From Buster Olney his morning:
One executive joked recently that there is not a more inevitable offseason connection than the Nationals and center fielder Michael Bourn, who is eligible for free agency in the fall. "Can we just put that one in the books now?" he said, noting all the factors in play. They are:
1. The Nationals need a center fielder, and Bourn is a former Gold Glove winner whose performance this year is charting very well. His UZR/150 rating is the best among those at his position, according to FanGraphs.
2. Bourn, 29, is at the peak of his career as a hitter, and his .756 OPS this season is his second-best. Bourn ranks sixth in the majors in runs scored, and of course, all of his damage has been done as a leadoff hitter. Washington's leadoff hitters ranks 19th in OPS this year.
3. And Bourn is represented by Scott Boras -- and there are a whole lot of Nationals represented by Boras, from Stephen Strasburg to Bryce Harper to Jayson Werth to others.
But another rival official noted all the money that the Phillies have freed from their payroll, with the trades of Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton. "You know who they want, right?" the official asked. "They love Michael Bourn."
He was drafted and developed by the Phillies, of course, as a fourth-round pick in 2003, and the Phillies know all about his gregarious personality, and that he has a grinder's mentality. For years, manager Charlie Manuel has tried to settle on a leadoff hitter; sometimes he has used Jimmy Rollins, sometimes Shane Victorino.
If the Phillies make a strong push for Bourn, it's unclear whether they would be willing to outbid the Nationals. Washington opened this season with a payroll of $92 million, and if its wealthy ownership is willing, it has a lot of room to grow under the luxury-tax cap. Bourn figures to get a multiyear deal for something in the range of $16 million to $22 million annually, and as has been well-documented over the last six weeks, the Phillies already have a lot of payroll obligations well into the future, with $20 million-plus commitments to Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard on the books. The Phillies also will have to find a third baseman, a starting pitcher and at least one outfielder, depending on their internal evaluations of Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr.
Josh Hamilton will be the most dynamic free agent outfielder this fall, albeit with a lot of questions about how much he can be counted on. But Bourn might be in the best leverage position of all the outfielders if, in fact, the Nationals and Phillies -- division rivals -- focus on luring him away from another division rival, the Braves.
