One thing about Obama...no one I know is going ga-ga over Hillary. People seem to be either die hard Obamaphiles or can't decide (basically want to vote for Hillary but worry about how much hatred people have for her). My parents (who have voted republican in the past), my current bosses, 99% of my friends who are Democrats have Obama fever. So I think he stands a great chance in the general election.
McCain's recent ad is kind of scary...walking with Reagan, American flags, and footage of him as a POW.