2022 - dems in disarray thread

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

sinecure

TIL...

I like!

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Ok, I'm never going to learn from the past, I still desire to read the tea leaves on polls...

But this site tracks early voting...and it's very interesting
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022


this vid of Joy reid in this tweet let me know the way republicans have made an effort to effectively corrupt and dilute the polls
https://twitter.com/cbouzy/status/1587238214313689088?s=20&t=Ci-B9noVLltnOM--KMNWmw
(I did think that was why 538 graded them, alas)

Although one would think releasing polls that show the R's leading (when they are not) would get people off the couch to vote as it looks like the Dem might lose

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

ack news is going every which way
but didn't like seeing this on 538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
senate is now leaning right

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Had no idea Gosar is running unopposed!

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/25/arizona-9th-congressional-district-candidates/10586110002/

[Starsky]

My prediction is democrats will receive a shellacking on Tuesday because of inflation. Basically Americans are poorer than they were when Biden took office and it’s pretty much impossible to overcome that….I mean go to a grocery store…it’s bad…never mind the reasons…and most people’s salaries haven’t gone up….people don’t care whose fault it is but they will take it out on democrats. I never bought into this whole women are going to come out in never before seen droves and punish conservatives. Also the congressional hearings on January 6 didn’t break through the noise. So we are fucked. I hope I am wrong and would love to be wrong but I expect Republicans to take control of both houses of Congress with a 15-25 vote majority in the house. Republicans will control the Senate 52-48. Personally I believe we can still retain the presidency in 2024 but given the shellacking that’s coming Tuesday I expect a lot of pressure on Biden not to seek re-election and I think it will be 50-50 whether he runs.

[Space Freely]

My prediction is democrats will receive a shellacking on Tuesday because of inflation. Basically Americans are poorer than they were when Biden took office and it’s pretty much impossible to overcome that….I mean go to a grocery store…it’s bad…never mind the reasons…and most people’s salaries haven’t gone up….people don’t care whose fault it is but they will take it out on democrats. I never bought into this whole women are going to come out in never before seen droves and punish conservatives. Also the congressional hearings on January 6 didn’t break through the noise. So we are fucked. I hope I am wrong and would love to be wrong but I expect Republicans to take control of both houses of Congress with a 15-25 vote majority in the house. Republicans will control the Senate 52-48. Personally I believe we can still retain the presidency in 2024 but given the shellacking that’s coming Tuesday I expect a lot of pressure on Biden not to seek re-election and I think it will be 50-50 whether he runs.

Nothing to add except I think you are right but hope you are wrong.

They talk about women coming out in droves to save their abortion rights, but what they don't talk about are Christian or Catholic conservative women who want to stop the baby killing. For example, my mother in law who wants to make ammends for her own abortion by preventing others from being able to do the same.

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

If anything, J6 seemed to inspire the right more than the left
I hope we don't lose the senate, but with the filibuster, it's not like we really had it
Had we increased our majority to 55 or something, then it would have been more doable, but at 50-53 it's not as powerful as one would think

I'd like to see the numbers after
To me it seemed like the was a big GOTV effort over the summer, but seemed to kind of wane
almost 160 million people voted in 2020 around 63% of those eligible (that's a quirky thing too as a lot of who should be eligible dems can't vote)

in 2018...which was a huge turnout for a midterm...we only got around 48% around 122 million people

So any thoughts on turnout.  Will it be greater than 2018.   My take is it won't and likely only 100-110 mil will vote...and ergo, the dems get shellacked

I just hope we don't go to 2014 numbers where only 36.4% showed up
oh yea that was the red wave year wasn't it...see a trend

[Starsky]

Of course we have the senate. Who had the committee chairmanships? We’re we able to confirm our nominees?

The things you write sometimes…

[Starsky]

With all due respect


The idea that higher turnout favors the democrats is just one of those erroneous ideas you will evidently go to your grave clutching.

What matters is not the turnout percentage but the turnout percentage of your potential voters (some call it base) and specifically in the places it makes a difference. It’s like you have learned nothing from Trump.

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Of course we have the senate. Who had the committee chairmanships? We’re we able to confirm our nominees?

ok yes those things are important
but bills live or die on the filibuster.
so yes judges (ok big deal) and budget allocations and such
but we can't get things for the president to sign in the current make up

you will evidently go to your grave clutching.

absolutely, may even ask to have it be my epitaph

What matters is not the turnout percentage but the turnout percentage of your potential voters (some call it base) and specifically in the places it makes a difference.

of course, but the voter suppression of the dem vote though various nefarious methods across soo many states means that the only way to combat that is to show up in greater numbers across the board
Now Trump actually increased the R turnout in 2020 by like 11 mil.  That was incredible and why the GOP licks his balls on the daily as he got the votes out (and sadly is doing the same this election)

I Rember a few years ago Smakie posted an article from the economist that stated that dems pretty much have to win elections by 56% or higher due to the EC/voter suppression/Gerrymadering/closing/moving polls/purging rolls of only dem voters



In good news in Virginia, it is now the Law that you can do same day voter registration at the polls!
that's awesome and trust me the GOP in VA didn't want that to happen

[Starsky]

Any US president is only going to be able to pass a few select bills. That’s the way it works (or doesn’t). It’s been that way for decades. Anybody thinking we had a shot at 55 really either needs to visit the loony bin or start reading more.

Administering the huge federal bureaucracy, making all the regulations etc is a huge part of governing. Even if Biden hadn’t passed one bill the change from Trump would be night and day.

 

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Anybody thinking we had a shot at 55 really either needs to visit the loony bin or start reading more.

I didn't think that was actually going to happen based on how things were going.

but if there was an amazing groundswell of GOTV and people got off their asses in the right states...there is no reason mathmaticly it couldn't

That is what happened in VA.  Biden wins by ten points...one year later we get a GOP gov, because 800k of dems just stayed home

[Starsky]

Anybody thinking we had a shot at 55 really either needs to visit the loony bin or start reading more.

I didn't think that was actually going to happen based on how things were going.

but if there was an amazing groundswell of GOTV and people got off their asses in the right states...there is no reason mathmaticly it couldn't

That is what happened in VA.  Biden wins by ten points...one year later we get a GOP gov, because 800k of dems just stayed home

Turnout is always lower in non presidential elections and on both sides. You can’t seriously expect turnout in VA to have matched the presidential election with highest turnout in like a century!

Saying if 800,000 more people who would vote for me voted I would win….if nobody else voted for the other guy…

Well, I think it blathers for itself

The whole voter suppression thing we discussed months ago…democrats just want to blame those evil republicans and the fact democrats have controlled cities with five hour long voting lines cycle after cycle and managed to do exactly nothing to make it better escapes them… they are entirely powerless we are told….they have never controlled all levels of state government…the federal government is powerless…it’s just them evil racist republicans….

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Saying if 800,000 more people who would vote for me voted I would win…

well we only needed 75k more of them to show up, not 800k

[Starsky]

Terry should never have been the candidate; that’s what it boils down to….

The rest is hypothetical.

But there was a lesson in Virginia which is democrats can’t run on simply trying to tie republicans to Trump or fearmongering about the end times if Republicans win….

Blaming people for not voting really is not constructive…it doesn’t accomplish anything…better to look into why they are not voting

Also, calling people racists really doesn’t get you any closer to getting their vote. It’s not as simple as you are a racist or not. At least I don’t think so…People have racial prejudices they have been socialized into…you still have to communicate with these people and try to earn their vote…calling them racists just doesn’t get you very far.