Can we pivot the conversation a bit? Let's play hypothetical Clinton victory. What happens to Kaine's senate seat? I mean, yes, I know the governor fills it and there'll be a special election in 2017 followed by a regular election in 2018, but who gets it?
It's very weird with the timing. You need someone who can fundraise well and repeatedly since they basically have to run two Senate campaigns back to back, hypothetically. Let's play out a few scenarios:
(1) McAuliffe appoints himself. If McAuliffe wants Northam to be the next governor of Virginia, he gives him the ability to run as a de facto incumbent, something very rare in VA politics. McAuliffe passes the fundraisability test. McAuliffe, though, is not supremely likable. He puts the Dems losing the seat in play and if the Senate is 50-50 with Kaine casting tiebreaking votes, we run a serious risk of Hillary having a friendly Senate for exactly one year.
(2) McAuliffe goes with Northam. This is a Machiavellian powerplay if he wants to clear the path for Herring to be the next Governor (or at least the next democratic nom). If the Senate majority is more than one vote, he can risk Northam losing in 2017 with the chance to take the seat back in 2018, either by himself or another candidate from the below options.
(3) McAuliffe goes with the seniority choice and picks Bobby Scott, making him VAs first black senator since Reconstruction. (This assumes Scott wants the post.) He's a perfect middle of the road candidate. On the three big factors (does this look like cronyism, can he fundraise, do people like him) he's a solid 7 across the board. Outstanding in none, but no gaping issues. This seems the safest pick.
(4) Connolly or Beyer, the states other two Democratic Congressmen. Connolly looks like the better fundraiser but Beyer has more experience on a big stage. These are meh picks, although both come from fairly gerrymandered Congressional seats that the Dems won't lose in 2018. I would question either of these ability to win re-election, especially if Cuccinelli decides he wants a Senate seat instead of running for Governor again.
(5) Levar Stoney. Reeks of cronyism, but he's also young and personable and if he can get in the Senate, he can lock it down for multiple terms. Gets the Clinton/McAuliffe money-cannon fired at him. Will have to overcome the perception that a guy who is about to lose a Mayoral election in Richmond gets handed a Senate seat. (DO NOT GET ME STARTED ON THE RICHMOND MAYORAL RACE. I WILL TALK YOUR EAR OFF AND 90% OF IT WILL BE ME BRAGGING ENDLESSLY THAT EVERYONE MOCKED WHO I SAID WOULD WIN A YEAR AGO AND NOW THEY'RE CRUSHING. SERIOUSLY THE DUDE WE ARE ELECTING IS GOING TO GET MOCKED ON EVERY NATIONAL TELECAST, ITS AMAZING.)
