once again the jokes write themselves...

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

Originally posted by callat703:
 I think anywhere it is that close, provisional balloting and absentee ballots - which take longer to count - are going to benefit Obama far more than McCain.

Absentee ballots 99.999% of the time favor Republicans.

[Sage 703]

Originally posted by Julian, certified WEBLEBRITY:
   

Originally posted by callat703:
 I think anywhere it is that close, provisional balloting and absentee ballots - which take longer to count - are going to benefit Obama far more than McCain.

Absentee ballots 99.999% of the time favor Republicans. [/b]

Where is the proof of this in this election?

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

Originally posted by callat703:
  Where is the proof of this in this election?

You're right, no statistics are relevant prior to 2008.   :roll:   Who files the majority of absentee ballots? The military. Who does the military overwhelmingly support? Republicans.
 
 If you want to argue against conventional wisdom, how about you show me absentee ballot figures that show the Dems had a better "get out the absentee ballot" program in other states in 2008?

[Sage 703]

Originally posted by Julian, certified WEBLEBRITY:
     

Originally posted by callat703:
  Where is the proof of this in this election?

You're right, no statistics are relevant prior to 2008.      :roll:      Who files the majority of absentee ballots? The military. Who does the military overwhelmingly support? Republicans.
 
 If you want to argue against conventional wisdom, how about you show me absentee ballot figures that show the Dems had a better "get out the absentee ballot" program in other states in 2008? [/b]

You mean like in Washington DC, where all early voting was conducted by absentee ballot?
 
 http://www.wusa9.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=77754&catid=188
 
 I'm just asking you for the proof of what you're saying - including the two statements you just made, about the military filing the majority of absentee ballots and that the military overwhelmingly supports the GOP in this election.  I haven't seen those stats, and I'd like to.
 
 And yes, I do think conventional wisdom, based upon previous elections, is less useful in an election with record turnout and different demographic breakdowns.

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

Originally posted by callat703:
  And yes, I do think conventional wisdom, based upon previous elections, is less useful in an election with record turnout and different demographic breakdowns.

With record turnout, McCain had 6,000 more votes than Obama in the at the polls voting. What leads you to believe absentee ballots are going to break differently? You're the one arguing against conventional wisdom, what's your basis for doing so?

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

Actually, I'm not going to discuss issues with anyone who isn't aware that (a) absentee ballots traditionally break heavily for Republicans, and (b) active members of the military overwhelmingly vote Republican, yes, even when Obama is the democrat. (Actually, probably especially since he wants to "end" the war and then they'll be considered "losers" and have nothing to live for.)
 
 http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/21/poll-troops-support-mccain/
 
 I'm sure Obama had a 40 point turnaround in the final week with members of the military.

[Sage 703]

Originally posted by Julian, certified WEBLEBRITY:
   

Originally posted by callat703:
  And yes, I do think conventional wisdom, based upon previous elections, is less useful in an election with record turnout and different demographic breakdowns.

With record turnout, McCain had 6,000 more votes than Obama in the at the polls voting. What leads you to believe absentee ballots are going to break differently? You're the one arguing against conventional wisdom, what's your basis for doing so? [/b]

Because, like in Washington DC, early voting in Missouri is conducted by absentee ballot.  And the Obama campaign - across the board - was far better at getting out the early vote.
 
 http://www.kmov.com/news/Election/missouri/stories/kmov_election_080922_earlyvoting.9f6f20c1.html

[Sage 703]

Originally posted by Julian, certified WEBLEBRITY:
  Actually, I'm not going to discuss issues with anyone who isn't aware that (a) absentee ballots traditionally break heavily for Republicans, and (b) active members of the military overwhelmingly vote Republican, yes, even when Obama is the democrat. (Actually, probably especially since he wants to "end" the war and then they'll be considered "losers" and have nothing to live for.)
 
    http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/21/poll-troops-support-mccain/  
 
 I'm sure Obama had a 40 point turnaround in the final week with members of the military.

Ahh yes, good poll to cite:
 
 "The Military Times, which publishes the Army Times, Navy Times, Marine Corps Times and Air Force Times, polled 80,000 subscribers from Sept 22 to Sept. 29. The non-scientific survey gathered 4,300 respondents -- all of them registered and eligible to vote."
 
 and later:
 
 The Military Times offered certain caveats for its poll, which was open only to its 80,000 subscribers. Responses were entirely voluntary and were not focused on a representative sample of the public, as scientific polls are. The troops polled were also somewhat older than average enlisted service members and included more officers than is representative of the military as a whole.
 
 Come on Julian.  You're going to be that condescending when you clearly didn't even read the source you posted?  And you really think the Military Times subscriber list is an accurate sample of military personnel?
 
 And I didn't say I thought you were wrong, I said I wanted proof.  And you provide a non-scientific survey from the Military Times.  Right.

[Sage 703]

Not only that, even if that poll is accurate, it doesn't prove anything.  
 
 Show me numbers that prove that military absentee ballots are substantially more prevalent than say, college student absentee ballots.  I don't know if you're right or not - but I'm curious to know what is factual and what is conjecture.

[Sage 703]

Try this as a source:
 
  http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-fg-troops6-2008nov06,0,7144850.story
 
 In Tuesday's election, 15% of voters were military veterans, and 54% of them voted for John McCain -- a 3-point decrease from Bush's take in 2004, according to the National Election Pool exit poll.
 
 In addition, campaign support for Democratic presidential candidates also increased during the just-ended election cycle. The Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks political donations, said that through 2007, Democrats received 40% of the $804,000 in contributions from uniformed service members, up from 18% in 2000.
 
 The center said that by the end of August 2008, Obama had received more money from military donors with overseas addresses -- $74,650 compared with $16,600 for McCain -- as well as from employees of the uniformed branches: $340,400 compared with $321,500.
 
 The most comprehensive look at the military vote is an annual survey by the privately owned Military Times newspaper, which in a voluntary poll of 4,300 subscribers in September found overwhelming support for McCain, 68%, compared with 23% for Obama.
 
 But Feaver noted that the Military Times surveys tend to target older officers, who are far more conservative than younger enlisted personnel.
 
 It is a factor that seemed clear Wednesday in east Baghdad, where six of seven soldiers at a base interviewed at random said they backed Obama.

[twangirl]

Originally posted by Julian, certified WEBLEBRITY:
  Actually, I'm not going to discuss issues with anyone who isn't aware that (a) absentee ballots traditionally break heavily for Republicans
 
 

This may be true, but there was a lot about this election that was NOT traditional, especially in terms of record voter turnout across the board, including absentee voting. So even if this has been a documented fact in the past, it may not be relevant to this election.

[Julian, Alleged Computer F**kface]

Originally posted by twangirl:
  This may be true, but there was a lot about this election that was NOT traditional, especially in terms of record voter turnout across the board, including absentee voting. So even if this has been a documented fact in the past, it may not be relevant to this election.

If one is going to argue that the traditional patterns of absentee ballots don't count, THAT PERSON is the one who needs evidence of the abnormality, not the person armed with 40+ years of voting records. And no, going "a lot of things weren't traditional" doesn't certify that we're in crazy world and up is down and all the red states voted blue and blue states, red, and absentee ballots are now going strongly Democratic.

[sonickteam2]

i did hear on NPR something about how early voting and absentee voting and such couldn't be counted as heavy republican like in years past, but i was only partly paying attention and dont feel like looking it up at this hour, maybe tomorow.  But callat703 MAY have somewhat of a point.  Either way, it didnt look like Missouri was going to go Obama, but it doesnt much matter anyway.

[sweetcell]

interesting read: Maps of the 2008 US presidential election results
 
 summary: geographic map of presidential election results gives impression that republicans won the election:
 
     <img src="http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/countymapredbluer512.png" alt=" - " />
 
 but if you scale the sizes of counties to be proportional to their population, you get a map that clearly shows that the dems won:
 
     <img src="http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/countycartredblue512.png" alt=" - " />  
 
 incidentally, the above is also how one typicaly inteprets a map when high on acid.

[manimtired]

mods!!! if i would to say the latter map was how people interpreted the map on crack id be racist!!! flag this and ban him!!!