On climate Manchin is way more harmful than just his vote. Just a couple of examples, but he has single handledly kept the Federal Energy Regulatory Commissions from considering climate change when it approves pipelines and he is stopping the Fed and other agencies from dealing with climate risk. Part of it is structural, and the committees he is on (Chair of Energy and a vote on Approps). At least on climate, if the Dems had 51 votes, they would probably be better off with it just being 50 without Manchin.