Stanley Cup Picks

[godsshoeshine]

to be fair, i picked sharks sweep only to upset you because you picked philly

[vansmack]

I got to watch the game last night with a bunch of Sharks Fans (the joys of living away from where one grew up), so I'm extra fired up now.

And I agree.  This is still a tough Ducks team, and if they can minimize the mistakes, they're going to be tough in the playoffs.

[vansmack]

to be fair, i picked sharks sweep only to upset you because you picked philly

In seven!

With any luck we'll both be wrong.

[godsshoeshine]

if i would have picked the sharks in 7 it wouldnt have stung

but yes, hopefully we will both be wrong

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

I didn't want the Ducks in the first round. I still think Detroit would've won that series (and would if it was the second round series too), but San Jose is a completely different set of head cases.

Someone on hockeybuzz (a SJ blogger, in fact) had the best stat line I ever saw. He took all the playoff teams and posted their winning precentage against the other playoff teams. The elite teams everyone's been picking to win the Cup (Boston, Detroit, Jersey) were all in the mid 50s. Washington I think was at 60%. San Jose... 35%. As he put it, as long as the NHL refuses to allow non-playoff teams into the playoffs, it'll be the same result for the Sharks.

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

Why the Sharks Will Fail Again: They Can't Beat Playoff Teams

Ironically, the NHL playoffs have always had one characteristic that keeps the Sharks from finding postseason success: It contains playoff teams. Despite impressive records, scoring titles or broken records, the Sharks have consistently come up short against playoff teams, both in the regular season and postseason. I thought that disturbing trend would change this season, more because of the law of averages than anything San Jose did during the offseason. Unfortunately, I was wrong.

The Sharks are still beating up on non-playoff teams, using the weak and weary to pad their statistics and inflate their record, but they continue to fall short against the league's best, even though they stand among them. The league still isn't allowing non-playoff teams to take part in the playoffs, putting the Sharks at a major disadvantage each spring.

Just look at the numbers. Using the current standings, the Sharks have played 20 games against playoff teams since January 1. They have only won 7 of those 20 games; a woeful 35 percent. However, in 21 games against non-playoff teams over that stretch, the Sharks have won 16 games, an impressive 76 percent.

San Jose Sharks
Playoff: 7-9-4 - 35%
Non-playoff: 16-3-2 - 76%

Of course it's natural for strong teams to have a better record against their weaker opponents, but the Sharks take it to the extreme. Comparing the Sharks to six other teams near the top of the league, you'll find that San Jose has the lowest winning percentage against playoff teams but the highest winning percentage against non-playoff teams.

Boston Bruins
Playoff: 13-7-4 - 54%
Non-playoff: 10-5-2 - 58%

Calgary Flames
Playoff: 10-8-2 - 50%
Non-playoff: 12-9 - 57%

Detroit Red Wings
Playoff: 10-7-2 - 52%
Non-playoff: 16-5-2 - 69%

New Jersey Devils
Playoff: 14-9-1 - 58%
Non-playoff: 14-5 - 73%

Vancouver Canucks
Playoff: 8-4-4 - 50%
Non-playoff: 14-7-3 - 58%

Washington Capitals
Playoff: 12-5-3 - 60%
Non-playoff: 11-7-2 - 55%

Winning Percentage vs. Playoff Teams
Washington 60%
New Jersey 58%
Boston 54%
Detroit 52%
Calgary 50%
Vancouver 50%
San Jose 35%

Winning Percentage vs. Non-Playoff Teams
San Jose 76%
New Jersey 73%
Detroit 69%
Boston 58%
Vancouver 58%
Calgary 57%
Washington 55%

On April 15 the Sharks won't have Phoenix, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Dallas, Colorado or Minnesota to kick around. Instead, they'll face legitimate teams that are talented, well coached and well prepared, and winning 35 percent of the games won't take them very far. I don't mean to say that the Sharks can't win, but recent history has indicated that they won't, and the numbers continue to back up that assumption.

The Sharks held a team meeting the day after their 4-3 loss to Phoenix on March 17, and have turned things around since then, picking up points in six of their last eight games. Or have they? In fact, the Sharks are 4-0 against non-playoff teams since that meeting. Against playoff teams, they're 2-2-1. That's not great, but a 40 percent winning percentage is better than 35.

San Jose's main problem continues to be work ethic. It's easy to defeat the weak teams on skill alone, outskating and outshooting without much effort, but when the Sharks are pushed over a best-of-seven series they crack and crumble like a Ritz cracker. There might be a new bench boss calling the shots, and he might have some tricks up his sleeve to stave off another playoff collapse, but he can't put Mike Grier's heart in Joe Thornton's body, and can't prevent Patrick Marleau's offense from another second-round disappearing act.

Doug Wilson has done a phenomenal job filling holes and adding depth, covering up for the natural complacency of his elite players. However, his best need to be at their best against the league's best, and until we see it how can we believe they're capable of it? I don't care how many times Thornton proclaims that the Sharks are the best team in the league. Until he's the best player on the ice in a meaningful game that will continue to be an empty statement.

Maybe at the next general managers' meetings Doug Wilson should ask the league to implement college football's current system, ranking teams after the regular season and allowing them to play in a single championship game rather than a playoff format. That way, the Sharks would contend each season without worrying about those second-round upsets. Besides, the Sharks would have a much better chance of winning a single game rather than a best-of-seven series. I'd put it right around 35 percent.

ryan.garner@hockeybuzz.com

[RatBastard]

GO RANGERS!

[xneverwherex]

GO RANGERS!

lets hope the momentum continues at the garden. im hoping i can get to either game 3 or 4. Lundquist is looking great!

[Staralfur25]

Pittsburghs going to win it all.   

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

Pittsburghs going to win it all.   

Weren't nearly good enough to do it last season, and not nearly as good this season as last, while the real contenders have improved. So, no.

[sonickteam2]

 i am loving the playoffs so far.  Julian, the Bruins looked Red Wing-esque last night.

 Zero penalty killing minutes (til the last 4 minutes of the game) and 3-5 on the power play.

   

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

i am loving the playoffs so far.  Julian, the Bruins looked Red Wing-esque last night.

I watched much of that game as well. The Bruins are definitely the team I'm most afraid of. I still think if Osgood plays as well as he has so far in the playoffs and the defense in front of him plays like they have been, the Wings will beat all comers, but if the Wings slip alittle, Boston can definitely beat them.

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

LOL @ San Jose.

Detroit v Anaheim might be the de facto western finals. Vancouver and Chicago don't look like they could hang with either.

[sonickteam2]

LOL @ San Jose.

Detroit v Anaheim might be the de facto western finals. Vancouver and Chicago don't look like they could hang with either.

I think Chicago could surprise someone.  they are just that young and unpredictable.

 

[RatBastard]

Again Obitchkin shows no class.