Be wary of early polls suggesting McCain and Obama are looking at big victories in New Hampshire. New Hampshire allows independents to vote in either the Republican Primary or the Democratic Primary, but, obviously, not both. So when a poll shows a large lead for either candiate, consider the question and how many independents were surveyed. If the question asked an independent voter who she would choose between Clinton and Obama, the majority of independents would choose Obama. A similar question regarding the Republican candidates would yield the same result for McCain. But what would an independent voter do when faced with a question regarding Obama or McCain?
And that's what I'm excited to see tomorrow. If either candidate does exceptionally well tomorrow, that could mean huge gains for either Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton. If they split the independent vote, will that be enough for them to put the other candidates at a huge disadvantage? We shall see.
For the record, an Independent in the Union's largest state, California, is only allowed to vote in the Democratic Primay. This will be a HUGE boost for Barack Obama.
