The 2020 thread....

[nkotb]

Yep

sounds like we agree....

Also agree

(he's all style and zero substance IMO),

It worked for Barack Obama.

[gavroche]

Beto isn't really my cup of tea (he's all style and zero substance IMO), but obviously I'd support him against Cruz. You couldn't ask for a better race to gain national attention...young, good-looking, punk rock-loving dude clearly ripping off Obama vs. loathsome melted gargoyle.  It's not wonder everyone was invested in him.

But transitioning immediately from a loss to a presidential run seems like it would only hurt you long-term, where as staying local and winning would just build the brand.

Yeah, it's staggering to me that Beto took this leap. I'm sure he had a lot of establishment folks in his ear about it (I think those Pod Save dip shits really backed him...their production company even produced that Running with Beto thing on HBO), but to blindly assume the momentum of running against a toad like Cruz would translate to a presidential run seems like such a bad miscalculation.

He did raise a Significant amount of money from outside of texas (like $25Mil)
My mom (FL/NY) and I know an number of people here in the DC are who supported his senate run

Now mostly because they hate Cruz, but he's got the kind of charisma we need in a presidential candidate

But I think he should WIN a senate seat first or Govnership...then run in 2028 or 2032

Problem for Beto is that he is from Texas and so he has nowhere local to go.  The Ted Cruz race was his best chance to win statewide.  Everyone hates Ted Cruz (even his Republican colleagues).  He raised a ton of money in 2018,  but coming off a loss and in a Presidential race he's not going to get the same support.  Plus the longer he's in government the more he gets defined and the more he angers people.  I feel like his moment is now or never (and it just might be never).

[Julian, Bespoke SEXPERT]

100% agree with gavroche. What else is he going to do?

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Problem for Beto is that he is from Texas and so he has nowhere local to go.  The Ted Cruz race was his best chance to win statewide.  Everyone hates Ted Cruz (even his Republican colleagues).  He raised a ton of money in 2018,  but coming off a loss and in a Presidential race he's not going to get the same support.  Plus the longer he's in government the more he gets defined and the more he angers people.  I feel like his moment is now or never (and it just might be never).

which is an easier win?
Cruz v Beto 2016
v
Cornyn v Beto 2020

I think he has a chance with Cornyn...nation wide Cruz is despised, but obviously has some support in TX
I don't know enough about TX or Cornyn to know if this is a good idea or not
sucks he has to decide by Dec 9th...that's the issue here

Also MJ Hegar, female Air Force helicopter pilot and combat Vet is already running and getting some attention...especially from the DNC

would love to get a dem in texas...but there's this
Democrats have not won statewide in Texas in 25 years.

[Space Freely]

100% agree with gavroche. What else is he going to do?

Front a Ramones cover band while wearing a onesie and a sheep mask.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hV7h1DuotU

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

100% agree with gavroche. What else is he going to do?

Front a Ramones cover band while wearing a onesie and a sheep mask.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hV7h1DuotU

at least he's got a plan B if this politics thing doesn't work out

[Space Freely]

100% agree with gavroche. What else is he going to do?

Front a Ramones cover band while wearing a onesie and a sheep mask.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hV7h1DuotU

at least he's got a plan B if this politics thing doesn't work out

Live off his wife's money like a true punk rocker.

[vansmack]

Are we catching up on our weekend Economist reading in this thread?

The Senate, the Senate
Democrats running for president are selling plans to transform America
The Senate is likely to render them mere pipe-dreams

Democrats have not won statewide in Texas in 25 years.[/i]

True.  But they did pick up 2 state Senate seats and 12 seats in the State House in a midterm election where turnout generally favors Republicans.

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Are we catching up on our weekend Economist reading in this thread?

I've become a full-on Axios junkie
I do think I need to fit Economist in there more (although $220 a year for the digital sub is making me think I won't be reading much)

heard this woman talk the other day and this sounds interesting

[gavroche]

Are we catching up on our weekend Economist reading in this thread?

The Senate, the Senate
Democrats running for president are selling plans to transform America
The Senate is likely to render them mere pipe-dreams

Democrats have not won statewide in Texas in 25 years.[/i]

True.  But they did pick up 2 state Senate seats and 12 seats in the State House in a midterm election where turnout generally favors Republicans.

This analysis really depends on what you think happened in 2018 and what it means for 2020.  Was 2018 a normal midterm and so we should expect Dems to do better in 2020?  Did Trump energize both bases and so you should expect similar patterns in 2020?  Or will Trump being on the ballot actually increase R turnout in 2020, thus making it harder for Dems to win state wise? 

My sense is that Trump being on the ballot will help R's in Texas in 2020; but that's just my gut.


It also depends a bit on what you think is more telling.  Cornyn has lower positives and lower negatives than Cruz.  Is it better or worse to have everyone already locked in on you?  My sense is that Cornyn is a stronger candidate than Cruz... but you can credibly make both arguments.   

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

My sense is that Trump being on the ballot will help R's in Texas in 2020; but that's just my gut.

my sense is that Cornyn is a stronger candidate than Cruz.

you are a very sense-itive person I see

although I want to believe different...you nailed it on #1
#2...hard to say.  I really don't know how the avg Texan thinks of Cruz...sounds like they are split, but he had enough of a base to deliver the mid-term election. 
I don't really know how anyone can like Cruz, but alas he has a deep base.   Was #3 or 4 in the 2016 republican primary too

Cornyn....he seems like a texan's texan and will be hard to unseat that incumbent
but Beto proved he can turn out the vote, I think if he's on the ticket and can really energize Dems to come to the polls...could also be a game changer on who TX picks for pres....but I'm not holding my breath

Just found this from feb
Cornyn less popular than Cruz in Texas: poll

I think the DNC is really liking MJ Hegar
Military women seem to be like a wining strategy and I can't really argue with that

[gavroche]

My sense is that Trump being on the ballot will help R's in Texas in 2020; but that's just my gut.

my sense is that Cornyn is a stronger candidate than Cruz.

you are a very sense-itive person I see

although I want to believe different...you nailed it on #1
#2...hard to say.  I really don't know how the avg Texan thinks of Cruz...sounds like they are split, but he had enough of a base to deliver the mid-term election. 
I don't really know how anyone can like Cruz, but alas he has a deep base.   Was #3 or 4 in the 2016 republican primary too

Cornyn....he seems like a texan's texan and will be hard to unseat that incumbent
but Beto proved he can turn out the vote, I think if he's on the ticket and can really energize Dems to come to the polls...could also be a game changer on who TX picks for pres....but I'm not holding my breath

Just found this from feb
Cornyn less popular than Cruz in Texas: poll

I think the DNC is really liking MJ Hegar
Military women seem to be like a wining strategy and I can't really argue with that

That's the poll I was referring to.  Notice Cornyn is less popular, but he also has less people that hate also polls much less negatively too.  I think in an R leaning state that would make Cornyn a stronger candidate because he has more potential upside.  But again, just my instincts; I'm definitely not a Texan.

[Dejecty-hatch lııllı|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl]

Beto and Bill going with Strummer! (which means they will lose )
John D with a good pick for a candidate
Gillibrand going with the only edgy pick on here
Tim Ryan should be booted out on that pick alone

19 Democratic candidates visited the Iowa Democratic Party's Hall of Fame yesterday to deliver a five-minute campaign pitch to a throng of state party activists — and they hit the stage with a walk-out song of their own choosing, per TIME's Lissandra Villa:

    Michael Bennet: "The Rising," Bruce Springsteen
    Cory Booker: "Lovely Day," Bill Withers
    Steve Bullock: "Small Town," John Mellencamp
    Pete Buttigieg: "Never Giving Up," Batchelor
    Bill de Blasio: "Rudie Can't Fail," The Clash
    John Delaney: "I've Been Everywhere," Johnny Cash
    Tulsi Gabbard: "Ain't No Mountain High Enough," Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell
    Kirsten Gillibrand: "Good as Hell," Lizzo
    Kamala Harris: "Work That," Mary J. Blige
    John Hickenlooper: "Good Life," OneRepublic
    Jay Inslee: "Mr. Blue Sky," Electric Light Orchestra
    Amy Klobuchar: "The Bullpen," Dessa
    Beto O'Rourke: "Clampdown," The Clash
    Tim Ryan: "Old Town Road," Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus
    Bernie Sanders: "Power to the People," John Lennon
    Eric Swalwell: "Caught Up in the Country," Rodney Atkins
    Elizabeth Warren: "9 to 5," Dolly Parton
    Marianne Williamson: "Higher Ground," Stevie Wonder
    Andrew Yang: "Return of the Mack," Mark Morrison

[gavroche]

I think the DNC is really liking MJ Hegar
Military women seem to be like a wining strategy and I can't really argue with that

Sadly, I think you need to make that White Military Women.  (Though I not so secretly think that Tammy Duckworth would be the Dems strongest candidate against Trump in a national election).

[gavroche]

    Eric Swalwell: "Caught Up in the Country," Rodney Atkins

I have no idea why Swalwell thinks he can pull this off.

And Mayor Pete's pick seems kind of edgy to me.