Isn't fivethirtyeight the same site that had Clinton as an 80% favorite to win the 206 election?
I'm pretty sure Nate came out and said that there was errors in the way they did 2016
so they are very gunshy and I would bet they are playing it REALLY safe
I think they also focused on likely voters and a lot of people who never vote came out for trump
But I agree...polling in 2016 was crazy off...but we've never had Trump before
I think people were embarrassed to tell pollsters they would vote for Trump, but in the booth not so
I think the base for the dem's were very cocksure and I think the polling from places like 529 were the cause of that
but they are super fired up now (they weren't in 2016 ...except for the bernie crew)
Now to be clear...I'm just pulling all this out of my "Foo Chute"