Looks like we're going to set the death record for the second straight day. What's with all this talk about things leveling off? The UWash models said we were supposed to peak five days ago. Then it changed to Monday. Now Tues and Wed and it's hitting new highs when it looked like we'd be declining.
aww c'mon Space, you're a stats guy - you know that when you're developing a model on the fly for a novel situation and with incomplete data, the model's predictions are going to change every time you insert new data and/or revise the old data. consider how much we don't know: infection rates (due to lack of testing), mortality rate, intensity of the outbreak (aka R0), distribution of immunity (antibodies), whether antibodies are even relevant with this disease, etc... with so many squishy unknowns and tenuous assumptions, any wonder that the models' outputs change regularly?
