Author Topic: The 2020 thread....  (Read 98017 times)

vansmack

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #810 on: July 11, 2019, 04:23:13 pm »
Nate Silver @NateSilver538  Jul 9 2:55 PM
But if you're not providing for, say, a 15-20% chance of [INSERT CANDIDATE NAME HERE] winning, your mental and/or statistical model is overconfident.

I feel as though he won many very open and contentious arguments by saying something similar in his projections of Trump possibly winning in 2016, with an even higher percentage of odds.
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Julian, Adroit TOFURKEY-MAKER

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #811 on: July 11, 2019, 04:23:24 pm »
then there's jules, but that's jules... and you two have history.
To be fair, I said nothing about Hutch.

I just spit out liquid at someone else's joke about Hutch and then sang a jingle about a third-person's suggestion that people block Hutch. I'm leaving it to other people to do the heavy lifting of the #NeverHutch movement this week.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 06:51:54 pm by Julian, Adroit TASTEMAKER »
LVMH

Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #812 on: July 11, 2019, 04:50:18 pm »
anyone looking forward to a Gov't shut down in the early fall...

he Bipartisan Policy Center earlier this week warned that there is a "significant risk" for a breach of the debt ceiling in September, revising its prior prediction of October or November.
LAMF

Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #813 on: July 11, 2019, 04:52:15 pm »
Nate Silver @NateSilver538  Jul 9 2:55 PM
But if you're not providing for, say, a 15-20% chance of [INSERT CANDIDATE NAME HERE] winning, your mental and/or statistical model is overconfident.

I feel as though he won many very open and contentious arguments by saying something similar in his projections of Trump possibly winning in 2016, with an even higher percentage of odds.

first I was all excited by his 'I think McGrath has a shot.' tweet

 but that's why I posted his second tweet which pretty much said...no she doesn't
LAMF

Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #814 on: July 11, 2019, 06:37:17 pm »
trump taking a new tack on this....
Ultimately I hold Mitch and co responsible for this shit...he's unchecked on every level and just keeps creating a new normal.
it's not MAGA its Make America a Despotic State

Trump backs away from census citizenship question, direct agencies to hand over citizenship information to Commerce
"We are not backing down on our effort to determine the citizenship status of the US population," Trump said in laying out a plan to issue an executive order asking US departments and agencies to find ways to determine a head-count of citizens.
Trump said agencies would be required to provide the Commerce Department with documents and records of citizens and non-citizens, which he said would help provide an accurate picture of US citizenship.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 07:03:20 pm by Ploonet-Hatch ılıll|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|̲̅̅=̲̅̅|̲̅̅●̲̅̅|llıl »
LAMF

Just give it to me

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #815 on: July 11, 2019, 06:51:44 pm »
Thatís great news

vansmack

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #816 on: July 11, 2019, 06:59:13 pm »
trump taking a new tack on this....

Not really.  His tack all along was to rile up the left while placating to his base.  This new "tack" - which will never come to fruition - is the same.

It's his tried and true pattern and it's so damn effective: get the left fired up, make my base happy all while changing ABSOLUTELY nothing.
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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #817 on: July 11, 2019, 07:02:46 pm »
trump taking a new tack on this....

Not really.  His tack all along was to rile up the left while placating to his base.  This new "tack" - which will never come to fruition - is the same.

It's his tried and true pattern and it's so damn effective: get the left fired up, make my base happy all while changing ABSOLUTELY nothing.
ok...that is 100% correct
although they keep chanting 'he's delivered on EVERY promise he's ever made"
how do we combat that misconception

he is so good at getting liberals panties in a knot (is that now an inappropriate cliche in #metoo?)
LAMF

gavroche

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #818 on: July 11, 2019, 07:08:11 pm »
trump taking a new tack on this....

Not really.  His tack all along was to rile up the left while placating to his base.  This new "tack" - which will never come to fruition - is the same.

It's his tried and true pattern and it's so damn effective: get the left fired up, make my base happy all while changing ABSOLUTELY nothing.
ok...that is 100% correct
although they keep chanting 'he's delivered on EVERY promise he's ever made"
how do we combat that misconception

he is so good at getting liberals panties in a knot (is that now an inappropriate cliche in #metoo?)

This was a good outcome.  It will help with the integrity of the census (though they will find other means to try to undercount minorities).  And of course the R's will continue to pitch new ways to try to reshape the electorate in their favor.

vansmack

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #819 on: July 11, 2019, 07:52:58 pm »
how do we combat that misconception

Why bother?  Are you ever going to change the mind of his base?  Do you even need to in order to win this election?

Start focusing on sensible economic policies that will change the minds of ~700,000 voters in 6 key states instead of seeing who can jerk whom off furthest to the left.   

And, please, ignore the distractions.
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Julian, Adroit TOFURKEY-MAKER

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #820 on: July 11, 2019, 08:16:09 pm »
Start focusing on sensible economic policies that will change the minds of ~700,000 voters in 6 key states instead of seeing who can jerk whom off furthest to the left.   
Y. E. S.

Talk about the economic issues of white people. Not social issues. No deplorables. Not [insert group here]ís rights. Take care of all those issues once elected. But only talk about white peoples economic issues and pick someone to blame for it and we will win.

I have no confidence we will do that.
LVMH

Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #821 on: July 11, 2019, 08:20:52 pm »
how do we combat that misconception
Why bother?  Are you ever going to change the mind of his base?  Do you even need to in order to win this election?
I come to this board sometimes for Political Therapy.
I like the variety of inputs and perspectives (although without ratbastard, all are just slight left to antifa) crafting arguments and reasoning with sentences and not bumper sticker slogans (could probably have slightly less insults tho)

But, this is sound advice
Why bother?

I need to keep reminding my self, no matter how many times I tell his base that he wears no clothes, they will NEVER believe it...especially if I'm the messenger

It's like raising a toddler, you really can't use logic.  It's pointless and will only frustrate yourself

My only caveat on that is, some of this shit is SOOO freaking far from the norm I've known all my life.
I feel like I could say about 100 things off the top of my head that are absolutely insane in the last 2 yrs

my concern is its all about shock and awe and I'm going to miss 1 or 2 supremely important issues

But Why bother?

At least with the bitching and complaining and trying to change peoples minds
It will do no good and only frustrate me.
There is a huge list of watchdogs that are watching...so let them get the ulcers
Quote
Start focusing on sensible economic policies that will change the minds of ~700,000 voters in 6 key states instead of seeing who can jerk whom off furthest to the left.   
I'm pretty certain that I'll have little impact
but I think what your trying to say (knows no fury greater than when he tries to speak FOR Smakie)
Is I need to find the candidate who has a sensible economic policies
and make sure they are laser focused on those people and support them in voice and money (optional)

Quote
And, please, ignore the distractions.

did you say something?
LAMF

nkotb

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #822 on: July 11, 2019, 08:28:48 pm »
Also, wild to think anyone would call this a distraction TBH.

Just give it to me

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #823 on: July 11, 2019, 08:41:41 pm »
Funny I thought I had been saying the same thing

vansmack

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Re: The 2020 thread....
« Reply #824 on: July 11, 2019, 09:42:20 pm »
Also, wild to think anyone would call this a distraction TBH.

It was never going to pass the courts in time to be included on the Census form.  From day one.

They just needed to get the base to think he was trying - and he got an easy political win for his efforts.

The more he makes the left look crazy to the center, the better chance he has at being  re-elected.
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