930 Forums
=> GENERAL DISCUSSION => Topic started by: hutch on October 28, 2020, 02:44:55 pm
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Post any predictions here by Monday night...
I think the following are interesting... they are what I am thinking about these last few days
1. % of eligible voters that will vote... I guess it’s barely over 50% usually (about 140 million in 2016)
2. Do democrats flip Senate?
3. Popular vote percentages for Biden and Trump
4. Electoral college split out of 538 total with 270 needed for win
5. Will we have a clear result Tuesday that Trump accepts win or lose?
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Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
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Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
nope...Sidehatch is Anonymous, get it straight!
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imma callin' a blue wave:
1. 65% - yeah, you heard me.
2. yes
3. Biden 52%, trump 45%
4. Biden 335, Trump 203
5. doesn't matter whether the result is clear or not: trump won't accept his loss on tuesday or any other day. but answering the question: late tuesday (actually wednesday morning), reputable news outlets will project a biden win but will not be able to confirm it.
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I predict:
1. I will vote, in a small town firehall
2. I will get my, I Voted sticker
3. I will go on with my, life.
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this is a tricky number 1. % of eligible voters that will vote... I guess it’s barely over 50% usually (about 140 million in 2016)
lot of times percent of Voting Age population is used...so lets make sure we are talking the same number.
the eligible voter turnout rate
2008: Barack Obama v John McCain (61.65%)
2016: Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton (60.1%)
Vs
Election - VAP - Turnout - % Turnout of VAP
2008 - 229,945,000 131,407,000 57.1%
2016 - 250,056,000 138,847,000 55.5%
so if we have 150 million voting in total... That would mean an eligible voter turnout rate of more than 62%.
So 65% is ballsy, but not crazy...my be is going to come in close to that...I'll add a percentage point in there so we don't tie on that
I almost think we should just go for total # of votes cast (3rd party too)
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Ok that’s good
Let’s just do turnout number although if you do a percent we are talking turnout as sweets did
We just crossed 75 million votes
Not unreasonable to think when early voting is done we will be at 90 million
For 2016 I believe there were about 43 million votes cast early
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I predict:
1. I will vote, in a small town firehall
2. I will get my, I Voted sticker
3. I will go on with my, life.
Really going out on a limb!!!
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Oh yah whoever is declared Nostradamus will “win” a package full of records and a $20 IMP gift card that I think is sitting in my car...unless it’s Space who will win a package of cassettes
Assuming we get at least ten boardie predictions otherwise all bets are off!!
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I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.
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I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.
Does Supreme Court then need to split the package of records and 20$ giftcard?
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I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.
Does Supreme Court then need to split the package of records and 20$ giftcard?
I think they get to split it 6-3
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Can’t take Roberts for granted...
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Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
nope...Sidehatch is Anonymous, get it straight!
BTW in real life I go by Miles
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3o72EVymX8u70s22mQ/giphy.gif)
I will say his interview on the podcast The New Abnormal was awesome ...they knew he was anonymous then
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Can’t take Roberts for granted...
He seems like a cassette guy though?
He probably still has his hootie and the blowfish cd in the CD player
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I predict the Supreme Court helps Trump steal it.
Does Supreme Court then need to split the package of records and 20$ giftcard?
I think they get to split it 6-3
PPOTW!!!
(political post of the week)
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Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
Nope
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/anonymous-new-york-times-oped-writer/index.html
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Elaine Chao is Anonymous.
Nope
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/anonymous-new-york-times-oped-writer/index.html
um...stale news since I detailed this just a few posts ago
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Sorry I guess I just look past your posts...
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Sorry I guess I just look past your posts...
That seems to be a common trend
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I was pondering yesterday morning doing one of those "I'm old enough to remember when some wrote a Anonymous Op-Eds and loyalty statements were demanded" tweets and decided it wasn't that funny... and the dude outs himself later :) send an SASE to get my newsletter...
and are we still boycotting canned beans?
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I was pondering yesterday morning doing one of those "I'm old enough to remember when some wrote a Anonymous Op-Eds and loyalty statements were demanded" tweets and decided it wasn't that funny... and the dude outs himself later :) send an SASE to get my newsletter...
and are we still boycotting canned beans?
I've been doing the Giant brand, but i really prefer Goya because they have pull off tops. Those hand held can openers are tough for us left-handers...I use them right handed and always break them prematurely.
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for those wanting more analysis and prognostication before submitting their entry: The 3 most likely paths to victory for Biden and Trump, in maps (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/29/3-most-likely-paths-victory-biden-trump-maps/)
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This is hard
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This is hard
very.
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Biden 321-217
Biden: MI, WI, MN, PA, NC, GA, AZ, NV, NE2
Trump: TX, OH, IA, FL, ME2
Senate: Dem 51, GOP 48 (The Loeffler/Warnock race to a runoff)
House: Dems add 12 to their margin
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truth.. Loeffler/Warnock race to a runoff
He's made up a lot of ground, wish he could just get 50%, but likely not going to happen
if they could just convince some of the 21 other candidates (at least the liberal ones) to drop out
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truth.. Loeffler/Warnock race to a runoff
He's made up a lot of ground, wish he could just get 50%, but likely not going to happen
if they could just convince some of the 21 other candidates (at least the liberal ones) to drop out
To be fair, Lieberman and whatever the other dude are at + Warnock =/= 50%.
I do think Ossoff is going to knock of Perdue tomorrow - no run-off needed.
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I do think Ossoff is going to knock of Perdue tomorrow - no run-off needed.
yeah, he's going to take it
They have been killing him on that debate performance and him canceling the next one.
Oh and Aliva has a bone to pick with Liberman
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/matt-lieberman-bad-english-teacher-bad-candidate.html
I'm a little shocked that Doug Collins didn't have an accident or a leak of some lewd photos
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truth.. Loeffler/Warnock race to a runoff
He's made up a lot of ground, wish he could just get 50%, but likely not going to happen
if they could just convince some of the 21 other candidates (at least the liberal ones) to drop out
To be fair, Lieberman and whatever the other dude are at + Warnock =/= 50%.
I do think Ossoff is going to knock of Perdue tomorrow - no run-off needed.
Ossoff would be the youngest elected senator since.....Joe Biden.
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I'm rooting for the Puerto Ricans and the Felons down in FL to put us over the edge!!
Through Sunday evening, 8.974 million ballots had been cast early and by mail in Florida,.... 9.5 million votes cast in the 2016 presidential election.
Of those votes, 39% were cast by Democrats, 38% by Republicans, and 21.5% by independent voters unaffiliated with either party. The remainder were cast by voters affiliated with minor political parties.
So far, 66.2% of all registered Florida Democrats have voted, as well as 65.8% of registered Republicans and 51.5% of no-party-affiliated voters.
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The Latino vote margins not being where they need to be is why I have FL once again being the football the Democrats kick at and go fully Charlie Brown.
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I suspect a mole amongst us https://twitter.com/JuliansRum
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I suspect a mole amongst us https://twitter.com/JuliansRum
Considering Trailer Park Boys are from Canada, wouldn't that be illegals voting in our election?
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Early voting in Arizona just surpassed its entire vote count from 2016.
the fourth state to do so this election.
Arizona
• 2016: 2,661,497
• 2020: 2,667,535
Nevada
• 2016: 1,125,429
• 2020: 1,125,580
Hawaii
• 2016: 437,664
• 2020: 484,000
Texas
• 2016: 8,969,226
• 2020: 9,719,101
Eminem gives the Biden team 'lose yourself' for an ad
https://twitter.com/Eminem/status/1323304002285654016
Also, someone got trump to sing the whole Bohemian Rhapsody
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1323380460739796999
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https://twitter.com/volzie/status/1323052301720920065?s=21
30k felons have already cast their votes in FL!
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Geez not a lot of people even willing to play...
Turnout: 160 million
Senate: D take control (likely 50-50 in the end as I doubt democrats ultimately win either seat in GA)
Trump accept results etc: No
Popular vote: Biden 53% - Trump 45%
Electoral college: Biden 351 - Trump 187
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1. % of eligible voters that will vote... 65%
2. Do democrats flip Senate? Nope
3. Popular vote percentages for Biden and Trump 53/47
4. Electoral college split out of 538 total with 270 needed for win 288/250 Biden. Tho I'm increasingly worried Trump will win.
5. Will we have a clear result Tuesday that Trump accepts win or lose? Nope
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Geez not a lot of people even willing to play...
Turnout: 160 million
Senate: D take control (likely 50-50 in the end as I doubt democrats ultimately win either seat in GA)
Trump accept results etc: No
Popular vote: Biden 53% - Trump 45%
Electoral college: Biden 351 - Trump 187
1. % of eligible voters that will vote... I guess it’s barely over 50% usually (about 140 million in 2016) 155M - whatever that equates to in %
2. Do democrats flip Senate? Yes
3. Popular vote percentages for Biden and Trump Biden 51, Trump 47.5%
4. Electoral college split out of 538 total with 270 needed for win Biden 285, Trump 253
5. Will we have a clear result Tuesday that Trump accepts win or lose? No
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1. % of eligible voters that will vote... 167,000,000 (Highest ever by a big margin)
2. Do democrats flip Senate? Yes 52/47 with runoff in GA
3. Popular vote percentages: Biden 54.5, Trump 44.5%
4. Electoral college split Biden 321 Trump 217
5. Will we have a clear result Tuesday that Trump accepts win or lose? No (but we should Wed)
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I am not interested in the prize, but will predict a 294 to 244 Biden Electoral College victory.
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Well there won’t be a prize if we don’t get three more predictions
Or there will be
But am glad to see you got Biden
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What about the other contest, the one where you pick the winner of the states you selected. Is that still on?
I don't even remember what the thread was called.
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Oh yeah it’s ON
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Oh yeah it’s ON
Like donkey Kong.... but somebody find the thread
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1. % of eligible voters that will vote... 65%
What was I thinking?
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So it was 55% in 2016
65% seems like a decent guess, right?
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65% seems like a decent guess, right?
We might blow right by that, honestly.
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Hope we do. Won’t be surprised if we don’t.
Americans seem to disappoint pretty regularly.
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So it was 55% in 2016
65% seems like a decent guess, right?
the eligible voter turnout rate
2016: Donald Trump v Hillary Clinton (60.1%)
What numbers are you using?
Are you going with voting age population... as that is flawed
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Come on dude give it a rest
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
Turnout 55.7%
I don’t want to get into a debate about this
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I don’t want to get into a debate about this
Who do you think you are... Perdue?
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Americans seem to disappoint pretty regularly.
I'm not sure what's the number for 'non-counted' at this point
but seeing 135 million counted...sounding like it's going to be a shitty turnout :(
Was it suppression or lack of enthusiasm?
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The running total is at 138.5 Mill on some news sites
but then I found thing
The voting-eligible population in the U.S. ahead of the November 3 election was just over 239 million people, according to the U.S. Elections Project, with 160 million people having voted, making 2020 turnout a predicted 66.9 percent.
Election 2020 Voter Turnout 'at 67 Percent', Highest in 120 Years (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/election-2020-voter-turnout-at-67-percent-highest-in-120-years/ar-BB1aGfxx?ocid=uxbndlbing)
I've not been able to find other sources for this 160 #
(they used the VEP # too.)
Hutch may have the # right
Turnout: 160 million
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I read this morning that there are 23 million votes still to be counted
We just have to wait and count votes
What matters is Biden is going to most likely win once all votes are counted
If one guy doesn’t want votes counted kind of tells you all you need to know
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Biden 321-217
Biden: MI, WI, MN, PA, NC, GA, AZ, NV, NE2
Trump: TX, OH, IA, FL, ME2
Other than Charlotte/Raleigh/Asheville's valiant efforts to flip NC falling short, this is shaping up correct.
I did not see the absolute bloodbath in the House and state delegation races coming though -- an issue we as Dems need to discuss in a week or two when Presidential madness dies down.
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I am all ears as to who should be proclaimed the winner...
My own view is predicting the electoral college breakdown is the ultimate test..whoever came closest has a strong argument
We don’t know final breakdown yet but 306-232 seems likeliest..
I am all ears.. but if that is split seems like Smackie might be winner but prize defaults to Julian/Sidehatch as Smackie doesn’t like vinyl?
So once dust settles let me know
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ack...didn't see that you already declared him the winner
Tied for second makes me feel good after my FL prediction
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I will concede any claim I have to victory because Smackie winning physical media is the greatest collective victory we call can have.
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ack...didn't see that you already declared him the winner
Tied for second makes me feel good after my FL prediction
I am not declaring anyone the winner
Just look at the entries once the dust settles and you guys tell me
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Turnout: 160 million
Looks like you might take this one...numbers are looking like 158~mil
Not sure what that is percentage-wise as a lot of people put %
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Guessing turnout was always the least important guess
I guess it’s a consolation
Still need NC and AZ to finish...also Tillis v Cunningham
I predicted 50-50... that’s not happening
Gideon was such a huge bummer! I still can’t believe it...she led every single poll!
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Gideon was such a huge bummer! I still can’t believe it...she led every single poll!
This is super annoying. Dems left a legit run at the Senate on the floor between not being able to close on NC and ME. Oh well.
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Wtf North Carolina you ever going to count your votes?!?!
Arizona counts 10 votes a day
Alaska is hibernating or something
The lack of give a shit is a bit disturbing
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Wtf North Carolina you ever going to count your votes?!?!
This is very in line with their state laws. Mailins can continue to come in for (if I am not mistaken) 10 days there and all that come in between election day and that ten day cut off + the Provisionals start getting counted after ten days. They are not supposed to be counting anything right now.
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Wtf North Carolina you ever going to count your votes?!?!
just saw this
Spiro Agnew’s Ghost@SpiroAgnewGhost
Btw do not forget...that if Biden wins the mail in ballots in NC by 65/35% as he has in many other key states, he will also pull off a squeaker of a win in NC. Probably a 25% chance and why they won’t call the state. They start counting in 2 days there due to antiquated rules.
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Wtf North Carolina you ever going to count your votes?!?!
just saw this
Spiro Agnew’s Ghost@SpiroAgnewGhost
Btw do not forget...that if Biden wins the mail in ballots in NC by 65/35% as he has in many other key states, he will also pull off a squeaker of a win in NC. Probably a 25% chance and why they won’t call the state. They start counting in 2 days there due to antiquated rules.
If this were to happen, I would move from 55 of 56 on Electoral calls to a perfect 56 of 56.
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Wtf North Carolina you ever going to count your votes?!?!
just saw this
Spiro Agnew’s Ghost@SpiroAgnewGhost
Btw do not forget...that if Biden wins the mail in ballots in NC by 65/35% as he has in many other key states, he will also pull off a squeaker of a win in NC. Probably a 25% chance and why they won’t call the state. They start counting in 2 days there due to antiquated rules.
If this were to happen, I would move from 55 of 56 on Electoral calls to a perfect 56 of 56.
I would very much like for this to happen; it will fully and finalllt and truly be Julian's America.
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1. 65% - yeah, you heard me.
so again...we didn't really figure this out...as you (stone the crow..and kinda hutch too) might be the winner on the % but hutch is going to take the actual vote count
The voting-eligible population in the U.S. ahead of the November 3 election was just over 239 million people, according to the U.S. Elections Project, with 160 million people having voted, making 2020 turnout a predicted 66.9 percent.
5. doesn't matter whether the result is clear or not: trump won't accept his loss on tuesday or any other day.
but answering the question: late tuesday (actually wednesday morning), reputable news outlets will project a biden win but will not be able to confirm it.
you were right on the first part, not the second
Did anyone say Saturday?
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I am all ears as to who should be proclaimed the winner...
My own view is predicting the electoral college breakdown is the ultimate test..whoever came closest has a strong argument
We don’t know final breakdown yet but 306-232 seems likeliest..
I am all ears.. but if that is split seems like Smackie might be winner but prize defaults to Julian/Sidehatch as Smackie doesn’t like vinyl?
So once dust settles let me know
Well to my chagrin Smackie wins! (294-244 edges out 321-217 as final was 306-232)
Prize defaults to Julian and Sidehatch ties for next closest to electoral vote split
I will ready your record packs and get them out within a couple of weeks ..gift cards will have to wait until IMP opens up so I can exchange my FWB points for gift cards
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Well to my chagrin Smackie wins! (294-244 edges out 321-217 as final was 306-232)
Prize defaults to Julian and Sidehatch ties for next closest to electoral vote split
I will ready your record packs and get them out within a couple of weeks ..gift cards will have to wait until IMP opens up so I can exchange my FWB points for gift cards
I don't want to speak for Sidehatch but I really think Smackie has fairly earned his physical media and renounce any claims to the prize. I will be delighted to help you with his mailing address so he can get the prize he so richly deserves as recompense for his giant electoral brain.
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I can’t send records to someone who will throw them in a dumpster!
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I can’t send records to someone who will throw them in a dumpster!
He would never. And that's why I'm so insistent he get them.
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I tell you what...I will send them to you and you can send them to him? Media mail will run about $4
I just don’t think he wants me to have his address...
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I tell you what...I will send them to you and you can send them to him? Media mail will run about $4
I just don’t think he wants me to have his address...
Perfect. I will be delighted to assist in this fine endeavor.