Maybe we should just elect Trump president

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

Donald Trump will not get the GOP nomination. Anyone who thinks otherwise has an IQ in the 60s. His net favorability ratings among Republicans is 25-30 percentage points lower than Cruz or Rubio. His net favorability ratings among independents is -27%. He is unelectable. The second fringe candidates for the GOP nomination start to drop, the 65% of the Republican party who do not like him will coalesce around an establishment candidate. Again, look at who was leading in the polls in prior election cycles at this time.

How would Sanders do against Mike Huckabee, because he's your 2012 analogue to Trump.

[Relaxer]

Ok smart guy, who wins the GOP nomination?

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

Ok smart guy, who wins the GOP nomination?

It'll be one of Cruz, Rubio, or Bush. Whoever is in the best shape of those 3 after SC, the establishment will coalesce around them, the same way they have in the last two GOP nominations. I would find Bush, by far, the least likely of the three at current. I would find Rubio the most likely as of 1/20.

[walk,on,by]

nope.  trump, trump, trump . . . all the way.  whether you like it or not.  I have not seen this much momentum for any candidate, whether either party, for awhile.  he's crazy and real and straight forward and an entertainer and a business man and a carnival barker.  he is, this country. 

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Donald Trump   net favorability ratings among independents is -27%.

that is something that I keep saying, but doesn't seem to get traction
there is no way he can win a national

Independents are key and they are running away from trump like a smelly fart


Trump has changed things and a 6 month significant lead is really impressive
but getting the bozos who vote in Rebpub primaries are different than the people who come out on Election Day

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

nope.  trump, trump, trump . . . all the way.  whether you like it or not.  I have not seen this much momentum for any candidate, whether either party, for awhile. 

He's Howard Dean.

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

We should also consider that the GOP nom process is pretty odd in that the deep south states and Iowa and many others (which coincidentally are the ones that the Trumps and Cruzes of the world play best in) are all proportional delegate states and more establishment-friendly states later in the primary cycle are winner-take-all.

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

nope.  trump, trump, trump . . . all the way.  whether you like it or not.  I have not seen this much momentum for any candidate, whether either party, for awhile. 

He's Howard Dean.

just looking it up
interesting that the Iowa caucaus's were held Jan 19th in 2004
08 and 12 they were Jan 3rd

Why the Fcuk to they change this stuff around
I'm fine with states that do caucuses going first, but why can't all the other states just go on super Tuesday

the states that go in May and June...what's the point.  Kinda just wasting taxpayer money at that point



TIL - Both parties then enacted stricter timing rules for 2016: primaries and caucuses cannot start until February 1; and only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada are entitled to February contests

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

proportional delegate states and more establishment-friendly states later in the primary cycle are winner-take-all.

This too drives me crazy about elections...I don't think winner-take-all is a good way to do elections
it basically invalidates millions of votes in big states that could have turned the election

[shemptiness]

[Relaxer]

Classic Kuntzman

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

Classic Kuntzman

I mean, I'm sure most of us thought the same thing.

[killsaly]

Donald Trump will not get the GOP nomination. Anyone who thinks otherwise has an IQ in the 60s.

I do not believe a person with an IQ of 60 would care who gets the nomination, nor would they have any thoughts towards the matter...

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

Donald Trump will not get the GOP nomination. Anyone who thinks otherwise has an IQ in the 60s.

I do not believe a person with an IQ of 60 would care who gets the nomination, nor would they have any thoughts towards the matter...

Oh, I disagree. I definitely think Ted Cruz cares who gets the nomination.

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Donald Trump will not get the GOP nomination. Anyone who thinks otherwise has an IQ in the 60s.

I do not believe a person with an IQ of 60 would care who gets the nomination, nor would they have any thoughts towards the matter...

Oh, I disagree. I definitely think Ted Cruz cares who gets the nomination.

I really don't like cruz for a long list of reasons...but he's a pretty sharp cookie (unlike HWBush)

graduated Princeton cum laude.
   (wait for walkie to comment on this one)

on the debate team at Harvard Law, and got as far as the world championship semifinals before losing to Australia.
 (GGGRR those aussies are such good debaters)

He graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law, and was a primary editor of the Harvard Law Review

(seems like a good job if you want to be president or Supreme court Justice!)
 
Harvard Professor Alan Dershowitz described him as "off the charts brilliant".