The 2020 thread....

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

...voter turnout has always been THE issue  (to me)
I mostly think that, because I feel that an overwhelming majority of eligible voters are Dems or support liberal policies and we've been hijacked by a crafty (and at times illegal) minority focused on the long game and excellent at always getting to the polls

but at the same time, if we had record high turnout and they want to re-elect Trump....sobeit, the people have spoken

 experts say the 2020 voter turnout could be the highest in a century.

According to Michael McDonald, an elections expert at the University of Florida*, turnout for the 2020 presidential election could be as high as 67%
(Turnout in the 2016 presidential election was 60%.)
    Trump's driving turnout among those most unhappy with him (younger voters and people of color) even when he's not on the ballot.
    And Trump voters aren't a growing demographic group. The share of whites with less than a 4-year degree — Trump's constituency — dropped by 3% from 2014 to 2018.
Older white people already tend to vote at high rates, and they're close to their maximum turnout already.
By contrast, you'll see bigger turnout increases among young people, people of color, and low-income people — generally important constituencies for the Democratic Party — because they vote in lower numbers.


*...he is a Florida Man and at the same time not sure about the credibility of a Doobie Brother on US elections?

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

oh that's good
you may need to watch 73 episodes of GOT to get the inside joke

[vansmack]

...voter turnout has always been THE issue  (to me)

In the states that matter...

Let's not forget that Hillary Clinton received the second highest vote total in history, and still lost the electoral college by over 75 points.  She turned people out in Blue states that were already going to vote for her, but lost by slim margins in the swing states that mattered electorally. 

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

good to see  astronaut Mark Kelly may make AZ 2-D state!
Knew he was Scott Kelly's bro...but had no idea he was married to Gabby Giffords

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

good to see  astronaut Mark Kelly may make AZ 2-D state!
Knew he was Scott Kelly's bro...but had no idea he was married to Gabby Giffords

I knew he was Gabby Gifford's husband (this is in fact the only reason I was aware who he was pre-running for office) but was unaware he was Scott Kelly's bro. I am also unaware who Scott Kelly is. (I mean, obviously aside from him being Mark Kelly's bro.)

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

I am also unaware who Scott Kelly is.

In 2015, he set the record for the  single longest space mission (342 days) by an American* astronaut

(*Russian cosmonaut Valery Polyakov spent 438 consecutive days in space in 95)

He also had a great twitter feed with tons of photos from the ISS

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

So he's a dude who came in second. Wishing better for his bro, Mark, husband of Gabby, first of his name.

[vansmack]

They're not just brothers, they're twin brothers and have dedicated their lives to seeing the effects space travel has on the human body.   Their NASA Twin study is super cool stuff about how their bodies changed in space and morphed back (mostly) to the normal earth human build, in most cases.  Sometimes it did not.

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

Cool story, bro.

[Space Freely]

So he's a dude who came in second. Wishing better for his bro, Mark, husband of Gabby, first of his name.

Second to a guy with a chick's name.

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Yes, these are meaningless, but I like to watch the horse race as it happens...
The first debates will be held next month in Miami, even though the Iowa caucuses will not take place until February 2020.

Mayor Pete comes from behind to leave some big names in the dust.
Top 4 make sense
Surprised to see Julian in the top 10

Who are the top contenders?  (from the Hill 5/28) and yes this is a biased source, but I'm reading the hill more than most conservative rags, as it's not total masochistic cuckold of Trump

1. Former Vice President Joe Biden
Previous ranking: 2

2. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)
Previous ranking: 3

3. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass)
Previous ranking: 5

4. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)
Previous ranking: 1

5. South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D)
Previous ranking: n/a

6. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)
Previous ranking: 4

7. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.)
Previous ranking: 6

8. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)
Previous ranking: 7

9. Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro
Previous ranking: n/a

10. Businessman Andrew Yang
It's funny they rank him as 10th…and then say
It is virtually inconceivable that Yang will be the nominee

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Maybe bad news is what we need to get people to the polls?
but this makes me want to start drinking before 10AM


3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020

Steven Rattner, "car czar" and counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, cites three different modelers in his N.Y. Times commentary, "Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind."

The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers.

    Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."

    "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."

    "Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College."

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

Surprised to see Julian in the top 10

FOR THE FUTURE gets closer every day.

[hutch]

This is what I been saying....

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

In somewhat good news
...looks like Nevada is just a signature away from adding it's 6 votes to the National Popular Vote interstate compact
Maine's 4 are not not far behind

both only get us to 199...71 short of what we need
 (and even if we get 270...not guaranteed it won't get shut down by the Supremes.)

Gotta come at this election from all angles...
Get the vote out
Make it easier to register (auto registration with Drivers license should be mandatory in all states)
Make early voting absentee voting available in all states
stop gerrymandering where we can
NPV
and Felons...