COVID-19 2020

[Space Freely]

Hey Hutch, I heard Arlington County Schools just made the decision for you.

[hutch]

Yeah Hutchette just called to give me the good news


In the horrible grand scheme of it I think it’s for the best..I had sort of decided already I wouldn’t send them to school

They need to just focus all resources on making online teaching and learning the best it can be

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

yeah to boot this was a headline today
Arlington Sees Highest One-Day Coronavirus Case Total Since May


This was also a headline
Arlington has again claimed the title of “America’s Fittest City.”
take that Seattle slackers!

[hutch]

Those kind of rankings (“Top cities for...” or “Best cities in..”) always make no sense to me but Arlington is always at the top or very near...sometimes it doesn’t even ring true...I wonder if it has to do with Arlington being like the smallest county or something like that

[Justin Tonation]

six reasons for optimism

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

six reasons for optimism

This is what I keep saying and glad to hear that this is a reason to be optimistic
Rapid, low-cost saliva tests are also coming, and, as my colleague Michael Mina and Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently pointed out, they are a game-changer. Why? These are like home pregnancy tests but for covid-19. Imagine a test you could take at home every day, that gives you an answer in a few minutes after spitting into a vial and costs only $1 to $5. Such a test would change our ability to slow outbreaks where early detection is everything. It would also help consumer confidence and slow down this economic crisis. Want to go to school or work or a Broadway show? Show your rapid test was negative. These tests are not perfectly accurate, but the counterintuitive part is that they don’t have to be. More important than accuracy are speed and frequency of testing.

[hutch]

If people won’t wear a mask cause “Freedumb!!” you think they will willingly take test?

[sweetcell]

reasons for pessimism: people like this....

Rush Limbaugh: Americans should “adapt” to coronavirus, like famous pioneers who “had to turn to cannibalism”
Limbaugh: “Life has to go on… And I believe this should become one of the themes that the president adopts, as he adapts to what’s necessary going forward in his presidential campaign”

[Justin Tonation]

My concern with a vaccine is how it functions. If it's like a conventional vaccine (weakened virus that stimulates immunity but doesn't cause illness) then it might be easy to require it by law in some circumstances, e.g. attend public school. But if it takes a novel approach and its long-term safety is not yet known, anti-vaxxers will have a solid case for refusing it.

There are 154 vaccines in development, conventional and otherwise. Many will work, probably including some conventional.

[hutch]

I mean I was talking about this with my mom a couple of days ago and I was saying I cannot see taking a vaccine straight away...wouldn’t it be kind of stupid to do so (before knowing what side effects there might be)?

[sweetcell]

any new vaccine will be tested.  either most, or all, of the side-effects will be known.  if the vaccine is available, the side-effects are better than the disease.

you know what definitely has nasty side-effects?  COVID-19.

i'll take my chances with the vaccine.  can't wait for the side-benefit of being able to go out and enjoy many aspects of normal life again.

[hutch]

It was an honest question


You think they can rush a vaccine out in October and have fully tested for side effects say a year after taking it?

Usually vaccines take years to develop so I think it’s fair to be concerned about vaccines developed in 6 months..

[sweetcell]

it's a perfectly valid question. apologies if my reply came across otherwise.

we won't have 100% certainty that any vaccine is completely safe.  there will be a risk with taking a rushed vaccine.  but in my estimation, the risk will be much lower than the risks associated with contracting COVID-19.  one could avoid both risks by continuing to shelter at home, but i'm willing to accept the risk of a rushed vaccine in return for the ability to go about in public.  i'll probably still wear a mask, tho.

[StoneTheCrow]

if the vaccine is available, the side-effects are better than the disease.

It’s entirely possible that some side effects could be quite nasty. Worse than the virus? Unlikely, but very undesirable nonetheless.

[hutch]

I think the side effects from vaccine could be worse than covid given many people don’t experience any symptoms from covid.

Let’s say I wouldn’t have experienced symptoms or adverse impacts- yes, impossible to know- and I get vaccine and have serious side effects.

This has to be balanced by the fact I wouldn’t spread it if vaccine was successful in preventing me from getting it.

On the other hand I have hardly gone out in four months and plan to keep it that way.

How can they test for future impact from vaccine if they basically have it out in a few months?