Maybe we should just elect Trump president

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

Also, we are a week out from the GOP convention and we have NO IDEA who is speaking at this thing. We don't even know the keynote speeches. This is really bizarre.

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

In other words, the Trump campaign is doing swimmingly.

is this the kind of swimming you are envisioning

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Also, we are a week out from the GOP convention and we have NO IDEA who is speaking at this thing. We don't even know the keynote speeches. This is really bizarre.

I thought Carson was getting a good billing

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

Also, we are a week out from the GOP convention and we have NO IDEA who is speaking at this thing. We don't even know the keynote speeches. This is really bizarre.

I thought Carson was getting a good billing

I didn't hear this. Do we know what day he's speaking?

[ye-ole-hatch ıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Also, we are a week out from the GOP convention and we have NO IDEA who is speaking at this thing. We don't even know the keynote speeches. This is really bizarre.

I thought Carson was getting a good billing

I didn't hear this. Do we know what day he's speaking?

me...I know nothing, but could have sworn I heard pundits talking about that on NPR I think
but the thought is there will be one 'minority' night where they will let African Americans, Latino's and Women get up on the stage...Higly doubt there will be any Muslim or LGBT representation tho

[hutch]

but yeah if H can win VA and FL and she looks comfortably up she could lose almost every contested state and still win!

I'm sure you agree but if Hillary wins VA and FL it speaks to larger national and demographic trends  that all but assure she will take 75% of the contested states (i. e. if she takes Va and FL, she's winning Pennsylvania and Nevada by extremely comfortable margins and Ohio by around the amount she takes FL).

well... I can't be sure of that... I err on the side of caution.. polls coming out of VA and FL show her leading very comfortably..

I guess what I'm saying is even in a worst case scenario if she wins FL and VA she would be in...


as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .Sidehatch you really need to look into this stuff because the idea you can like Bernie and Mark Warner is pretty laughable... I mean WTF? Also, Warner gave the worst Democratic Convention speech I can recall... he is just awful.

[hutch]

I feel strong dislike for Mark Warner in case it wasn't clear.... he's permanently talking about compromise compromise compromise.. and NEVER gets anything actually done.

[hutch]

And I don't know.. I would have to see the demographics for VA and FL vs PA


yes PA has gone blue for a long time.. but VA and FL have far more hispanics coming in... also VA and FL have less of a "rust belty" feel to them.... the western half of PA might as well be OH.. also VA and FL- don't quote me on this- have had pretty dynamic job pictures.. how is PA doing?

at this point - at least in the polls for whatever they're worth- HRC lead in VA and FL is nearly double that in PA...

of course once they get done digging up the dead bodies in Philly.....and remember that Trump did fairly poor in VA primary.. yes he won but with barely 30%!

as far as FL you have Jeb Bush , Rubio .. even the Miami mayor is on record that he will not vote for Trump.. the Cuban American republicans who usually go Republican- a lot of them are on record saying they will not vote for Trump....  add the half million new Puerto Ricans in FL.. geez, its not a pretty picture for Trump down there...

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .

I didn't say I liked the guy. He's a centrist, extremely popular former Governor of a swing state. He is far more charismatic than Tim Kaine. I'm kind of surprised Kaine has had the national career he had, he always seemed like he got elected (Governor) basically because VA couldn't elect Warner again.

[hutch]

as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .

I didn't say I liked the guy. He's a centrist, extremely popular former Governor of a swing state. He is far more charismatic than Tim Kaine. I'm kind of surprised Kaine has had the national career he had, he always seemed like he got elected (Governor) basically because VA couldn't elect Warner again.

no way.. he is not far more charismatic and he is NOT liked.. you're just not doing your homework dude.. he barely got reelected! go check out the results

dude I love you but its like you don't know what you're talking about

http://augustafreepress.com/toocloseforcomfort-mark-warner-wins-senate-re-election-razor-thin-margin/


he BARELY won in an election where the Republican money abandoned Gillespie cause they thought he could not win!

How can you not remember this? were you not in VA?

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

yes PA has gone blue for a long time.. but VA and FL have far more hispanics coming in... also VA and FL have less of a "rust belty" feel to them.... the western half of PA might as well be OH.. also VA and FL- don't quote me on this- have had pretty dynamic job pictures.. how is PA doing?

at this point - at least in the polls for whatever they're worth- HRC lead in VA and FL is nearly double that in PA...

I suppose it's possible Hillary wins VA and FL and loses PA but I'd put the odds on at that around 5%. It would take a weird confluence of events.

But I maintain wins in FL and VA portend well in NH, AZ, CO, NV (and to a lesser extent NC and MO) and it would be virtually impossible for her to take those and strike out on ALL the other swing states and not win. Which, again, you obviously agree with.

[hutch]

yes PA has gone blue for a long time.. but VA and FL have far more hispanics coming in... also VA and FL have less of a "rust belty" feel to them.... the western half of PA might as well be OH.. also VA and FL- don't quote me on this- have had pretty dynamic job pictures.. how is PA doing?

at this point - at least in the polls for whatever they're worth- HRC lead in VA and FL is nearly double that in PA...

I suppose it's possible Hillary wins VA and FL and loses PA but I'd put the odds on at that around 5%. It would take a weird confluence of events.

But I maintain wins in FL and VA portend well in NH, AZ, CO, NV (and to a lesser extent NC and MO) and it would be virtually impossible for her to take those and strike out on ALL the other swing states and not win. Which, again, you obviously agree with.

yes I agree...  she is in a great position.. she should wipe the floor with him in the debates.. barring any unforeseen issues she should win comfortably..

I'm upping my forecast to 80% odds Hillary wins.... I started with 66%.....

[hutch]

also jobs jobs jobs.. the 300,000 jobs created in June.. big..... in an ideal world the Fed does not hike interest rates.. stock markets keeps going up... economy lets say creates another million jobs (maybe 700K if cautious)...


its just hard to imagine her losing in this scenario.....

[Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI]

as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .

I didn't say I liked the guy. He's a centrist, extremely popular former Governor of a swing state. He is far more charismatic than Tim Kaine. I'm kind of surprised Kaine has had the national career he had, he always seemed like he got elected (Governor) basically because VA couldn't elect Warner again.

no way.. he is not far more charismatic and he is NOT liked.. you're just not doing your homework dude.. he barely got reelected! go check out the results

dude I love you but its like you don't know what you're talking about

http://augustafreepress.com/toocloseforcomfort-mark-warner-wins-senate-re-election-razor-thin-margin/


he BARELY won in an election where the Republican money abandoned Gillespie cause they thought he could not win!

How can you not remember this? were you not in VA?

That election as a whole was a bloodbath for Democrats. Things were not trending well for Dems as a whole and that hurt Warner. Look at his whole tenure. He left the governorship with a 70+% approval rating after a tenure hanging around 80%. He won in '08 with 65% of the vote. I get you don't like the guy (which is fine, I'm not a Mark Warner fanboy) but to act like he's not the most liked (current) politician in the state of Virginia is absurd.

[hutch]

as far as Mark Warner.. I cannot beleive you like that guy .. he is AWFUL.. practically a Republican.. .

I didn't say I liked the guy. He's a centrist, extremely popular former Governor of a swing state. He is far more charismatic than Tim Kaine. I'm kind of surprised Kaine has had the national career he had, he always seemed like he got elected (Governor) basically because VA couldn't elect Warner again.

no way.. he is not far more charismatic and he is NOT liked.. you're just not doing your homework dude.. he barely got reelected! go check out the results

dude I love you but its like you don't know what you're talking about

http://augustafreepress.com/toocloseforcomfort-mark-warner-wins-senate-re-election-razor-thin-margin/


he BARELY won in an election where the Republican money abandoned Gillespie cause they thought he could not win!

How can you not remember this? were you not in VA?

That election as a whole was a bloodbath for Democrats. Things were not trending well for Dems as a whole and that hurt Warner. Look at his whole tenure. He left the governorship with a 70+% approval rating after a tenure hanging around 80%. He won in '08 with 65% of the vote. I get you don't like the guy (which is fine, I'm not a Mark Warner fanboy) but to act like he's not the most liked (current) politician in the state of Virginia is absurd.

it was a bloodbath. that is true...

but Gillespie was a pretty weak candidate.. I think Warner's stock has dropped more than you acknowledge.. he went from being a VP candidate to struggling to keep his job.... the State is changing... VA elected Mcauliffe (sic) for pete's sake...even if grudgingly...

-30- (I'm trying this out.)