The 2020 thread....

[hutch]

Of course still need Nevada

I am reading all kinds of stuff about votes outstanding in PA but when you are 500k down...

Man

[challenged]

Going to sleep: 1142pm
RCP has it at
216 Biden
125 Trump

Biden needs 54: PA (20), MN (10), AZ (11), MI (16). I fear that Biden will not get MI. And Trump wins 279, 259, or something close to that.

And even if Biden wins, certainly not any kind of repudiation of Trump. And the radical right comes right back in 4 years.

Hope.

 

[kosmo vinyl]

Yeah me too on trying to sleep.. and I know it’s a little thing in the scheme of things but I’m glad fairfax got their act together...

And it seem those Regean Democrats north of Detroit apparently are  screwing stuff up again, must be pissed about not being able to go to the gym or some other nonsense

[Space Freely]

Going to sleep: 1142pm
RCP has it at
216 Biden
125 Trump

Biden needs 54: PA (20), MN (10), AZ (11), MI (16). I fear that Biden will not get MI. And Trump wins 279, 259, or something close to that.

And even if Biden wins, certainly not any kind of repudiation of Trump. And the radical right comes right back in 4 years.

Hope.

You're forgetting WI.

[hutch]

Going to sleep: 1142pm
RCP has it at
216 Biden
125 Trump

Biden needs 54: PA (20), MN (10), AZ (11), MI (16). I fear that Biden will not get MI. And Trump wins 279, 259, or something close to that.

And even if Biden wins, certainly not any kind of repudiation of Trump. And the radical right comes right back in 4 years.

Hope.

I will happily take a 270-268 win...but it does look tough

I don’t care how many votes are outstanding when I see Biden down 500K in PA and 300K in Michigan it doesn’t look good

It will be a couple of hours before I can sleep

[Space Freely]

That RCP doesn't include NV. If he takes NV,AZ, and WI, he only needs one of PA or MI.

[hutch]

I know...

When I try to drill down numbers in PA I am not feeling confident but it’s hard to make sense of things unless you are a real number cruncher and know these states

Best shot for Biden is NV + AZ + WI + MI + a district elector in ME or NE

It’s that simple

The toughest piece of that is Michigan

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

Don’t look now but the NYT “needle” is now predicting GA to Biden based on pretty much all the outstanding vote being in metro Atlanta.

Hold onto your butts.

[Space Freely]

Don’t look now but the NYT “needle” is now predicting GA to Biden based on pretty much all the outstanding vote being in metro Atlanta.

Hold onto your butts.

Just came to post that. Stacey Abrams could be our hero.

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

PA is a who knows. The outstanding ballots are overwhelmingly in Dem areas.

This is starting to look better for Biden. Fox has him at 237 with Nevada, Georgia,  MI, PA, Wisconsin and the two single district electoral votes left in play. (They’ve called AZ, MN, and HI for him).

[hutch]

Don’t rule out Fox retracting it’s AZ call....

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

Don’t rule out Fox retracting it’s AZ call....

I’ve seen nothing that would lead me to believe that’s getting retracted. I’m surprised more agencies haven’t followed suit.

[hutch]

It seems like if Biden wins he will have to deal with a R Senate until at least 2022
I don’t think we can pick up a seat in GA

It’s the least of my concerns. Biden must win and be inaugurated January 2021.

[hutch]

Decision Desk HQ calls NE-2 for Biden


We are - if this call is accurate- in business

We need at least NV and by my count two of three from WI PA and GA

https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323869530104438784

[hutch]

Biden leading Nevada with 74% of vote in I think


If Biden wins Nevada he needs two of: PA, WI, GA and MI


Trump needs three of those

That seems to be situation