Why Bryce Harper is eclipsing Mike Trout in fantasy baseball
Ron Shandler, Fantasy
It's taken four years, but the planets are finally starting to align.
Coming into the 2011 season, the fantasy world was excited about the arrival of two of the most talented prospects the sport had ever seen. Bryce Harper was the consensus No. 1 prospect coming into that season. Mike Trout was safely within the top five.
Both were supposed to take the sport by storm. Yet both were still years from being able to share a beer legally. It had been a long time since such talented players might make an impact at such a young age.
The scouting reports described Harper as having prodigious power. That was an easy call after he hit 31 home runs in only 228 at-bats in his last year at the College of South Nevada. Trout had tremendous speed, amassing 56 stolen bases at two Class A stops in 2010.
Harper was the power guy. Trout was the speed guy.
In the four years since, each has taken a different path.
Trout hit the ground running, posting a historic 2012 campaign -- 30 homers, 49 stolen bases, .326 batting average -- and has maintained elite productivity every year since. He has fulfilled the speed expectations and added far more power than anyone expected.
Harper has battled inconsistency and injuries -- knee bursitis in 2013, a torn thumb ligament in 2014 -- that have cost him much playing time. Along the way, there were small signs that he might one day reach the potential we had expected.
And as of Sunday:
Trout Vs. Harper
PLAYER HR RBI R SB AVG R$
Mike Trout 18 41 52 8 0.304 $33
Bryce Harper 24 57 52 3 0.345 $41
Note: R$ is short for rotisserie value, a gauge that is benched against the caliber of offense each season.
Some analysts believe that once these players' careers are over, Harper will have the more impressive lifetime stat line.
That's a bold statement, and somewhat counterintuitive given the huge head start Trout has in this race. But it might not be completely off the wall.
For starters, both are still ridiculously young. Neither is old enough to rent a car at the "adult" rate. It's conceivable that both could be looking at careers that extend beyond 20 years.
Here are some interesting trends from Trout's career so far:
Mike Trout Production, 2011-2015
YEAR BA OBA SLG CT% BABIP R$
2011 .220 .281 .390 76% .247 -$2
2012 .326 .399 .564 75% .383 $45
2013 .323 .432 .557 77% .376 $43
2014 .287 .377 .561 69% .349 $38
2015 .304 .386 .581 75% .341 $37
Typically we'd expect to see some growth during the early years of a player's career. Trout's trends are mostly flat or declining, clearly because he started out at such a high level. His batting average on balls in play has been normalizing over time, indicating that his future batting averages might settle closer to .300 than .325.
And despite the high levels, his rotisserie value -- a gauge that is benched against the caliber of offense each season -- has also been in a slow decline.
After Trout's 2012 breakout, I was asked what the chances were that it would be the best year of his career. I said "99 percent." I'll stand by that statement.
Here are the similar gauges for Harper:
Bryce Harper Production, 2012-2015
YEAR BA OBA SLG CT% BABIP R$
2012 .270 .340 .477 77% .310 $23
2013 .274 .368 .486 78% .306 $20
2014 .273 .344 .423 70% .352 $10
2015 .345 .473 .735 75% .370 $42
While there are similarly flat trends for some of these metrics, Harper's 2015 performance to this point far exceeds anything he's done before. We don't know whether he can sustain these levels for three more months, or if he can even stay healthy during that time, but these numbers do exceed those Trout is currently producing.
Admittedly, it's not a strong argument for either player's Hall of Fame worthiness 25 years from now. But if these four years represent just the beginning of a 20-year run, there's still plenty of time for either to win this battle.
A look at future fantasy stars
For those fantasy leaguers entranced by each year's shiny new things, Harper and Trout are both old news. The important names now are players like Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, Joc Pederson and Carlos Correa.
It seems the hype that preceded these players was exceeded only by the rush to roster them. Is chasing the hype always the best approach? And if we use Trout and Harper as the benchmarks for levels worth chasing, how has this year's young talent crop measured up so far?
Rookie Production, Rotisserie Value
PLAYER BA OBA SLG CT% BABIP R$
Kris Bryant 0.277 0.379 0.455 65% 0.386 $22
Joey Gallo 0.222 0.319 0.476 54% 0.310 $4
Byron Buxton 0.120 0.185 0.200 64% 0.386 -$3
Joc Pederson 0.251 0.392 0.541 65% 0.301 $23
Carlos Correa 0.304 0.328 0.536 73% 0.368 $6
These are all small samples, but you can still see which players are already lacking in some key metrics.
The biggest takeaway? Almost all have depressed contact rates, a key skill that will filter down into all their other stats. Players who can't manage a 72 percent level could wind up looking up at a .250 batting average.
This is what immediately separates this group from any thought that they could approach Trout/Harper levels. Note that both Trout and Harper showed significantly better contact in their rookie year than any of this year's top prospects.
But all is not lost. Buxton had a 78 percent contact rate at two minor league stops this year. Correa's contact rate was up above 80 percent while in the minors. While they might not have the same level of power as players like Bryant, Gallo and Pederson, Buxton and Correa might have more long-term potential.
The big power bats will likely be feast-or-famine commodities. They might be Giancarlo Stanton one year, Chris Carter the next, so be prepared for both of those outcomes.
