Twitter thread

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

Where are these experts?



Some people say the housing market will crash next


People say a lot of things

I'm going to freely admit I don't know the answer to this, but can people point me to a time when housing prices legitimately crashed? Not, went down 5% and rebounded in a 18 months, but crashed.

2008

Did they really though? I'm not saying there were no deals whatsoever to be had in 2008 or someone who bought in 2007 and sold in 2008 didn't get bopped, but from 2006-2011, didn't house prices rise generally? Feel free to correct me with data.

[Starsky]

No secret incomes haven’t kept up

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

No secret incomes haven’t kept up

and heath care costs

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

No secret incomes haven’t kept up

I would argue for a sufficient number of people they have as evidenced by houses selling.

People are buying multiple houses. Less people own the same number of houses and more people are getting shifted to the renter class. Which has negative externalities, but house prices going down isn't one.

[Starsky]

No secret inequality has gone up

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

No secret inequality has gone up

Agreed. But you're talking about the social aspect of this. Which is fine discussion. But what I'm saying from a purely economic standpoint that I don't think rising inequality = housing bubble.

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

2008

yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it

but if you are in real estate on anything but a 10 year time horizon, it's just risky

[Starsky]

I actually don’t know what I am talking about…

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

2008

yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it

but if you are in real estate on anything but a 10 year time horizon, it's just risky

See, I asked for data and someone gave it to me. Thanks. So my view of 2008 was correct-ish in spirit but I had the dip a bit too compressed.

yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it

^ That's the key.

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

I actually don’t know what I am talking about…

that's no secret

[kosmo vinyl]

David Lowery posts a press release about a new Camper Van Beethoven album generally mocking cyrpto, nfts, technology, etc.

David C Lowery
@davidclowery
Next
@TheBandCracker
 album will be a "physically encoded" NFT. Limited edition. You may purchase it with any fiat currency including the Canadian Peso. 

Facebook Group Members lose their stuffing over this

https://twitter.com/davidclowery/status/1524883904938795030?s=20&t=rcfTGo7_oYtCqFsT_e2j6A

Sweets can fill us all in the Canadian Peso

[Starsky]

Lowery has grown tiresome

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Sweets can fill us all in the Canadian Peso

dang beat me to the punch on that one
I mean people on the outside of our borders all look the same, so it's an honest mistake

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

Lowery has grown tiresome

EXTREMELY. Very much in "old man yells at cloud" territory.

[sweetcell]

odd reasoning...but that tracks (that he does odd things)

on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users

his reasoning is sound: the #1 thing you're acquiring when buying something like twitter is the user-base.  the code can be rewritten, the infrastructure can be replaced - but users can't (RE: "if you're not paying for the product, you ARE the product" - and twitter is free, so...)

so if you were promised only 5% bad apples, and there is more than 5%, you're not getting what you were promised.  also, getting bots and fake accounts off of twitter is one of elon's stated goals.  he needs to know how big the problem is.