Author Topic: DC Area Voters  (Read 148146 times)

miss pretentious

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #150 on: February 12, 2008, 06:44:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by Julian, good manners AFICIONADO:
   
Quote
Originally posted by ggw?:
  Julian labored countless hours to get that bachelors from the University of Phoenix
Our football stadium is better then your school's football stadium!
 
 (Now if only we had a campus. And a football team.) [/b]
You'll always have Pink Taco Stadium...
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vansmack

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #151 on: February 12, 2008, 07:11:00 pm »
There's really flashes of brilliance and then moments of utter idiocracy in this thread.
 
 What everybody is forgetting is that this nation still has, as Mankie likes to point out, an electoral college system.  Every poll about the electability of one nominee vs. another is utter crap because they are all based on popular vote, and we know that means...absolutely nothing.  
 
 Add to that the fact that none of the candidates have had to go up against a nominee from another party, so on what grounds are we taking polls?  Would anyone like to point out the poll numbers from this past summer in the primaries and how off base they were when actually determining the nominee? (well, I guess I just did)  So everybody relax....  
 
 So, all you so-called experts, kindly take a look at the Electoral College Map of 2000 and tell me which state the Dems won in 2000 that you expect a Democratic Candidate to lose in 2008?
 
 The Republicans are much more worried about several states they won in 2000 that either Obama or Clinton can easily win in 2008.
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Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #152 on: February 12, 2008, 07:17:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by vansmack:
 
 So, all you so-called experts, kindly take a look at the Electoral College Map of 2000 and tell me which state the Dems won in 2000 that you expect a Democratic Candidate to lose in 2008?
Blue states that could conceivably go red: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Jersey.
 
 Red states that could conceivably go blue: Florida (if Clinton's the nominee), Ohio, New Hampshire, Missou, Arkansas (if Clinton's the nominee).

vansmack

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #153 on: February 12, 2008, 07:38:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by Julian, good manners AFICIONADO:
  Blue states that could conceivably go red: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Jersey.
 
 
I'll give you New Mexico is a small possibility (immigration will be huge!), but it is a huge stretch to think that the others are in any real sense of danger:
 
 Iowa: Ethanol Subsidies.  No way McCain back tracks on that and gets the State to believe him.  He finished 4th in Iowa, behind Fred Thompson!
 
 Michigan: The Dems have a lot of making up to do here, but McCain is absolutely no friend of labor.  When he said that the jobs in the auto industry were gone and weren't coming back, he was right.  But he also wrote off Michigan in November.
 
 New Jersey: Seriously.  1.1 Million Dems showed up for the primary.  560K for the Republican primary - and McCain was the favorite.  Anything short of Christine Todd Whitman as his running mate and McCain fails miserably in Joyzee.
 
 Pennsylvania:  Interesting one here.  Until the Primary, I can't say with utter confidence that this one is no longer up for grabs, but the trend in PA has been to the Dems for the past 4 years and I see no reason why John McCain would change this, especially running against either charismatic Dem.  I'd like to come back to this one after April 22 however.
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ggw

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #154 on: February 12, 2008, 07:44:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by Julian, good manners AFICIONADO:
  Jersey.
 
Ha ha ha ha.....
 
 
 February 10, 2008
 Ideas & Trends
 Hey, Massachusetts, New Jersey Is Passing on the Left
 By JEREMY W. PETERS
 
 NEW JERSEY??S political hue is not just blue these days. It??s cobalt.
 
 In the last two months, the state has become the first in a generation to abolish the death penalty, the first north of the Mason-Dixon line to apologize for slavery and the second, after Maryland, to pledge its Electoral College votes to the winner of the national popular vote.
 
 A family-leave measure to give employees paid time off to care for a newborn or sick relative appears headed toward approval by the State Legislature. A state commission is urging lawmakers to raise the minimum wage to $8.25 an hour, which would be the highest in the nation.
 
 And voters recently approved borrowing an additional $200 million to save open space in the nation??s most densely populated state ?? the latest in more than $1.5 billion in borrowing to protect farmland and open space since 1981.
 
 It may not be a surprise that New Jersey, which ranks among the states spending the most on education per student and is one of only four states to recognize gay civil unions, is pursuing a course that analysts say is in keeping with the Progressive Era ideals espoused by its former governor, Woodrow Wilson. He described his state as ??a sort of laboratory in which the best blood is prepared for other communities to thrive on.?
 
 But public policy experts say what is a surprise is how swiftly New Jersey ?? better known for its seemingly endemic corruption and reputation as a onetime welcome mat for industrial waste ?? has moved in this direction.
 
 ??They??re a new leader,? said Joel Rogers, a professor at the University of Wisconsin Law School and the director of the Center for State Innovation, which describes itself as a progressive public-policy research institute.
 
 ??It??s not just California anymore, it??s New Jersey,? Mr. Rogers said. A New Jersey native, he added, with a touch of hyperbole, ??The much-maligned New Jersey, that malarial swamp south of New York, is rising from the ashes as a leader of progressive government.?
 
 Not everybody sees the state??s tilt as a badge of honor. ??I think it??s way out of the mainstream, way farther left than most people want to be,? said Joseph Pennacchio, a Republican state senator from Morris County, a Republican bastion.
 
 The liberal legacy in New Jersey won??t be abolishing the death penalty and apologizing for slavery, he said. It will be high taxes and deep deficits. ??What we??re not doing is talking about reducing property taxes or reducing the flight of people from New Jersey,? he said.
 
 Why the rush of legislation? And why now?
 
 The underlying reason, political scientists and public policy experts said, is that Democrats in Trenton, the capital, have occupied the Holy Trinity of state government since 2004: both chambers of the Legislature and the governor??s office. Their advantage is now considerable ?? 48-32 in the General Assembly and 23-17 in the State Senate.
 
 And then there is Gov. Jon S. Corzine. The son of an Illinois farmer, he made a name for himself in the United States Senate as one of its most liberal members. He once lambasted the centrist Democratic Leadership Council for practicing ??timid progressivism.?
 
 Joel Barkin, the executive director of the Progressive States Network, said, ??They are in a political environment that is not going to put up a lot of opposition to these areas of reform.?
 
 New Jersey lawmakers have managed to enact measures that have failed in California and Massachusetts, for instance, states with their own distinctively dark-blue hues.
 
 California enacted the nation??s first paid family leave law in 2000, but a bill that would have placed a moratorium on executions stalled. Massachusetts and California both have an $8-an-hour minimum wage, the nation??s second highest, behind Washington State. A paid family leave bill in Massachusetts stalled in the face of opposition from the business lobby. Both failed to pass a law to award their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote in presidential races.
 
 Then again, they have had bigger hurdles to overcome. In California, the Democratic-controlled Legislature has to contend with a Republican governor. While both houses are solidly Democratic in Massachusetts, the governor ?? the first Democrat in 16 years ?? has been in office only a year.
 
 Another factor that may explain why New Jersey has been so active lately is that its Legislature was in a lame duck when it approved these recent measures. Legislators who were retiring ?? more than one-third of the General Assembly and two-fifths of the Senate ?? didn??t have to worry about constituent reaction.
 
 Will lawmakers who do have to worry about re-election continue down the path of their one-time colleagues? The answer awaits.
 
 But academics who study New Jersey say its increasingly leftward lean also reflects the political evolution of the state??s 8.7 million residents.
 
 Cliff Zukin, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, said polling data suggested that the influx of immigrants in the last decade ?? 20 percent of the state??s residents are now foreign born ?? has made New Jersey residents more socially tolerant. ??A lot of people just mouth arguments for diversity and say, ??It??s good. It??s good,?? ? he said. ??But people really see here that the quality of life is better because of it.?
 
 Joseph Marbach, acting dean of the College of Arts and Sciences at Seton Hall University, said New Jersey was also skewing left because it is wealthier and better educated than it was a decade ago. ??Those are the demographics that tend to lean more liberal,? he said.
 
 Of course, there are those who say that the state has betrayed liberal ideals. Mr. Corzine??s new school funding plan, approved by the Legislature last month, was criticized by some school advocates as giving short shrift to inner-city schools.
 
 And some liberal activists said they an odd symmetry in New Jersey??s recent progressive streak, pointing out that if it weren??t for poor regulation in the past, especially on environmental issues, it wouldn??t need such an activist approach.
 
 ??We??re the yin and the yang,? said Jeffrey Tittle, director of the New Jersey Sierra Club. ??We have the strongest laws and the biggest problems.?

vansmack

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #155 on: February 12, 2008, 07:54:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by Julian, good manners AFICIONADO:
  Red states that could conceivably go blue: Florida (if Clinton's the nominee), Ohio, New Hampshire, Missou, Arkansas (if Clinton's the nominee).
I think your list is a little short here, but as you've correctly stated, it does depend on who the nominee is.  As since since your clearly in the Clinton camp, I'm not that surprised.
 
 Ohio is definitely up for either Dem.  I don't think New Hampshire is up for the Dems. They voted for GWB and they didn't really like him - the LOVE McCain.  He's practically the President of New Hampshire.  Either way it's 4 Electoral votes...
 
 An Obama nomination opens up the South (save for Florida and Arkansas, where only a Clinton has a real chance).  I'm not saying he wins, but a McCain campaign in the South is no sure thing for the Republicans, and Obama forces them to spend a lot more money in the south then they will want to spend - especially if/when the Dems out raise the Republican candidate.  All of this hinges on the Republican VP nominee as well.
 
 Obama gives the Dems a real shot at Colorado and Missouri, and maybe even Kansas.  If that happens, it could spread right into the Dakotas as well.
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sweetcell

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #156 on: February 12, 2008, 08:13:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by Charlie Nakatestes,Japanese Golfer:
  That's all nice and shit, but how is McCain going to convince Americans that we need to keep fighting in Iraq for the next 100 years? They can deride Obama's inexperience all they want, but how in the fuck are they going to turn public opinion on Iraq back in their favor?
by calling the Dems the party of "cut and run"!!!  
 
 worked last time.  no explanation or even thinking needed.  just brandish "C'n'R" and you're good to go.  FOUR MORE YEARS!  FOUR MORE YEARS!!!
<sig>

lbcardoni

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #157 on: February 13, 2008, 09:37:00 am »
Quote
Originally posted by vansmack:
  There's really flashes of brilliance and then moments of utter idiocracy in this thread.
 
 What everybody is forgetting is that this nation still has, as Mankie likes to point out, an electoral college system.  Every poll about the electability of one nominee vs. another is utter crap because they are all based on popular vote, and we know that means...absolutely nothing.  
 
 
WINNER!

Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #158 on: February 13, 2008, 10:29:00 am »
Regarding Julian's comments that the RNC will rip Obama to shreds....
 
 I think that if the RNC goes negative on Obama, it will backfire. Obama brings such an aura of positivity, that the American people will reject the RNC negativity.
 
 If the RNC goes negative on Hillary, I think the American people are much more willing to accept that.

TimCooke

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #159 on: February 13, 2008, 01:02:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by sweetcell:
   
Quote
Originally posted by Charlie Nakatestes,Japanese Golfer:
  That's all nice and shit, but how is McCain going to convince Americans that we need to keep fighting in Iraq for the next 100 years? They can deride Obama's inexperience all they want, but how in the fuck are they going to turn public opinion on Iraq back in their favor?
by calling the Dems the party of "cut and run"!!!  
 
 worked last time.  no explanation or even thinking needed.  just brandish "C'n'R" and you're good to go.  FOUR MORE YEARS!  FOUR MORE YEARS!!! [/b]
I'm so sick of people saying that McCain has claimed we'll be FIGHTING in Iraq for the next 100 years.  He said we will BE IN Iraq for the next 100 years, much like we are in Germany, Korea, Japan, etc.  I don't hear all you people screaming to bring our troops home from Okinawa or Ramstein.
 
 It's going to be McCain/Lieberman.  Everyone knows that for the general election, candidates run to the center.  What would be more popular than a moderate Republican running with a conservative democrat?  That's a dream ticket.

vansmack

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #160 on: February 13, 2008, 01:05:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by CookieMonster:
  It's going to be McCain/Lieberman.  Everyone knows that for the general election, candidates run to the center.  
The GOP would NEVER let that happen.
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TimCooke

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #161 on: February 13, 2008, 01:20:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by vansmack:
   
Quote
Originally posted by CookieMonster:
  It's going to be McCain/Lieberman.  Everyone knows that for the general election, candidates run to the center.  
The GOP would NEVER let that happen. [/b]
Maybe...maybe not.  Once McCain has the nomination sealed up (aside...Huckabee needs to bail now), he can choose who he wants. McCain/Lieberman would be unstoppable...show that he truly reaches across party lines...and would win perhaps 75% of the independent vote.
 
 Maybe I'm living in dreamland, but that would be ideal!

Brian_Wallace

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #162 on: February 13, 2008, 01:32:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by CookieMonster:
   
Quote
Originally posted by vansmack:
   
Quote
Originally posted by CookieMonster:
  It's going to be McCain/Lieberman.  Everyone knows that for the general election, candidates run to the center.  
The GOP would NEVER let that happen. [/b]
Maybe...maybe not.  Once McCain has the nomination sealed up (aside...Huckabee needs to bail now), he can choose who he wants. McCain/Lieberman would be unstoppable...show that he truly reaches across party lines...and would win perhaps 75% of the independent vote.
 
 Maybe I'm living in dreamland, but that would be ideal! [/b]
Yeah, but picking Lieberman would be the final straw for the Limbaugh/Coulter Super Conservative set.  He may need at least some of them in the general.  If McCain's going to raise his middle finger to the Limbaugh cabal and pick a strong Jewish veep I wish he'd pick Bloomberg.  If the economy's issue #1 come November (which it might be) Bloomberg would be unstoppable when it comes to voting for a ticket where the economy will be "fixed."  And McCain has admitted that the economy isn't his strong suit.
 
 Brian

Frank Gallagher

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #163 on: February 13, 2008, 01:41:00 pm »
McCain....yet another doddering old fucker. Did you not learn anything from the Reagan years, apart from lets bury the country in debt almost as much as a Bush would, while insisting everything is great. Then name every fucking bridge, building and aiport after the twat. McCain Dulles Airport has quite a ring to it don't you think?
 
 How about Clinton McCain on the ticket!!!

vansmack

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Re: DC Area Voters
« Reply #164 on: February 13, 2008, 01:43:00 pm »
Quote
Originally posted by CookieMonster:
  Maybe...maybe not.  Once McCain has the nomination sealed up (aside...Huckabee needs to bail now), he can choose who he wants. McCain/Lieberman would be unstoppable...show that he truly reaches across party lines...and would win perhaps 75% of the independent vote.
 
 Maybe I'm living in dreamland, but that would be ideal!
I will be shocked if McCain doesn't do one of two things with his choice of running mate:
 
 (1) Cater to the Christian Right and pick an evangelical favorite - there are plenty of Southern Governors on that list (the second option here to please the evangelicals is to promise them judges)
 
 (2) Make a strategic choice based on the Democratic nominee. For example, choosing a woman like Olympia Snowe if it's Hillary.
 
 What should he do?
 
 He should choose a Governor to end the argument about the lack of Executive leadership and he should choose someone from a swing part of the country to not upset those that chose his moderate stance.  If I were McCain, I would choose Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and make the upper midwest very competitive.
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