Author Topic: Twitter thread  (Read 171532 times)

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #810 on: May 13, 2022, 09:22:11 am »
Where are these experts?



Some people say the housing market will crash next


People say a lot of things
I'm going to freely admit I don't know the answer to this, but can people point me to a time when housing prices legitimately crashed? Not, went down 5% and rebounded in a 18 months, but crashed.

2008
Did they really though? I'm not saying there were no deals whatsoever to be had in 2008 or someone who bought in 2007 and sold in 2008 didn't get bopped, but from 2006-2011, didn't house prices rise generally? Feel free to correct me with data.
LVMH

Starsky

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #811 on: May 13, 2022, 09:22:53 am »
No secret incomes haven’t kept up

Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #812 on: May 13, 2022, 09:30:38 am »
No secret incomes haven’t kept up
and heath care costs
slack

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #813 on: May 13, 2022, 09:32:01 am »
No secret incomes haven’t kept up
I would argue for a sufficient number of people they have as evidenced by houses selling.

People are buying multiple houses. Less people own the same number of houses and more people are getting shifted to the renter class. Which has negative externalities, but house prices going down isn't one.
LVMH

Starsky

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #814 on: May 13, 2022, 09:34:49 am »
No secret inequality has gone up

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #815 on: May 13, 2022, 09:35:47 am »
No secret inequality has gone up
Agreed. But you're talking about the social aspect of this. Which is fine discussion. But what I'm saying from a purely economic standpoint that I don't think rising inequality = housing bubble.
LVMH

Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #816 on: May 13, 2022, 09:36:55 am »
2008


yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it

but if you are in real estate on anything but a 10 year time horizon, it's just risky
slack

Starsky

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #817 on: May 13, 2022, 09:37:33 am »
I actually don’t know what I am talking about…

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #818 on: May 13, 2022, 09:45:58 am »
2008


yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it

but if you are in real estate on anything but a 10 year time horizon, it's just risky
See, I asked for data and someone gave it to me. Thanks. So my view of 2008 was correct-ish in spirit but I had the dip a bit too compressed.

Quote
yes if you bought in 07-08 you would have had to wait 7 years possibly to break even, but that honestly isn't that unreasonable, especially if you can live in that house the entire time, no other asset can benefit you while holding it
^ That's the key.
LVMH

Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #819 on: May 13, 2022, 09:52:33 am »
I actually don’t know what I am talking about…
that's no secret
slack

kosmo vinyl

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #820 on: May 13, 2022, 09:53:53 am »
David Lowery posts a press release about a new Camper Van Beethoven album generally mocking cyrpto, nfts, technology, etc.

David C Lowery
@davidclowery
Next
@TheBandCracker
 album will be a "physically encoded" NFT. Limited edition. You may purchase it with any fiat currency including the Canadian Peso. 

Facebook Group Members lose their stuffing over this

https://twitter.com/davidclowery/status/1524883904938795030?s=20&t=rcfTGo7_oYtCqFsT_e2j6A

Sweets can fill us all in the Canadian Peso :)
T.Rex

Starsky

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #821 on: May 13, 2022, 09:56:56 am »
Lowery has grown tiresome

Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #822 on: May 13, 2022, 09:57:05 am »
Sweets can fill us all in the Canadian Peso :)
dang beat me to the punch on that one
I mean people on the outside of our borders all look the same, so it's an honest mistake
slack

Julian, Forum COGNOSCENTI

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #823 on: May 13, 2022, 10:15:07 am »
Lowery has grown tiresome
EXTREMELY. Very much in "old man yells at cloud" territory.
LVMH

sweetcell

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Re: Twitter thread
« Reply #824 on: May 13, 2022, 01:39:50 pm »
odd reasoning...but that tracks (that he does odd things)

on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users


his reasoning is sound: the #1 thing you're acquiring when buying something like twitter is the user-base.  the code can be rewritten, the infrastructure can be replaced - but users can't (RE: "if you're not paying for the product, you ARE the product" - and twitter is free, so...)

so if you were promised only 5% bad apples, and there is more than 5%, you're not getting what you were promised.  also, getting bots and fake accounts off of twitter is one of elon's stated goals.  he needs to know how big the problem is.
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