Author Topic: The 2020 thread....  (Read 49663 times)

Julian, Adroit TASTEMAKER

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1920 on: April 09, 2020, 07:24:06 pm »
The competition was scared that Bernie would win with a plurality (like Trump did)
Trump had a delegate majority by a pretty comfortable margin in 2016, not a plurality.

Trump had a delegate majority with a plurality of the votes. He only got 45% of the votes in the Republican primary, total.
Thatís true.
LVMH

Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1921 on: April 09, 2020, 07:32:17 pm »
The competition was scared that Bernie would win with a plurality (like Trump did)
Trump had a delegate majority by a pretty comfortable margin in 2016, not a plurality.
mostly because of the GOP does the winner take all
I think he won a lot of states with way less than 50%
he won Super Tuesday with 34% of the vote (overall...he did win 7 of the 11, but none cracking 50% on any the states he won)

Primaries should really be ranked choice...trump would have never won if they were like that
60% of the GOP primary voters were not voting for him
but they all fell in line quick
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 07:34:27 pm by Laughing Curve hatch ılıl|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|lılı »
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gavroche

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1922 on: April 09, 2020, 07:39:21 pm »
And Pete was dead when he came in behind Biden in NV

Had he come in ahead of Biden he might  have had a chance to do a bit better in SC but when he got that blown out it was over

I think it's pretty clear, the center of the Democratic Party is bigger than the the left on election night.  The left can only win by pulling new voters.

The left (Bernie, EW) has more passionate and committed voters.  That's reflected online and in small donations.

The center has more big money donors.

The left can still only win if there are enough central candidates to split the vote.

We disagree on whether Biden had an overwhelming victory or if it was a case of everyone else deciding to drop out because Bernie was a threat. 

Pete and Amy never had a chance to win on their own unless all of the other moderates dropped out.  Their only viable pathways were brokered conventions.

Bernie was never getting above 35 or 40%, so his only chance was to get the majority of the delegates with a plurality of the voters (or close enough that it would have been difficult for the party not to pick him).  He needed a bunch of folks to be sticking around while getting 14 or 15 percent and to be able to build the perception of inevitability. 

538 still had no one receiving the majority of the delegates as the overwhelmingly most likely outcome before Pete and Amy dropped out together and Biden with only a slim chance of winning a majority.  I don't see how that is him wiping the floor, it looks a lot more like a brokered convention pre-convention to me.  Nothing wrong with that, I just don't think it is an indicator that Biden is a strong candidate or that he has a lot of support.  I think he's weaker than HRC was in 2016, and Trump is stronger.  The real hope is if the left takes this election more seriously (and it is allowed to take place honestly).     

« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 07:43:02 pm by gavroche »

gavroche

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1923 on: April 09, 2020, 07:45:01 pm »
Primaries should really be ranked choice...trump would have never won if they were like that
60% of the GOP primary voters were not voting for him
but they all fell in line quick

I strongly support this, but I think the left of the Democratic Party would benefit under this system. 

I'm not as sure what it would do for the Republicans, but I do agree Trump wouldn't have won.

Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1924 on: April 10, 2020, 12:54:03 pm »
I think DJT thinks you guys are all wrong about Warren and Bernie

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Nobody wants to say that if Elizabeth Warren gets out of the race before Super Tuesday, Crazy Bernie Sanders wins virtually every state in a blowout...NOT EVEN CLOSE!  I havenít heard one member of the Fake News Establishment even mention this irrefutable fact. FAKE NEWS!



Irrefutable??
I've not done the math, but if every single warren vote goes to bernie, this would not give him a blow out in virtually every state?
I  know he lies all the time....


Found this pretty quick
Bidenís margin over Sanders was larger than Warrenís total vote in five of the Super Tuesday states he carried (Alabama, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Arkansas).

And you might as well add a sixth where Biden would have surely won anyway: Oklahoma, where his margin over Bernie (13.3 percent) means that virtually every single one of the 13.4 percent voting for Warren there would have had to pull the lever for Sanders to catapult him to victory.


alas I guess is an effort to get unhappy Sanders supporters come to the Republican Party
Even the berniebros can do math, so not likely
« Last Edit: April 10, 2020, 12:58:40 pm by Laughing Curve hatch ılıl|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|lılı »
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kosmo vinyl

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1925 on: April 10, 2020, 01:33:49 pm »
Just look at results in Michigan for Super Tuesday a State won by Sanders in 2016.  Warren got less than 2% there.  Bloomberg has got more votes than Warren Biden got votes where Sanders succeed last time around.  Some analysis suggested it was sexism that helped propel him last time around. 
T.Rex

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1926 on: April 10, 2020, 01:48:59 pm »
You had to know a campaign strategy was to have faux news endlessly repeat the word socialism if Bernie was the candidate..
T.Rex

Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1927 on: April 10, 2020, 02:43:36 pm »
You had to know a campaign strategy was to have faux news endlessly repeat the word socialism if Bernie was the candidate..

Have you seen the (coordinated) tweets from GOP senators with the #BernieIsStillOnTheBallot
they are still trying to find a way to keep socialism on the ballot
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sweetcell

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1928 on: April 10, 2020, 06:20:32 pm »
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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1929 on: April 13, 2020, 05:02:41 pm »
Mighty proud to be a Virginian lately...now it's a law for no-excuse absentee ballot!  (not quite votebymail...but getting there)

Only wish they'd done a little better on Pot reform....but other than that, kicking ass and taking names

Virginia governor makes Election Day a holiday and expands early voting

The new legislation also repeals the current Lee-Jackson day holiday which honored Robert E. Lee and Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson  and replacing it by making Election Day a state holiday..
"

Just a state holiday...so not really sure that many people other than people working for the state of VA
but it's a start
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hutch

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1930 on: April 13, 2020, 07:27:20 pm »
VA= third least Covid 19 tests per million in US

Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1931 on: April 13, 2020, 07:31:50 pm »
VA= third least Covid 19 tests per million in US
wrong thread, but that's not good news
especially when the reddest of MAGA states are way ahead

Do you think that is state Gov't lack of response? Or is there some other reason
I would think there is a very transient population in VA and that would make it risky compared to other states
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hutch

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1932 on: April 13, 2020, 07:42:17 pm »
I have no idea


The Governor is a Dr and seemingly all about public health


Julian, Adroit TASTEMAKER

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1933 on: April 13, 2020, 08:16:42 pm »
Only wish they'd done a little better on Pot reform....but other than that, kicking ass and taking names
Unless COVID totally details all was, this is coming in the next two years.

Just a state holiday...so not really sure that many people other than people working for the state of VA
but it's a start
It does nothing for the poorest percentage of the population whose jobs most interfere with getting to the polls.
LVMH

hutch

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #1934 on: April 13, 2020, 08:29:01 pm »
I see it as a goal for federal government and we have to start somewhere

But I guess federal government canít compel Texas , for example, right?

Not to mention the specter of Supreme Court overriding anything remotely progressive

I have to believe come November Republicans are going to get wiped out