The MLB Thread

[vansmack]

Stanton deal keeps getting stranger..

ESPN reporting that the deal is heavily backloaded.  Making $30M over the first three years.  $107M over the first 6 years of the deal.  So, the last 7, when he can opt out, he'll be making $218M.

Zero risk for Stanton.  100% risk for the Marlins.  Best case scenario for the Marlins is one strong playoff run in the next 3-4 years, Stanton stays healthy and then opts out.

[imbecile]

Stanton deal keeps getting stranger..

ESPN reporting that the deal is heavily backloaded.  Making $30M over the first three years.  $107M over the first 6 years of the deal.  So, the last 7, when he can opt out, he'll be making $218M.

Zero risk for Stanton.  100% risk for the Marlins.  Best case scenario for the Marlins is one strong playoff run in the next 3-4 years, Stanton stays healthy and then opts out.

I don't know enough about baseball salary inflation, the likely available free agent sluggers in 6 years, and whatever else would factor into the decision.. But, is it really possible that in 6 years, someone will shell out $31M per year for 7 years for a bat?

Looking at recent-ish numbers, I could see that kind of progression on salaries if we used ARod as our example, but I have to believe he and his salary/contract are outliers.

Nevertheless, good for Giancarlo.

[vansmack]

I don't know enough about baseball salary inflation, the likely available free agent sluggers in 6 years, and whatever else would factor into the decision.. But, is it really possible that in 6 years, someone will shell out $31M per year for 7 years for a bat?

Looking at recent-ish numbers, I could see that kind of progression on salaries if we used ARod as our example, but I have to believe he and his salary/contract are outliers.

Trout and Stanton would both become free agents in 2021.  Stanton will be 31, Trout will be 29.  Trout will have made $33.5m the season leading into his FA year.  We don't know yet what Stanton will make in 2020.

Either way, I don't think it will be unreasonable to think $31m might be market rate, especially with the Pujols and Cabrera deals as the measure.

That free agent chase in 2020 could be something to watch though. 

[vansmack]

A's sign Billy Butler for 3 yrs/$30m.  Has Beane officially lost it?

[vansmack]

Stanton's Contract Details

YEAR AGE SALARY
2015   25   $6,500,000   
2016   26   $9,000,000      
2017   27   $14,500,000      
2018   28   $25,000,000      
2019   29   $26,000,000      
2020   30   $26,000,000      may opt out of contract following 2020 season
2021   31   $29,000,000      
2022   32   $29,000,000      
2023   33   $32,000,000      
2024   34   $32,000,000      
2025   35   $32,000,000      
2026   36   $29,000,000      
2027   37   $25,000,000      
2028   38   *$25,000,000      *$25M Team Option, $10M Buyout

[hutch]

I think Smackie you are undervaluing the market...

players just cost a lot more now....baseball is profitable.... tickets cost more....television contracts are higher for many teams....there's inflation.... the dollar just ain't what it used to be....

ground beef at Trader Joe's used to be 2.49 a pound 3 years ago...it went up to 3.99 and just a few weeks ago to 4.49....

[vansmack]

I think Smackie you are undervaluing the market...

Is this about the Butler deal?

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

ground beef at Trader Joe's used to be 2.49 a pound 3 years ago...it went up to 3.99 and just a few weeks ago to 4.49....

Relating the vagaries of ground beef futures prices-to-MLB salaries is the new sabermetrics.

[hutch]

ground beef at Trader Joe's used to be 2.49 a pound 3 years ago...it went up to 3.99 and just a few weeks ago to 4.49....

Relating the vagaries of ground beef futures prices-to-MLB salaries is the new sabermetrics.

I am NOT a sabermetrician!

[hutch]

I think Smackie you are undervaluing the market...

Is this about the Butler deal?

and Stanton too....yes.

[vansmack]

and Stanton too....yes.

Just wanted to be sure because I defended the $30m plus per year salaries in 2020 for Trout, Stanton, etc.  Not Harper.

But the Butler deal I don't get.  Sure, $10m is not a lot of money, but for Oakland?  That's 1/7th of their salary for a one dimensional, overweight singles hitter whose decline over the last 2 seasons has been meteoric. 

He doesn't hit HR's (9), he doesn't walk anymore (.323 OBP), no longer hits fly balls (near the league lead in GIDP), and can't play the field. How is this a Beane guy?

Sure, he hits lefties well, which Oakland needs, but $10m per season for a platoon player is not something Oakland can afford.   

 

[hutch]

and Stanton too....yes.

Just wanted to be sure because I defended the $30m plus per year salaries in 2020 for Trout, Stanton, etc.  Not Harper.

But the Butler deal I don't get.  Sure, $10m is not a lot of money, but for Oakland?  That's 1/7th of their salary for a one dimensional, overweight singles hitter whose decline over the last 2 seasons has been meteoric. 

He doesn't hit HR's (9), he doesn't walk anymore (.323 OBP), no longer hits fly balls (near the league lead in GIDP), and can't play the field. How is this a Beane guy?

Sure, he hits lefties well, which Oakland needs, but $10m per season for a platoon player is not something Oakland can afford.   

 

but they all make millions these days... even guys who bat .220 .....

my guess is they think they can help him have a late career resurgence... these days you don't get much for $10 million....

I mean I'd rather have Morse any day but how much do you think Morse will go for? Less than 10 million?

Salaries are ridiculous these days....that's just the way it is....

[vansmack]

I mean I'd rather have Morse any day but how much do you think Morse will go for? Less than 10 million?

He's 32, can't field, and can't stay healthy.  None of things are going to improve over the next few years...

If anybody gives Morse more than one-year/$7m they should be shot.  I see someone signing him for 2yrs/$15 though.

[vansmack]

Smackie's head just exploded:

http://grantland.com/features/mlb-transaction-trees/

Finding the roster spot with the longest lineage on all 30 teams

[Venerable Bede]

I think Smackie you are undervaluing the market...

players just cost a lot more now....baseball is profitable.... tickets cost more....television contracts are higher for many teams....there's inflation.... the dollar just ain't what it used to be....

ground beef at Trader Joe's used to be 2.49 a pound 3 years ago...it went up to 3.99 and just a few weeks ago to 4.49....

Inflation ain't the prime reason for the increase in beef costs.....