s barely over 50% usually (about 140 million in 2016)
lot of times percent of Voting Age population is used...so lets make sure we are talking the same number.

the eligible voter turnout rate
2008: Barack Obama v John McCain (61.65%)
2016: Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton (60.1%)

Vs

Election -   VAP        -          Turnout   -   % Turnout of VAP
2008 -   229,945,000   131,407,000   57.1%
2016   -       250,056,000   138,847,000   55.5%

so if we have 150 million voting in total... That would mean an eligible voter turnout rate of more than 62%.

So 65% is ballsy, but not crazy...my be is going to come in close to that...I'll add a percentage point in there so we don't tie on that

I almost think we should just go for total # of votes cast (3rd party too)

[hutch]

Ok that’s good


Let’s just do turnout number although if you do a percent we are talking turnout as sweets did

We just crossed 75 million votes


Not unreasonable to think when early voting is done we will be at 90 million

For 2016 I believe there were about 43 million votes cast early

[hutch]

I predict:

1.  I will vote, in a small town firehall
2.  I will get my, I Voted sticker
3.  I will go on with my, life.

Really going out on a limb!!!

[hutch]

Oh yah whoever is declared Nostradamus will “win” a package full of records and a $20 IMP gift card that I think is sitting in my car...unless it’s Space who will win a package of cassettes


Assuming we get at least ten boardie predictions otherwise all bets are off!!

[Space Freely]

I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.

[rich_WDC]

I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.

Does Supreme Court then need to split the package of records and 20$ giftcard?

[Hatch, guerrilla-poserll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.

Does Supreme Court then need to split the package of records and 20$ giftcard?

I think they get to split it 6-3

[hutch]

Can’t take Roberts for granted...

[Hatch, guerrilla-poserll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Elaine Chao is Anonymous.

nope...Sidehatch is Anonymous, get it straight!

BTW in real life I go by Miles

I will say his interview on the podcast The New Abnormal was awesome ...they knew he was anonymous then

[Hatch, guerrilla-poserll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Can’t take Roberts for granted...

He seems like a cassette guy though?
He probably still has his hootie and the blowfish cd in the CD player