Originally posted by vansmack:
Only Russia would start a war on the opening day of the Olympics, when no one else is watching.
Alright, so what do you need to need to know about Russia and Georgia to entertain at a cocktail party?
First, don??t be that guest at a cocktail party. Second, Georgia??s President Mikheil Saakashvili was monumentally stupid for doing what he did, but we??ll get to that.
So Georgia and Russia haven??t liked each other for nearly 100 years, probably more, but it??s an interesting dislike as prominent Russian leaders have come from Georgia. All the experts would have predicted that the initial flare up between the two would have happened in a different separatist province of Georgia known as Abkhazia. Abkhazia was originally a Soviet Republic under the Bolsheviks, but Stalin was Georgian and upon taking power he gave Abkhazia to Georgia in the early 30??s. They??ve been bickering ever since.
Abkhazia composes about half of the Georgian coastline on the Red Sea and is very important to Georgia. It??s also very strategic for Russia ?? Georgia is the last remaining western-friendly (at the moment) country on the Black Sea (the status of Turkey being currently in flux) ?? a main East-West route for oil and gas pipelines.
<img src="http://www.maria.trombly.com/articles/abkhazia.jpg" alt=" - " />
So what the hell does South Ossetia have to do with anything? Ossetia, like Abkhazia, has never really felt part of Georgia. They speak their own language, used to be independent, and were only added to the Georgian Republic arbitrarily (and reluctantly) in the early 20??s as the Soviet Union was being ??built.? Upon the demise of the Union, tensions started immediately and have gone on to this day. Russia currently arms the separatists and props up their economy via the black market, much to the chagrin of the Georgians.
So why now? This is where Saakashvili was incredibly stupid. Georgia has been trying to join the EU and NATO for quite some time. This is perceived as disastrous by Russia, who tried to get a pro-Russia candidate elected back in May. After Saakashvili was re-elected, it signaled trouble for Russia??s hopes of oil and gas dominance of Europe. If the west can bypass Russia??s dominance of the Caspian Sea by going through Georgia, it negates Russia??s bargaining power. After failed negotiations, NATO and the EU agreed to discuss joining the union in December ?? a timetable that was apparently too late for Saakashvili.
Russia has had tanks on both the border along Abkhazia and Ossetia for some time, waiting for a moment to move in, and Saakashvili provided them that moment. He began to shell Ossetia as the Olympics began ?? perhaps at a moment when Western Leaders were with Putin or at a time when the rest of the world is focused on relations. Russia immediately responded in both Ossetia and Abkhazia, and then went on to attempt to embarrass Saakashvili amongst his constituents by pummeling him elsewhere in Georgia.
So what can the west do? Nothing other than help negotiate peace. With no official diplomatic ties to Georgia, NATO can??t help them and the EU won??t help them. Georgia??s location provides them with no clear EU neighbors and virtually no military presence to help them. Russia (cleverly, I might add) has cited Kosovo as justification for doing what they??re doing in Ossetia (never mind the fact that Russia has failed recognize Kosovo as an independent nation) - of course this paints them into a box if Ossetia continues their desire to secede from Georgia just about forcing them to recognize Kosovo??s independence. Russia would surely block any move by the UN to come to the aid of Georgia, so you can count them out leaving Georgia virtually on their own (and totally overmatched).
So where does that leave us? As long as Russia does not continue into Georgia further than Ossetia, we??re probably right where we started in August with an embarrassed Saakashvili and nervous other Caucus countries who now fear Russia??s military power (and clear imperialist ambitions). Russia probably gains a tremendous amount of influence over Abkhazia and Ossetia and there is no way Georgia will be allowed to join the EU or NATO anytime soon for fear of provoking Russia. If Russia does continue to Tbilisi (the capital of Georgia), we??re facing a nervous Europe who may have to reluctantly go to war with Russia.
Either way, the west is pretty unhappy with both Saakashvili and Putin/Medveydev and the stability of the region might be at its worst since the wall fall. Good times.
